# Updated Steamer Projections

Our updated projections include three important additions:

*Hiroyuki Nakajima, Kyuji Fujikawa and Hyun-Jin Ryu have been added.

*Pitcher ERAs now take into account our team defense projections.  This will help the pitchers on the Angels among others and hurt the pitchers on the Blue Jays and Rockies.  (Note: the team defense projections differ between Razzball and Fangraphs since the projected playing time differs.)  Thanks to the guys behind them, Jered Weaver’s ERA falls from 4.10 to 3.99 while R.A. Dickey’s moves in the opposite direction, from 3.98 to 4.07.

*Thanks to the work of Clint Hulsey who compiled fastball velocities based on scouting reports on his I R Fast blog, Minor League fastball velocities have been added for 489 minor league pitchers.  Bruce Rondon gets a major boost in his strikeout rate and his ERA falls all the way from 5.34 to 4.08.  Gerrit Cole goes from 4.47 to 4.17.

We’ll keep updating playing time bit by bit and should have one last significant update that will come immediately before the season starts (we might even get to see Jered Weaver’s ERA fall once again).  During the season, our projections will be updated on Razzball and Fangraphs.  If you have a draft coming up, you can get discounted Rotochamp software through the ad on our Downloads page and send some money back our way in the process.

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### 28 Responses to Updated Steamer Projections

1. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:

Gentleman!

Back to using your rankings this year after it won me 2 titles last year. Just getting around to updating my draft software for this weekends 12tm AL only auction, Will the 3/17 update be the last update before this weekend? Or are you planning to roll something out later in the week?

• J. Cross says:

Congrats and good luck! I’m pretty sure that it will be the last before this weekend.

2. johntandlich says:

I hope you weren’t asked this before. Why are some players valued lower, compared to other players, in $AL than they are in$5×5? For example Miquel Cabrera is valued at $40 in 5×5 and$36 in AL while Albert Pujols is valued at only $37 in 5×5 but$43 in AL. If I’m in an AL only league should I rank Pujols higher. Conversely, should I rank Cabrera higher in an all MLB league?

• Webs says:

Uh, where do you see dollar values? And AL/NL/MLB ratings for those dollar values.

I downloaded SteamerRazzballPitchers 2013 v5 and SteamerRazzballHitters 2013 v5. Are the dollar values in another file?

• johntandlich says:

on Fangraphs.

• johntandlich says:
• Webs says:

I see what you mean. Michael Young is obviously misranked in $NL. Freddie Freeman, too. • J. Cross says: Yes, as John said, the$ values are on Fangraphs and on Razzball. I have to admit we’re not involved in either one. I trust them but I can’t claim to know what the other hand is doing.

3. oscar says:

which is more up-to-date: this site or fangraphs steamer picks?

• J. Cross says:

They are both up to date… all the way.

4. Nat says:

Is the 3/23 update the final one before the season starts?

• J. Cross says:

There’s one more coming… this Friday, I think.

• Nat says:

Thanks for the reply, Jared! How do you account for players that are currently projected for bullpen duty, but have zeros for their stat line. For example, Casey Fien from Minnesota or Cody Allen for Cleveland…

• J. Cross says:

Fien and Allen are both projected as relievers since they pitched in relief last year. If someone pitched in both the majors and minors (and has no playing time projected) they are defaulted to their MLB role. If they only pitched in the minors we use their minor league role.

5. Mark says:

Does the Steamer algorithm factor in stolen base preventions skills for pitchers when producing projected ERAs?

• J. Cross says:

No, not yet. This could happen for 2014.

6. bill says:

when will you have 2014 projections available?

• J. Cross says:

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer

Clearly, we need to do a better job of communicating this!

• Mike D says:

Hi, I saw the projections on Fangraphs but they exclude a lot of data that you publish on this website. For example, the Games Played projection is quite useful: I like to look a both regular and prorated calculations to get a sense of how much of a player’s value is due to durability. Is there any place I could find this stat?

Thanks

• J. Cross says:

Hi Mike, sorry for the slow response – I just saw this now. I’ll see if there’s an easy way to make the export on Fangraphs send out everything.

• Craig C says:

Also, I don’t see a way to get the mlbID field from Fangraphs. that field is very useful to me.

Thanks for the great projections!

• J. Cross says:

Ok, good call. You can expect to see both MLBAM’s and reliability ratings added to the FG export within the next few days.

• Rocky Colavito says:

Part of the issue is that they are labeled on FanGraphs as “2013 Projections” which leads folks to believe they are last year’s numbers, not this year’s pre-season projections.

• J. Cross says:

Ah! Good catch. I didn’t see that.

Playing time projections look strange in the current version. Some examples:
Manny Machado 423 PA (710 last year)
Yadier Molina 449 PA (hasn’t been that low since 2007)
Ryan Zimmerman 537 PA (averaged 637 last two years)
Justin Upton 531 PA (between 571 and 643 last five years)

If everyone was low, it would be OK. However, it appears to be a subset of players that skews their values significantly.

• J. Cross says:

Thanks. I’ll start to take a closer look at these. They all come from the Fangraphs depth charts right now.

• Nick says:

Alex Wood is currently projected for 50 G and 25 GS. Nobody has ever done that before. In 1979, Bob Shirley went 49 G and 25 GS. In 1987, Dave Dravecky went 48G/28 GS.

In the last 10 years, only six pitchers have ever pitched in 40 games with 20 starts.

• J. Cross says:

So… you’re saying that this is a mistake??

Thanks for the catch, Nick!