Updated Fielding Projections

As of this morning, we’ve updated our fielding projections.  There are two major changes in the way we’re cooking this year’s fielding projections.   First, these are now based on more data: 5 past years and the current season (in-season, that is) of UZR data instead of merely 2 past years of UZR’s and the current season.  Second, they are regressed towards Tom Tango’s Fan Scouting Reports instead of towards zero.  This ends up creating somewhat more aggressive projections.  Andrelton Simmons leads the way and is projected to be 21 runs better than the average shortstop.  The biggest gainer from the old system to the new system is Brett Gardner who goes from a projection of merely +1 all the way up to +14 (the 4th best UZR projection after Simmons, Machado and Arenado).  Check out the table below to see how fielders fared under each system.

UZR Projection Changes

steamerid
name
position
new
old
gain
9927 Brett Gardner LF 14.2 0.9 13.3
10847 Andrelton Simmons SS 21.1 11.5 9.6
9368 Evan Longoria 3B 13.7 6.4 7.3
11493 Manny Machado 3B 16.9 9.9 7.0
639 Adrian Beltre 3B 7.6 1.0 6.6
9777 Nolan Arenado 3B 14.9 8.6 6.3
8370 Dustin Pedroia 2B 9.5 3.6 5.9
9218 Paul Goldschmidt 1B 7.1 1.2 5.9
1281 Mark Teixeira 1B 7.8 2.1 5.7
1908 Adrian Gonzalez 1B 10.3 4.5 5.7
3473 Anthony Rizzo 1B 10.2 4.5 5.6
791 Brandon Phillips 2B 9.2 3.7 5.6
8709 Elvis Andrus SS 8.3 2.8 5.5
10099 Dustin Ackley LF 2.6 -2.7 5.3
5209 Alex Gordon LF 8.4 3.6 4.8
1875 Josh Hamilton LF 0.4 -4.2 4.6
2578 Peter Bourjos CF 9.4 4.9 4.5
3882 Chris Young RF 6.4 2.0 4.4
5222 Justin Upton LF -1.1 -5.2 4.1
5038 Josh Donaldson 3B 9.1 5.1 4.1
4314 Joey Votto 1B 5.6 1.6 4.0
10264 Brandon Belt 1B 5.7 1.7 3.9
4556 James Loney 1B 6.7 2.7 3.9
88 Rafael Furcal 2B 2.4 -1.5 3.8
6195 Ian Kinsler 2B 1.5 -2.3 3.8
4298 Matt Wieters C 8.3 4.5 3.8
7007 Yadier Molina C 9.5 5.9 3.7
1177 Albert Pujols 1B 4.4 0.8 3.6
3361 Gaby Sanchez 1B 3.5 0.0 3.5
8433 Ike Davis 1B 2.7 -0.7 3.4
3174 Shin-Soo Choo LF -5.5 -8.8 3.4
5247 Brett Lawrie 3B 4.7 1.4 3.3
7435 Ben Zobrist 2B 6.7 3.4 3.2
7304 Salvador Perez C 7.3 4.2 3.1
1679 Chase Utley 2B 4.7 1.6 3.1
4903 Matt Dominguez 3B 3.1 0.1 3.1
4220 Ryan Zimmerman 3B -1.2 -4.2 3.1
7476 Alex Avila C 0.6 -2.3 2.9
5933 Jean Segura SS 2.2 -0.7 2.9
971 Jimmy Rollins SS 2.6 -0.4 2.9
6073 Brendan Ryan SS 3.9 1.0 2.9
9166 Buster Posey C 5.9 3.0 2.9
3797 J.J. Hardy SS 5.2 2.4 2.8
2430 Darwin Barney 2B 9.0 6.4 2.6
6310 Alcides Escobar SS 3.3 0.8 2.5
9241 Starling Marte LF 10.3 7.9 2.4
1904 Adam LaRoche 1B 2.6 0.3 2.3
1857 Joe Mauer 1B 2.0 -0.2 2.3
3531 Troy Tulowitzki SS 4.0 1.8 2.2
4747 Curtis Granderson LF 1.3 -0.9 2.2
7870 Jonathan Lucroy C 0.1 -2.0 2.2
1201 Carl Crawford LF 5.0 2.8 2.1
6589 Sean Rodriguez 1B 2.4 0.3 2.1
4892 Mike Moustakas 3B 6.0 3.9 2.1
5760 Avisail Garcia RF -2.8 -4.8 2.0
1930 Casey Kotchman 1B 1.8 -0.1 1.8
5343 Brandon Crawford SS 4.4 2.6 1.8
9848 Austin Jackson CF 1.1 -0.6 1.7
8631 Cord Phelps 1B 1.7 -0.1 1.7
1737 Justin Morneau 1B 0.6 -1.1 1.7
2073 Jeff Baker 1B 1.4 -0.3 1.7
4720 Chase Headley 3B 4.5 2.8 1.6
1433 Wilson Ramos C 1.0 -0.6 1.6
4949 Giancarlo Stanton RF 1.9 0.4 1.5
6012 Didi Gregorius SS 2.0 0.6 1.5
8259 Kurt Suzuki C 0.3 -1.2 1.4
1825 David DeJesus LF 1.7 0.3 1.4
5254 Robbie Grossman LF -1.8 -3.2 1.4
950 Marlon Byrd RF 1.5 0.1 1.4
1698 Gerald Laird C 1.8 0.5 1.4
3692 Jack Hannahan 3B 1.1 -0.3 1.4
9810 Brian Dozier 2B 1.0 -0.3 1.3
3364 Miguel Montero C 4.8 3.5 1.3
3516 Eric Hosmer 1B 0.2 -1.1 1.3
3371 Alejandro De Aza LF -0.6 -1.8 1.3
2579 Carlos Ruiz C 2.8 1.5 1.2
1744 Miguel Cabrera 1B -2.4 -3.6 1.2
9892 Jay Bruce RF 3.8 2.6 1.2
9627 Yan Gomes C 4.8 3.6 1.2
4229 Howie Kendrick 2B 1.7 0.5 1.1
2530 Yonder Alonso 1B 2.2 1.1 1.1
9272 Chris Davis 1B 0.8 -0.3 1.1
1609 Omar Infante 2B 1.2 0.2 1.0
9054 Justin Smoak 1B 0.5 -0.5 1.0
3892 Josh Reddick RF 10.4 9.5 0.9
8722 Jason Castro C -1.8 -2.8 0.9
10306 Oswaldo Arcia RF -4.6 -5.5 0.9
6387 Michael Bourn CF 3.6 2.8 0.9
1677 Shane Victorino RF 8.8 7.9 0.9
1066 Willie Bloomquist 3B 0.4 -0.5 0.9
731 Torii Hunter RF 0.2 -0.6 0.9
2411 Jose Tabata RF -2.0 -2.9 0.9
7620 Justin Ruggiano CF -2.1 -2.9 0.8
14225 Yasiel Puig RF 4.4 3.6 0.8
1327 Jayson Werth RF -4.0 -4.8 0.8
4616 Russell Martin C 5.0 4.2 0.8
1176 Placido Polanco 3B 0.6 -0.2 0.8
5133 Alexei Ramirez SS 1.6 0.9 0.8
2216 Don Kelly LF -0.4 -1.1 0.7
11579 Bryce Harper LF 4.3 3.6 0.7
4952 Ryan Hanigan C 5.8 5.0 0.7
3231 Brayan Pena C -0.2 -0.9 0.7
6677 J.B. Shuck LF -1.6 -2.3 0.7
11038 Kevin Kiermaier CF 0.7 0.0 0.7
9981 Michael Saunders CF -2.0 -2.7 0.7
4719 Brian Bogusevic LF 1.1 0.5 0.7
3256 Welington Castillo C 0.2 -0.5 0.6
5409 Pablo Sandoval 3B -1.0 -1.7 0.6
9015 Gordon Beckham 2B -0.4 -1.0 0.6
6656 L.J. Hoes RF -2.5 -3.1 0.6
9571 Craig Gentry CF 6.7 6.1 0.6
5384 Juan Lagares CF 9.1 8.5 0.6
8267 Chris Iannetta C -0.6 -1.2 0.6
5677 A.J. Ellis C 5.7 5.2 0.6
6184 J.D. Martinez LF -0.6 -1.2 0.6
5497 Marwin Gonzalez SS 0.3 -0.3 0.5
7739 Travis d’Arnaud C -0.2 -0.7 0.5
4106 Michael Brantley LF -0.6 -1.1 0.5
13075 Norichika Aoki RF 0.6 0.1 0.5
3269 Robinson Cano 2B 2.7 2.2 0.5
4599 Nick Swisher 1B 1.1 0.6 0.5
9874 DJ LeMahieu 2B 2.1 1.6 0.5
10299 Eury Perez LF 0.5 0.0 0.5
4672 Junior Lake LF 3.1 2.6 0.5
656 Cesar Izturis SS 0.6 0.1 0.5
9187 Jordan Danks RF 0.5 0.1 0.5
1873 Matt Holliday LF -4.3 -4.8 0.5
49 Kyle Blanks DH 0.1 -0.3 0.5
3057 Mike Napoli 1B 2.9 2.5 0.5
6777 Tyler Pastornicky DH -0.5 -0.9 0.4
11368 Yasmani Grandal C -1.8 -2.2 0.4
5930 Nick Markakis RF -5.0 -5.4 0.4
81 Henry Blanco C 0.2 -0.2 0.4
6887 Martin Maldonado C 0.9 0.5 0.4
3086 Mitch Moreland DH 0.9 0.4 0.4
5000 Stephen Vogt C 0.4 0.0 0.4
4082 Erick Aybar SS -2.2 -2.6 0.4
7244 Tyler Moore 1B -0.4 -0.8 0.4
25 Jose Molina C 1.1 0.7 0.4
9312 Ryan Wheeler 1B 0.3 -0.1 0.4
6201 Nate Schierholtz RF -1.0 -1.4 0.4
3878 Chris Stewart C 0.2 -0.1 0.4
10459 Adeiny Hechavarria SS -3.9 -4.2 0.4
9219 Danny Espinosa 2B 1.6 1.3 0.4
5361 Freddie Freeman 1B 1.1 0.8 0.4
9423 Chris McGuiness 1B 0.4 0.0 0.3
6827 Justin Maxwell CF 0.0 -0.3 0.3
589 Carlos Beltran RF -3.1 -3.4 0.3
4866 Jarrod Dyson CF 2.4 2.1 0.3
8027 Adam Lind 1B -0.1 -0.4 0.3
5450 Daniel Nava LF -4.7 -5.0 0.3
7250 Collin Cowgill RF 0.7 0.4 0.3
5098 Jordany Valdespin 2B -0.2 -0.4 0.3
11167 Josh Rutledge 2B -0.9 -1.2 0.3
1443 Mark Ellis 2B 1.3 1.1 0.3
4034 Mat Gamel 1B 0.3 0.0 0.3
3735 Zach Lutz DH 0.3 0.0 0.3
6104 Aaron Hill 2B -1.3 -1.6 0.2
5928 Daric Barton 1B 1.2 1.0 0.2
6262 Tommy Field SS -0.4 -0.6 0.2
9929 Darin Ruf DH -1.6 -1.8 0.2
5297 Aaron Hicks CF -0.9 -1.1 0.2
10166 Nick Franklin DH -0.1 -0.3 0.2
1101 Ichiro Suzuki RF 3.0 2.8 0.2
5422 Steve Lombardozzi 3B -0.1 -0.3 0.2
8254 Sam Fuld LF 0.2 0.0 0.2
2437 Maicer Izturis 2B -4.1 -4.3 0.2
13265 Mike Zunino C -0.7 -0.8 0.2
11477 Christian Yelich LF -1.1 -1.3 0.2
1551 David Ross C 1.9 1.7 0.2
9853 Sean Halton 1B 0.1 0.0 0.2
2434 Nelson Cruz DH -0.2 -0.4 0.2
6848 Eduardo Nunez 3B -1.9 -2.0 0.2
10199 Billy Hamilton CF 0.9 0.7 0.2
2502 Lucas Duda DH -0.9 -1.0 0.2
4403 Erik Kratz C 1.3 1.1 0.1
3411 Drew Butera C 0.1 0.0 0.1
7436 Brandon Allen DH 0.1 0.0 0.1
193 Carlos Triunfel 3B 0.1 0.0 0.1
2830 Travis Snider DH -0.2 -0.3 0.1
6962 Ryan Kalish RF 0.1 -0.1 0.1
9854 Efren Navarro 1B 0.1 0.0 0.1
7752 David Cooper 1B 0.1 0.0 0.1
906 Eric Chavez DH 0.0 -0.1 0.1
7287 Carlos Gonzalez LF 0.9 0.8 0.1
7937 Logan Schafer LF 1.4 1.3 0.1
5223 Cameron Maybin CF -0.2 -0.3 0.1
10815 Jurickson Profar 2B 0.8 0.7 0.1
2225 Jason Bourgeois RF 0.1 0.0 0.1
8879 Ryan Lavarnway C -0.2 -0.3 0.1
6178 Tony Sanchez C 0.0 -0.1 0.1
1926 Scott Hairston DH -0.7 -0.8 0.1
4293 Brett Hayes C 0.0 -0.1 0.1
4984 Brock Peterson 1B 0.1 0.0 0.1
11200 Kole Calhoun RF -0.7 -0.8 0.1
7577 Marc Krauss RF -1.3 -1.4 0.1
13051 Chris Colabello 1B 0.1 0.0 0.1
5386 Andrew Lambo DH -0.2 -0.3 0.1
11287 Bryan Holaday C -0.6 -0.6 0.1
5887 John Jaso DH -0.2 -0.3 0.1
6582 Nate Freiman 1B 0.3 0.2 0.1
2554 Chris Parmelee 1B 0.0 0.0 0.1
7423 Shane Peterson 1B 0.0 0.0 0.1
2802 Tony Cruz C 0.4 0.4 0.1
10289 Hector Sanchez C -0.5 -0.6 0.1
2677 Jordan Pacheco DH -0.3 -0.3 0.1
5273 Sandy Leon DH -0.1 -0.1 0.0
8434 Brett Wallace 1B -0.1 -0.1 0.0
4918 Engel Beltre CF 0.6 0.5 0.0
9628 Michael McKenry C -0.3 -0.4 0.0
6788 Josh Satin DH 0.1 0.1 0.0
342 Corky Miller C 0.0 0.0 0.0
4792 Jeff Francoeur RF -0.7 -0.7 0.0
11147 Tommy Medica DH 0.0 0.0 0.0
9542 Steve Clevenger C -0.2 -0.2 0.0
5212 Alfredo Marte RF -0.1 -0.1 0.0
3867 Kelly Shoppach C 0.2 0.1 0.0
6050 Moises Sierra 1B -0.3 -0.4 0.0
7515 Jhonatan Solano C 0.0 -0.1 0.0
5199 Taylor Teagarden C 0.0 0.0 0.0
5491 Austin Romine C -0.1 -0.1 0.0
11265 Jonathan Schoop 2B -0.4 -0.4 0.0
9689 Josh Thole C -0.3 -0.3 0.0
10593 Joey Terdoslavich RF 0.0 0.0 0.0
629 Brandon Barnes CF 1.1 1.1 0.0
10556 Cesar Hernandez CF -0.3 -0.3 0.0
6402 Brent Morel 3B 0.0 0.0 0.0
13047 Munenori Kawasaki 2B 0.2 0.2 0.0
9911 Chris Carter DH -0.2 -0.2 0.0
7324 Chris Gimenez C 0.0 0.0 0.0
7002 Will Middlebrooks 3B -1.0 -1.0 0.0
3298 Charlie Culberson 2B -0.1 -0.1 0.0
10059 Max Stassi C 0.0 0.0 0.0
7168 Juan Centeno C 0.0 0.0 0.0
113 Steven Lerud C 0.0 0.0 0.0
11146 Cameron Rupp C 0.0 0.0 0.0
9632 Brett Jackson CF 0.0 0.0 0.0
4365 Scott Van Slyke DH 0.1 0.1 0.0
2783 Johnny Monell C 0.0 0.0 0.0
3376 Nick Hundley C 0.2 0.2 0.0
9176 Audry Perez C 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa454748 Charlie Cutler C 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa548088 Miguel Sano 3B 0.0 0.0 0.0
745 David Ortiz DH 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa503033 Ramon Cabrera C 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa657862 Addison Russell SS 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa501596 Jon Singleton 1B 0.0 0.0 0.0
1573 Travis Hafner DH 0.0 0.0 0.0
7765 Jermaine Curtis 3B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa501667 Kyle Jensen LF 0.0 0.0 0.0
8610 Kendrys Morales DH 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa510223 Daniel Butler C 0.0 0.0 0.0
15676 Jose Abreu 1B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa454887 A.J. Jimenez C 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa507194 Gregory Polanco RF 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa455288 Dean Anna 2B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa549634 Cheslor Cuthbert 3B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa549555 Gary Sanchez C 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa392355 Alfredo Silverio CF 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa549529 Maikel Franco 3B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa503297 Francisco Martinez SS 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa503874 Danny Santana 2B 0.0 0.0 0.0
5306 Kristopher Negron SS 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa501959 Brent Keys CF 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa327116 Jared Mitchell CF 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa506574 Oscar Taveras CF 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa455610 Jordan Lennerton 1B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa526553 Hunter Morris 1B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa500820 Trayce Thompson RF 0.0 0.0 0.0
9591 Jeff Kobernus 3B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa454552 Greg Miclat SS 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa549081 Joc Pederson CF 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa502010 Dustin Garneau C 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa597754 Francisco Lindor SS 0.0 0.0 0.0
1861 Wilson Betemit DH 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa501717 Lane Adams RF 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa503875 Kennys Vargas 1B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa502052 Brady Shoemaker RF 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa392232 Bryce Brentz RF 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa508601 Japhet Amador 1B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa390641 Christian Colon SS 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa526397 Ryan Lamarre CF 0.0 0.0 0.0
15670 Alexander Guerrero 2B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa455627 Miguel Rojas 2B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa547735 Alen Hanson SS 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa502062 Alex Hassan RF 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa598119 Thomas La Stella 2B 0.0 0.0 0.0
945 Bobby Abreu DH 0.0 0.0 0.0
11737 Nick Castellanos 3B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa502536 Hak-Ju Lee SS 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa501940 Andrew Susac C 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa502196 Justin Bour 1B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa455056 Christian Vazquez C 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa526414 George Springer CF 0.0 0.0 0.0
10028 Christian Bethancourt DH 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa455994 Michael Almanzar 3B 0.0 0.0 0.0
sa548308 Garin Cecchini 3B 0.0 0.0 0.0
9328 Drew Stubbs CF 0.1 0.1 0.0
3353 Matt Joyce DH -0.2 -0.2 0.0
8385 Pedro Florimon SS 0.8 0.8 0.0
10953 Phil Gosselin 2B 0.0 0.0 0.0
8418 Ehire Adrianza SS 0.0 0.0 0.0
7945 Jaff Decker LF 0.0 0.0 0.0
10154 Donald Lutz LF 0.0 0.0 0.0
10655 Rob Brantly C -0.2 -0.2 0.0
5751 Hernan Perez 2B 0.0 0.0 0.0
3648 Rene Rivera C 0.2 0.2 0.0
454 Juan Uribe 3B 10.4 10.5 0.0
5942 Jesus Sucre C 0.0 0.0 0.0
4606 Chris Snyder C 0.0 0.0 0.0
4875 Logan Watkins 2B 0.1 0.1 0.0
10339 Scooter Gennett 2B 0.5 0.5 0.0
4623 Josh Vitters 3B -0.1 0.0 0.0
4464 Mike Baxter DH 0.0 0.0 0.0
8145 Eric Fryer C 0.0 0.1 0.0
1617 Lyle Overbay 1B 0.0 0.0 0.0
10346 J.R. Murphy C 0.0 0.1 0.0
9461 Thomas Neal LF -0.1 0.0 0.0
6019 Cody Clark C 0.1 0.1 0.0
10416 Wilfredo Tovar SS 0.1 0.1 0.0
7226 Matt Davidson 3B -0.2 -0.2 0.0
2616 Zack Cozart SS 4.2 4.2 0.0
1824 Humberto Quintero C 0.1 0.1 0.0
9957 Steve Pearce LF -0.1 -0.1 0.0
9871 Bryan Anderson C -0.1 -0.1 0.0
6880 Nick Noonan DH 0.0 0.0 0.0
10542 Derek Dietrich 2B -0.2 -0.1 0.0
8029 Rob Johnson C -0.1 -0.1 0.0
877 John Hester C -0.1 -0.1 0.0
3142 Robinson Chirinos C 0.0 0.0 0.0
11385 Matt den Dekker CF 0.0 0.0 0.0
6732 Zoilo Almonte LF 0.2 0.2 0.0
9063 Alexi Amarista DH -0.8 -0.7 0.0
10329 Reymond Fuentes CF 0.0 0.0 0.0
5277 Tuffy Gosewisch C 0.0 0.1 0.0
3118 Jesus Guzman 1B -0.1 0.0 0.0
4756 John Baker C -0.1 0.0 0.0
7619 Mark Reynolds 1B -0.2 -0.1 0.0
4940 Jason Heyward RF 10.8 10.9 0.0
6448 Jim Adduci LF 0.0 0.0 -0.1
6746 Josh Prince LF -0.1 0.0 -0.1
6635 Kevin Mattison LF -0.1 0.0 -0.1
6165 Irving Falu 2B -0.1 0.0 -0.1
10622 Zach Walters SS -0.1 0.0 -0.1
7480 Mike Carp 1B -0.9 -0.8 -0.1
4900 Robert Andino 2B -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
14441 Henry Urrutia DH -0.1 0.0 -0.1
8609 Tim Federowicz C 0.0 0.1 -0.1
4063 Anthony Recker C -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
1830 Clint Barmes SS 0.5 0.6 -0.1
3390 John Mayberry DH -2.0 -1.9 -0.1
5225 Roger Kieschnick LF 0.0 0.0 -0.1
8587 Steve Susdorf LF -0.1 0.0 -0.1
6341 Luis Jimenez 3B 0.1 0.2 -0.1
4191 Yunel Escobar SS 3.1 3.2 -0.1
12532 Kolten Wong 2B 0.5 0.6 -0.1
6596 Ryan Jackson 3B -0.1 0.0 -0.1
7412 Paul Janish SS 0.0 0.1 -0.1
6609 Freddy Galvis DH 0.2 0.3 -0.1
4964 Tony Campana CF -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
11205 Adam Eaton CF -7.1 -7.0 -0.1
2158 Greg Dobbs 1B -0.1 0.0 -0.1
319 Adam Dunn DH -0.1 0.0 -0.1
11997 Cody Asche 3B -1.4 -1.3 -0.1
6835 Nick Buss CF -0.1 0.0 -0.1
3388 Chris Getz 2B -0.1 0.0 -0.1
9060 James Darnell LF -0.2 0.0 -0.1
8380 Reid Brignac SS -0.1 0.0 -0.1
9284 Chris Herrmann C -0.1 0.0 -0.1
4243 Jose Lobaton C -1.3 -1.2 -0.1
2539 Pete Kozma SS 0.0 0.2 -0.2
847 Alfonso Soriano RF 0.1 0.3 -0.2
7358 Michael Martinez 2B -0.2 0.0 -0.2
10030 Chris Owings SS -0.1 0.1 -0.2
5653 Ryan Roberts 2B -0.3 -0.1 -0.2
393 Victor Martinez DH -0.1 0.0 -0.2
2178 Brendan Harris 2B -0.2 -0.1 -0.2
8392 Daniel Descalso 3B -1.9 -1.8 -0.2
7290 Jake Elmore SS -0.3 -0.1 -0.2
6867 Derek Norris C -0.4 -0.2 -0.2
12434 Kevin Pillar LF 1.0 1.1 -0.2
5486 Abraham Almonte CF -2.2 -2.0 -0.2
3179 Dioner Navarro C -1.0 -0.8 -0.2
6978 Juan Francisco 1B -2.8 -2.6 -0.2
5053 Tony Abreu DH -0.5 -0.3 -0.2
5587 Carlos Corporan C -0.3 -0.1 -0.2
2161 Jason Kubel DH -0.8 -0.6 -0.2
8272 Matt Tuiasosopo 3B -0.2 0.0 -0.2
818 Jason Giambi 1B -0.2 0.0 -0.2
607 Raul Ibanez DH -0.7 -0.5 -0.2
1556 Wil Nieves C -0.2 0.0 -0.2
9393 Matt Adams 1B -0.5 -0.2 -0.2
10053 Grant Green 2B -0.5 -0.3 -0.2
9147 Taylor Green 3B -0.2 0.0 -0.2
6400 Kirk Nieuwenhuis CF -0.2 0.1 -0.2
12533 Marcus Semien 3B -0.2 0.1 -0.2
8002 Wilin Rosario C -2.5 -2.2 -0.2
10071 Jonathan Villar SS -4.4 -4.1 -0.3
3395 Cliff Pennington DH 0.1 0.4 -0.3
7389 David Adams 3B -0.2 0.1 -0.3
11339 Jake Marisnick CF 0.5 0.8 -0.3
5002 Caleb Gindl RF -0.6 -0.3 -0.3
3433 Allen Craig RF -2.9 -2.6 -0.3
1572 Coco Crisp CF -2.8 -2.6 -0.3
4704 Donnie Murphy 3B -3.1 -2.8 -0.3
13510 Jose Ramirez SS -0.3 0.0 -0.3
8090 Matt Carpenter 3B -1.8 -1.5 -0.3
7215 David Lough LF 5.0 5.3 -0.3
7927 Eric Sogard 2B 0.4 0.7 -0.3
6740 Johnny Giavotella 2B -0.5 -0.2 -0.3
5913 Leury Garcia 2B -0.5 -0.2 -0.3
2636 Brandon Guyer LF -0.3 0.0 -0.3
3123 Gregor Blanco LF 2.9 3.2 -0.3
3373 Clete Thomas CF -0.3 0.0 -0.3
7399 Billy Butler DH -0.3 0.0 -0.3
1502 Nick Green 2B -0.4 0.0 -0.3
4249 Shane Robinson CF 0.6 0.9 -0.3
9785 Kyle Seager 3B -0.9 -0.6 -0.3
7571 Lonnie Chisenhall 3B -2.4 -2.0 -0.3
9856 Brandon Snyder 3B -0.4 0.0 -0.3
6806 Josmil Pinto C 0.4 0.7 -0.3
5666 Devin Mesoraco C 0.1 0.5 -0.4
13110 Yoenis Cespedes LF 1.2 1.5 -0.4
4450 Steve Tolleson 2B -0.4 0.0 -0.4
11376 Michael Choice CF -0.3 0.0 -0.4
9134 Tyler Flowers C -0.5 -0.1 -0.4
4885 Nyjer Morgan CF -0.3 0.1 -0.4
10822 Todd Cunningham RF -0.4 0.0 -0.4
1849 Rickie Weeks 2B -3.4 -3.0 -0.4
8252 Hunter Pence RF -1.0 -0.6 -0.4
1165 Chris Valaika 2B -0.7 -0.3 -0.4
4390 Scott Moore 3B -0.5 -0.1 -0.4
3707 Geovany Soto C 0.1 0.6 -0.4
9807 Ryan Goins 2B 1.1 1.5 -0.4
242 Paul Konerko 1B -0.9 -0.4 -0.5
5503 Corban Joseph 2B -0.5 0.0 -0.5
3448 Jeff Mathis C 0.6 1.1 -0.5
12861 Anthony Rendon 2B -1.1 -0.6 -0.5
1580 Chone Figgins 3B -0.4 0.1 -0.5
9700 Casper Wells CF -0.3 0.2 -0.5
4400 Chris Denorfia RF 1.5 2.0 -0.5
5278 Pedro Ciriaco 2B -2.3 -1.8 -0.5
2113 Ryan Doumit DH -1.6 -1.1 -0.5
3817 Joaquin Arias DH -0.5 0.0 -0.5
2218 Ryan Raburn LF 0.0 0.5 -0.5
8203 Dee Gordon 2B -1.6 -1.1 -0.5
2041 John Buck C -0.2 0.3 -0.5
6153 Eduardo Escobar SS -1.3 -0.7 -0.5
7331 Seth Smith DH -0.7 -0.2 -0.5
211 Will Venable RF -3.6 -3.0 -0.5
8841 Ramiro Pena 3B -0.5 0.1 -0.5
9308 Josh Phegley C -1.3 -0.8 -0.5
1260 Ryan Ludwick LF -5.0 -4.5 -0.5
2090 Alex Rios RF -0.7 -0.1 -0.6
10047 Wil Myers RF 0.0 0.6 -0.6
8219 Jason Bartlett SS -0.6 -0.1 -0.6
4881 Carlos Gomez CF 11.3 11.9 -0.6
7185 Logan Forsythe LF -1.2 -0.5 -0.6
4969 Luis Valbuena DH 0.1 0.8 -0.6
5371 Juan Perez CF 0.8 1.4 -0.6
9205 Logan Morrison DH -1.4 -0.7 -0.6
11003 Evan Gattis C 0.1 0.8 -0.6
1736 Jose Reyes SS -4.3 -3.6 -0.6
9112 Khris Davis LF -3.1 -2.4 -0.6
1429 Nick Punto 2B -0.1 0.6 -0.7
4182 Jonathan Herrera 2B -0.6 0.1 -0.7
1766 Laynce Nix LF -0.3 0.3 -0.7
6035 David Murphy RF 1.8 2.5 -0.7
5275 Francisco Cervelli C -0.6 0.1 -0.7
3708 Rajai Davis LF -2.8 -2.1 -0.7
2591 Michael Taylor LF -0.8 -0.1 -0.7
10231 Jose Iglesias SS 1.8 2.5 -0.7
2650 Corey Brown CF -0.8 0.0 -0.7
3917 Dayan Viciedo LF -2.9 -2.2 -0.7
5506 George Kottaras C -1.8 -1.1 -0.8
1159 Andrew Romine 3B -0.7 0.1 -0.8
4251 Stephen Drew SS -1.4 -0.6 -0.8
3441 Nolan Reimold LF -1.2 -0.4 -0.8
7859 Charlie Blackmon DH -1.2 -0.4 -0.8
1555 Marco Scutaro 2B -2.4 -1.6 -0.8
5097 Anthony Gose CF -1.4 -0.6 -0.8
5496 Francisco Peguero RF -0.6 0.2 -0.8
3190 Nate McLouth DH -1.8 -0.9 -0.8
3035 Michael Morse LF -9.5 -8.6 -0.8
7316 Darin Mastroianni RF -0.1 0.8 -0.8
3837 Andrew Brown RF -1.0 -0.1 -0.8
9256 A.J. Pollock CF 6.9 7.8 -0.9
443 Juan Pierre LF -2.2 -1.4 -0.9
9883 Jordan Schafer CF -1.3 -0.4 -0.9
8623 Donovan Solano 2B -1.1 -0.2 -0.9
2151 Edwin Encarnacion 1B -2.3 -1.3 -0.9
9958 Jeff Bianchi DH 0.6 1.6 -0.9
2881 Scott Sizemore 3B -1.1 -0.2 -1.0
5557 Jarrod Saltalamacchia C -3.7 -2.7 -1.0
10155 Mike Trout CF 4.0 5.0 -1.0
6876 Mark Trumbo LF -3.0 -2.0 -1.0
3410 Ryan Braun RF -3.2 -2.2 -1.0
9414 Quintin Berry CF -1.3 -0.2 -1.0
9345 Brock Holt SS -1.6 -0.5 -1.1
1534 Michael Cuddyer RF -7.6 -6.5 -1.1
5519 Ruben Tejada SS 0.1 1.2 -1.1
4810 Brian McCann C -0.5 0.6 -1.1
332 Austin Kearns RF -0.7 0.5 -1.1
9009 Conor Gillaspie 3B -1.6 -0.5 -1.2
6453 Andy Dirks LF 0.5 1.7 -1.2
8760 Carlos Peguero CF -1.2 0.0 -1.2
4712 Ben Revere CF -0.8 0.4 -1.2
10816 Jedd Gyorko 2B -0.6 0.7 -1.2
5227 Jon Jay CF -1.8 -0.5 -1.2
5663 Neftali Soto 3B -1.3 0.0 -1.3
3978 Chris Heisey DH -0.4 0.9 -1.3
5015 B.J. Upton CF -1.5 -0.1 -1.3
9682 Adam Rosales 3B -1.6 -0.3 -1.4
166 Brian Roberts 2B -1.9 -0.5 -1.4
6364 Danny Valencia 3B -1.9 -0.5 -1.4
8347 Denard Span CF 1.5 2.9 -1.4
6352 Ryan Sweeney LF -0.3 1.1 -1.4
9776 Jason Kipnis 2B -2.7 -1.2 -1.5
7158 Eric Young DH -2.2 -0.7 -1.5
746 A.J. Pierzynski C 0.0 1.6 -1.6
11846 Leonys Martin CF 1.8 3.5 -1.6
4022 Melky Cabrera LF -4.8 -3.1 -1.7
3856 Jeff Keppinger 2B -2.1 -0.4 -1.7
3704 Skip Schumaker DH -4.3 -2.6 -1.7
4727 Jacoby Ellsbury CF 2.8 4.5 -1.7
6547 Jordy Mercer SS -2.6 -0.9 -1.7
2498 Jemile Weeks 2B -2.7 -1.0 -1.7
5235 Justin Turner 2B -2.2 -0.5 -1.7
2197 Grady Sizemore CF -1.7 0.0 -1.7
5986 Mike Aviles SS -2.4 -0.7 -1.7
10698 Mike Olt 3B -1.7 0.0 -1.7
4467 Brandon Moss 1B -3.4 -1.7 -1.7
3154 Domonic Brown LF -7.7 -6.0 -1.7
1867 Darnell McDonald DH -1.5 0.3 -1.7
7888 Ryan Flaherty 2B -0.7 1.1 -1.8
5827 Wilmer Flores 2B -1.9 0.0 -1.9
12775 Brad Miller SS -1.5 0.4 -1.9
2505 Hank Conger C -2.4 -0.5 -1.9
2714 Garrett Jones 1B -3.3 -1.4 -1.9
7532 Ed Lucas SS -2.2 -0.3 -1.9
12984 Jackie Bradley CF -3.2 -1.2 -2.1
1771 Matt Diaz LF -2.9 -0.8 -2.1
1845 Jonny Gomes LF -3.8 -1.7 -2.1
7528 Kevin Frandsen 3B -2.2 -0.1 -2.1
3312 Martin Prado 3B -0.2 1.9 -2.1
697 J.P. Arencibia C -3.0 -0.9 -2.1
2918 Angel Pagan CF -5.9 -3.8 -2.1
8553 Gerardo Parra CF 6.3 8.4 -2.1
5631 Matt Kemp CF -10.6 -8.5 -2.1
9549 David Freese 3B -7.7 -5.5 -2.2
10762 Corey Dickerson CF -2.4 -0.1 -2.3
785 Todd Frazier 3B 2.3 4.6 -2.3
5417 Jose Altuve 2B -4.5 -2.1 -2.4
2103 Josh Willingham LF -7.9 -5.5 -2.4
3336 Alberto Callaspo 2B -4.5 -1.8 -2.6
2495 Pedro Alvarez 3B -4.0 -1.2 -2.8
6265 Andre Ethier CF -5.6 -2.8 -2.9
2234 Kelly Johnson 3B -3.2 -0.3 -2.9
9847 Andrew McCutchen CF -1.7 1.3 -3.0
9077 Lorenzo Cain CF 5.6 8.7 -3.1
8202 Josh Harrison SS -3.2 0.0 -3.1
1887 Jose Bautista RF -1.7 1.4 -3.1
2154 Ryan Howard 1B -4.0 -0.9 -3.1
6885 Ian Desmond SS -1.8 1.5 -3.2
1965 Desmond Jennings CF -4.5 -1.3 -3.2
1760 Cody Ross RF 1.0 4.2 -3.2
2396 Carlos Santana C -4.1 -0.8 -3.3
7539 Neil Walker 2B -3.0 0.4 -3.4
6368 Adam Jones CF -7.5 -4.0 -3.4
4613 Prince Fielder 1B -4.6 -1.1 -3.5
10324 Marcell Ozuna CF 0.0 3.7 -3.7
3787 David Wright 3B 0.2 4.0 -3.9
8155 Everth Cabrera SS -5.1 -1.0 -4.1
1491 Ty Wigginton 3B -4.8 -0.6 -4.1
4062 Dexter Fowler CF -8.0 -3.9 -4.1
1002 Aramis Ramirez 3B -5.4 -1.1 -4.3
826 Derek Jeter SS -8.2 -3.9 -4.3
12161 Xander Bogaerts SS -3.9 0.7 -4.6
1945 Corey Hart RF -5.2 -0.5 -4.8
6274 Carlos Quentin LF -9.0 -4.2 -4.8
9893 Colby Rasmus CF -1.0 4.1 -5.1
4418 Jed Lowrie SS -7.2 -2.1 -5.1
7462 Trevor Plouffe 3B -9.2 -4.1 -5.1
1738 Jhonny Peralta SS -2.9 2.4 -5.3
4962 Asdrubal Cabrera SS -10.5 -5.1 -5.4
5305 Alex Presley CF -7.5 -1.9 -5.6
4579 Starlin Castro SS -4.3 1.4 -5.7
4316 Daniel Murphy 2B -9.0 -3.1 -5.9
6086 Casey McGehee 3B -5.5 0.5 -6.0
8001 Hanley Ramirez SS -8.7 -2.5 -6.2
3442 Dan Uggla 2B -9.7 -2.5 -7.2
1191 Chris Johnson 3B -10.8 -3.3 -7.5
5310 Tyler Colvin CF -11.9 -4.3 -7.6

 

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11 Responses to Updated Fielding Projections

  1. MP says:

    Does Steamer either explicitly or implicitly use strength of schedule as a factor in its projections? The question occurred to me after reading this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-strengths-of-schedule-projected/. I suppose things would get recursive in a hurry since the SOS calcs. were done using Steamer as an input, but wondering if your team adjustments already include some adjustments for historical schedule disparities?

    • J. Cross says:

      We don’t. It’s definitely a good idea for the future and I think we could probably get away with one recursion since the adjustment is unlikely to be that dramatic, I’d think.

      In Sullivan’s analysis, I’m wondering if AL teams are getting a bump simply b/c of the DH spot is one more place to get WAR and if you removed the DH WAR the leagues would look more similar.

      • MP says:

        Thinking a little more about it, I suppose by definition you are already including some weighted average of past schedule difficulty when you make your projections. That is, a pitcher in the AL East will usually have worse peripherals than his “true skill” — even in a hypothetically neutral park — simply because the AL East plays so tough on average. So, in theory, any projection system ignoring SOS will tend to under-rate players moving from a reliably tough division (over past 3 years) to an easier division, and vice versa. For players remaining in the same division (i.e., most players), the current system of not adjusting for schedule effects is probably fine.

        • MP says:

          The ideal methodology would probably be to calc. a player’s weighted avg. past schedule difficulty (across multiple teams, if necessary), compare to his projected current season SOS, and adjust his projection accordingly.

          What would *really* be interesting (and challenging) would be to calc. a player’s past SOS by looking at the actual batters or pitchers he faced (weighted by PA of course), to come up with schedule-neutral stats, which would be used to arrive at a schedule-neutral stat projection. Then apply current-season projected SOS to get the actual projection. I honestly feel like that might be the next big step for projection systems.

          • J. Cross says:

            That would be cool. Definitely something to work towards in future years. The first thing we want to neutralize for, I think, is catcher framer skill, but we have some work to do in order to get there.

  2. Ben says:

    In terms of placing proper value on pitching rate stats in my league (K/9, K/BB, ERA, WHIP, BAA), I’m trying to weight my Z-values for those by innings pitched, so that somebody with more IP gets more credit, since he affects more games. My formula for this has been to multiply the initial Z-value by (Individual IP/201), since 201 was the maximum IP in the Steamer projections (Wainwright). For example,

    However, when I do this, top relievers like Kimbrel/Chapman/Jansen take massive hits in value; Kimbrel goes from being valued just outside the top 10 overall to being behind the likes of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Ian Kennedy and Matt Garza, while Jansen slips behind Scott Kazmir. I feel like this is too big a drop, but I’m not sure how to mitigate this without overbalancing. Thoughts?

    • Adam says:

      What sample are you getting the mean and standard deviation from for your z-scores?

      If you’re only using the top 100-150 pitchers or so to calculate z-scores, then elite relievers like Kimbrel should have astronomical z-scores on ERA* (z = 3.55 in my data; 1.86 projected ERA). Elite starters like Strasburg are much lower (z = 1.03; 2.94 projected ERA). So, even when you weight the standardized score by IP (and I just multiply directly), Kimbrel with his 70 or so IP (70 x 3.55 = 248.5) still comes out ahead of Strasburg and his 180 IP (180 x 1.03 = 185.4). I then recalculate z-scores for the weighted ratios so they can be aggregated with other categories.

      *This assumes that you’ve reverse scored raw ERA.

      • Ben says:

        Adam:

        The problem isn’t that Kimbrel’s ERA value isn’t still high; it’s that his OVERALL value (sum of all categories) dips dramatically. My league has these pitching categories:

        IP, W, ERA, SO, SV, HD, QS, BAA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB.

        As you can see, with five rate stats, the impact over more IP is huge. Am I twisting data to fit conclusions, or am I right to think Kimbrel is significantly more valuable in my league than Ryu/Kennedy/Garza?

        • DLS says:

          So the way I see it:

          Neutral Categories: ERA, BAA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB
          Starter Categories: IP,W,QS,SO
          Reliever Categories: SV,HD

          The reason SO is a starter category is simply due to having more opportunities to striking people out, so top flight starters have necessarily better SO numbers than top flight closers.

          The thing about Kimbrel (and other top flight closers) though is that their SO numbers are actually competitive with mid tier and even 2nd tier pitching, logging 100+Ks over the season. Kimbrel is also dominant in the neutral categories, performing better than most starters, even when accounting for lower IP contribution. This is why it feels like Kimbrel should at least be valued within the top pitching tiers, because his contribution feels strong.

          Using the maximum IP to modify rate stats will effectively give starters an extra category worth of weight, since closers will likely fall below the mean. What I’d suggest is limiting your population of available players for scoring and then creating a mean of IP, and use that to normalize your rate stats. The reason you have to limit the population is that there is a large number of tracked pitchers with very low IP, so it ends up skewing the mean. A good way to limit the population is to use the population provided by your fantasy league provider. This type of normalization will tend to exaggerate extreme outliers a bit, but you can probably make a case that the best of the best should be exaggerated.

          It’s also worth noting that if you’re using your Z-Scores to effectively measure pitchers against batters, you should apply the same methodology to batting rate scores (AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS), else batters will be flatter with respect to the pitchers.

  3. Adam says:

    Gosh, I play in a league with some niche stats (Fielding Percentage, Quality Starts, Holds). It would be awesome to get your projections for FPCT. Do you calculate and share those?

    Great, great work, by the way.

    • J. Cross says:

      Thanks. We don’t do any of those 3 right now, I’m afraid. We were thinking about adding QS and holds in the future. I’d never even considered FPCT though — I’m actually hoping that disappears from the stat landscape.

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