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	<title>Comments on: Yu Darvish and Updated Projections</title>
	<atom:link href="http://steamerprojections.com/blog/yu-darvish-and-updated-projections/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://steamerprojections.com/blog/yu-darvish-and-updated-projections/</link>
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		<title>By: Daily Notes: It&#8217;s Yu Darvish Night in America &#124; FanGraphs Baseball</title>
		<link>http://steamerprojections.com/blog/yu-darvish-and-updated-projections/#comment-485</link>
		<dc:creator>Daily Notes: It&#8217;s Yu Darvish Night in America &#124; FanGraphs Baseball</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Apr 2012 14:16:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://steamerprojections.com/blog/?p=310#comment-485</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] debut for the Rangers tonight. He ended spring training with a 21:8 K:BB in just 15.0 innings. Steamer projects Darvish to post a 4.01 ERA, 7.4 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9. ZiPS is slightly more optimistic: 3.62 [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] debut for the Rangers tonight. He ended spring training with a 21:8 K:BB in just 15.0 innings. Steamer projects Darvish to post a 4.01 ERA, 7.4 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9. ZiPS is slightly more optimistic: 3.62 [...]</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: J. Cross</title>
		<link>http://steamerprojections.com/blog/yu-darvish-and-updated-projections/#comment-464</link>
		<dc:creator>J. Cross</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Apr 2012 00:19:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://steamerprojections.com/blog/?p=310#comment-464</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We hope to have one last update -- MLB is really toying with us with all these false starts.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We hope to have one last update &#8212; MLB is really toying with us with all these false starts.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: J. Cross</title>
		<link>http://steamerprojections.com/blog/yu-darvish-and-updated-projections/#comment-463</link>
		<dc:creator>J. Cross</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Apr 2012 00:17:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://steamerprojections.com/blog/?p=310#comment-463</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thanks.  I don&#039;t think we&#039;ll be able to add more players this year *but* in the future we should be able to be completely comprehensive and this might include a midseason update.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks.  I don&#8217;t think we&#8217;ll be able to add more players this year *but* in the future we should be able to be completely comprehensive and this might include a midseason update.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: hankp101</title>
		<link>http://steamerprojections.com/blog/yu-darvish-and-updated-projections/#comment-459</link>
		<dc:creator>hankp101</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Apr 2012 17:57:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://steamerprojections.com/blog/?p=310#comment-459</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jared
Do you anticipate any more updates before the season starts in earnest? Love the site!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jared<br />
Do you anticipate any more updates before the season starts in earnest? Love the site!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Washington Irving</title>
		<link>http://steamerprojections.com/blog/yu-darvish-and-updated-projections/#comment-437</link>
		<dc:creator>Washington Irving</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Mar 2012 22:54:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://steamerprojections.com/blog/?p=310#comment-437</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Games projections are critical for many competitive fantasy baseball leagues, apart from their value in projecting PA. In daily leagues, you should basically never have a player not playing. Even when their absence is the result of just being benched for the day, there is the chance in many leagues to replace them with another player off the bench or free agency.

In my league, nobody finishes near the top of the standings without more or less getting 162 games per position. Knowing how a certain player got to 650 PA is a big deal in evaluating what someone&#039;s counting stats actually mean. 

Alex Gordon bats leadoff, so he reached 690 PA in &quot;only&quot; 151 games. That means for the other 11 games, players in a standard 5x5 league can accumulate R, RBI, SB, and HR for &quot;free&quot; the rest of the time. Depending on the league, you can replace him with WIll Venable (below replacement level based on your SGP levels), and get another 4 RBI, 5 R, 1.5 SB, and 1 HR out of Gordon that way.

It would be a great help to get a games projection.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Games projections are critical for many competitive fantasy baseball leagues, apart from their value in projecting PA. In daily leagues, you should basically never have a player not playing. Even when their absence is the result of just being benched for the day, there is the chance in many leagues to replace them with another player off the bench or free agency.</p>
<p>In my league, nobody finishes near the top of the standings without more or less getting 162 games per position. Knowing how a certain player got to 650 PA is a big deal in evaluating what someone&#8217;s counting stats actually mean. </p>
<p>Alex Gordon bats leadoff, so he reached 690 PA in &#8220;only&#8221; 151 games. That means for the other 11 games, players in a standard 5&#215;5 league can accumulate R, RBI, SB, and HR for &#8220;free&#8221; the rest of the time. Depending on the league, you can replace him with WIll Venable (below replacement level based on your SGP levels), and get another 4 RBI, 5 R, 1.5 SB, and 1 HR out of Gordon that way.</p>
<p>It would be a great help to get a games projection.</p>
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		<title>By: MP</title>
		<link>http://steamerprojections.com/blog/yu-darvish-and-updated-projections/#comment-428</link>
		<dc:creator>MP</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Mar 2012 08:15:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://steamerprojections.com/blog/?p=310#comment-428</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Kelvin Herrera is missing.  Thanks.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kelvin Herrera is missing.  Thanks.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Brad</title>
		<link>http://steamerprojections.com/blog/yu-darvish-and-updated-projections/#comment-416</link>
		<dc:creator>Brad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Mar 2012 15:59:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://steamerprojections.com/blog/?p=310#comment-416</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;m with you on this.  I&#039;d like to see QS&#039;s and CG&#039;s in projections for my points leagues.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m with you on this.  I&#8217;d like to see QS&#8217;s and CG&#8217;s in projections for my points leagues.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Brad</title>
		<link>http://steamerprojections.com/blog/yu-darvish-and-updated-projections/#comment-415</link>
		<dc:creator>Brad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Mar 2012 15:57:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://steamerprojections.com/blog/?p=310#comment-415</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I don&#039;t really focus on that.  I just figure out pts/g and extrapolate a players pts/wk if his games are below the average at his position.  That gives me a baseline value to compare with other players.  Although, I came up with a new idea yesterday.  Instead of doing per week, I&#039;m going to do per 10 games by multiplying pts/g by 10 to get a more significant value than pts/g.  I dunno why I didn&#039;t think of it before this year.  I used to do my own projections but I&#039;m unable to find the time anymore.  Thanks for listening to my suggestion.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t really focus on that.  I just figure out pts/g and extrapolate a players pts/wk if his games are below the average at his position.  That gives me a baseline value to compare with other players.  Although, I came up with a new idea yesterday.  Instead of doing per week, I&#8217;m going to do per 10 games by multiplying pts/g by 10 to get a more significant value than pts/g.  I dunno why I didn&#8217;t think of it before this year.  I used to do my own projections but I&#8217;m unable to find the time anymore.  Thanks for listening to my suggestion.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian</title>
		<link>http://steamerprojections.com/blog/yu-darvish-and-updated-projections/#comment-411</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Mar 2012 04:27:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://steamerprojections.com/blog/?p=310#comment-411</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There will always be injuries, nobody knows exactly who yet other than the usual suspects like Bedard, JJ, etc, who should have injuries built-in to their playing time. We also don&#039;t know who will even make the opening day rotations. Looks like Bard could be going back to the bullpen, though, which should help straighten out the Boston situation.

I think it&#039;s best to get an idea of the most likely projection for each individual player instead of each individual team, or the league as a whole. Let&#039;s say hypothetically one player from each team misses 20 starts from a freak injury. We don&#039;t know who it will be, so we can take off a handful of starts from each pitcher to account for it. Or we can make a prediction for each player assuming they are not the one to suffer the freak injury, which allows us to maximize the amount of pitchers with accurate projections, because the guy who misses 20 games is going to be wrong anyway so being a little bit more wrong is insignificant. 4 good playing time projections and one really bad one v/s 4 mediocre playing time projections and one really bad one. It&#039;s not that black and white in real life but is still the better approach, in my opinion. And that leads to over-estimating the amount of GS, IP, and ABs if you sum up the projections.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There will always be injuries, nobody knows exactly who yet other than the usual suspects like Bedard, JJ, etc, who should have injuries built-in to their playing time. We also don&#8217;t know who will even make the opening day rotations. Looks like Bard could be going back to the bullpen, though, which should help straighten out the Boston situation.</p>
<p>I think it&#8217;s best to get an idea of the most likely projection for each individual player instead of each individual team, or the league as a whole. Let&#8217;s say hypothetically one player from each team misses 20 starts from a freak injury. We don&#8217;t know who it will be, so we can take off a handful of starts from each pitcher to account for it. Or we can make a prediction for each player assuming they are not the one to suffer the freak injury, which allows us to maximize the amount of pitchers with accurate projections, because the guy who misses 20 games is going to be wrong anyway so being a little bit more wrong is insignificant. 4 good playing time projections and one really bad one v/s 4 mediocre playing time projections and one really bad one. It&#8217;s not that black and white in real life but is still the better approach, in my opinion. And that leads to over-estimating the amount of GS, IP, and ABs if you sum up the projections.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: J. Cross</title>
		<link>http://steamerprojections.com/blog/yu-darvish-and-updated-projections/#comment-410</link>
		<dc:creator>J. Cross</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Mar 2012 03:48:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://steamerprojections.com/blog/?p=310#comment-410</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Good catch on this.  A number of teams are well over 162 starts (Cleveland, Philly, Boston, Baltimore and the Yankees are well over).  We&#039;ll have to look over their depth charts at some point -- although I can&#039;t promise I&#039;ll get to this soon.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good catch on this.  A number of teams are well over 162 starts (Cleveland, Philly, Boston, Baltimore and the Yankees are well over).  We&#8217;ll have to look over their depth charts at some point &#8212; although I can&#8217;t promise I&#8217;ll get to this soon.</p>
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