Updated Save Projections

We’ve updated our save projections so that now they take advantage of information from the Fangraph Fan Ballots in addition to the Fangraphs Depth Charts.

Before the update, our system was quite simple: all pitchers who were rated as the leading closer candidate for their team were assigned 28 saves, all #2 guys were given 6 saves and all #3 guys were given 3 saves.

Now, Joe Nathan, Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson lead the way with 35 projected saves (our new maximum) and John Axford, despite being the #1 guy on the Indians depth chart falls all the way to 20 saves, with Cody Allen and Vinnie Pestano each taking 8. Danny Farquhar, the #2 guys for the Mariners, goes from only 6 projected saves up to 15, with Fernando Rodney taking 23. Pedro Strop is projected for 9 saves despite ranking 5th in the Cubs pen.

Let me know if anything looks amiss.

Comments (6)

  1. Chris

    Looks good, thanks J.

    Can we expect IP to updated anytime soon? As of now, they’re a little same-y.

    1. J. Cross (Post author)

      Thanks. Hopefully, yes. We’ve got a number of items on our to do list though so I can’t promise it right away.

  2. hankp

    Will these updated save projections be the ones used on both fangraphs and razzball?

    1. J. Cross (Post author)

      Just Fangraphs. Razzball has their own save projections.

  3. Jimmy

    I noticed you came up with 3.7 WAR for Kershaw. Is this a bug? His other seem pretty close to Felix’s and fangraphs is showing 4.7 WAR for Felix. Thanks!

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