Steamer Projections

Steamer Update 2/12/14

The first thing that you should know (and hopefully already do know) is that we’re up on Fangraphs. You can download the hitter and pitcher sheets from there by clicking “Export Data.”

The playing time for these projections is based on the Fangraphs Depth Charts which are updated daily by a team of experts and should get more and more accurate as the season approaches.

Yesterday, we updated our projected lineups. During the season this year, our projected lineups will update based on teams’ actual lineups with recent games weighed most heavily and our “rest-of-season” R, RBI and playing time projections will reflect these updates.

We’re hard at work on our code (some genuine improvements along with some spring cleaning) so you can expect a couple of additional updates within the week.

Comments (17)

  1. Ryan B

    Is a Jose Abreu projection something you’re still working on?

    Reply
    1. J. Cross (Post author)

      Yes, that should be one of the next two or three updates.

      Reply
  2. MP

    Awesome work. Wondering if you (and FG) could add separate lineup projections for vs. LHP and vs. RHP?

    Reply
    1. J. Cross (Post author)

      Thanks. It’s doable (the table I’m grabbing the data from doesn’t have pitcher hand but I can join it with another table it’ll just be slower but might be work it).

      I haven’t mentioned this yet, but we DO have split projections this year now that will update daily. So, if you want to know how good each batter is expected to be v.L and v.R, we can make that happen.

      Reply
      1. Sean

        Seconded! I often stream hitters based on handed matchup, so I’d love to have platoon projections instead of just going on year to date data.

        Reply
        1. J. Cross (Post author)

          Nice. We’ll get them out there and I think Razzball will be using these in season to help you stream.

          Reply
          1. Sean

            Where can I find these vL/vR projections?

  3. birk

    Is there a way to add other information to the downloadable spreadsheet from FanGraphs? Specifically, team and position for every player.

    Reply
    1. J. Cross

      Not as a user, I’m afraid. I’ve been making lots of requests of Fangraphs so they might be getting sick of me but I’ll put this on the list.

      Reply
    2. Mike

      Steamer projections are available in the Cheatsheet Compiler, a free download from draftbuddy.com (thanks Jared!) If you download that – its an Excel spreadsheet – then you’ll have Steamer projections with the team and position for each player. It is a fantasy baseball custom cheatsheet tool.

      Reply
      1. J. Cross (Post author)

        You’re welcome and thanks for the great tool.

        Reply
  4. Brian

    It’s nice to see those Fangraphs depth charts being put to good use. With regards to rest-of-season R/RBI/Playing Time, is batting order position taken into account, or is a constant R/PA or RBI/PA used regardless of where they bat in the order? If the former, is it weighted, or is it based on a single lineup spot? I find pre-season projections with a rigid batting order spot tend to be too extreme for players that begin the season near the top or bottom of the lineup, since it is often the case that the player will be moved a significant distance from that spot, and not only gain/lose PAs, but also gain/lose likelihood of scoring based on the quality of hitters that follows them in the lineup.

    For instance, last year Jean Segura was projected to be pretty good, but bat near the bottom of the order, followed by the pitcher, with his SB opportunities minimized. So his Runs/SB projections took a hit (in my personal projections). Then he was bumped up to the #2 spot. At that point, would a ROS projection weight it as, say, 50% at the 2 spot and 50% at the 8 spot, if it was uncertain where he’d stay? Or would it choose one or the other, in a binary fashion? So his ROS for Runs Scored would go from something like 70 to 90, per 162 games. Ideally in a situation like this it’d be a weighted average and have a an ROS projection of something like 80, in order to reflect the 50/50 likelihood of him batting 2nd or 8th. I suppose this is as much of a question for Fangraphs with regards to construction of the Depth Charts, as it is for you guys, with regards to how you use them. Any insight is more than appreciated!

    Reply
    1. J. Cross (Post author)

      Right now we are you a % of time expected in each lineup spot but it’s just based on past data with some regression and it isn’t forward looking yet. It will update inseason with the most recent game weighted most heavily so if a player starts batting #2, his R and RBI projections will update accordingly. Of course, it would be great to take into account that some of the guys who hit #8 last year might have a much better chance of hitting #2 this year but I have to admit that we’re not there quite yet. That’s definitely what we’d like to do though.

      Reply
  5. varanasi

    Thanks very much. When you do your ROS updates, are all the stats re-projected or just R and RBI?

    Also, is the goal of ROS to predict the player’s totals at the end of entire season, or are the ROS numbers only to predict numbers going forward? I think it must be the former, but thought I’d ask to be sure.

    Thanks again!

    Reply
    1. Brian

      ROS = Rest of Season, so it only projects the remaining games that haven’t happened. Which is a lot more useful than giving projected end of season numbers.

      Reply
      1. J. Cross (Post author)

        Yes, that’s right. We’ll also have an “update” line on Fangraphs that combines rest of season with what’s happened so far to give the entire season projection.

        Reply
  6. Chris G.

    Is there a way to export all of the hitters and/or pitchers from the Steamer projections on Fangraphs with the players’ positions/teams/ages listed. I recall downloading the files from this site the past two years and those categories were included.

    Thanks

    Reply

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