Our previous regression levels for hitters were too high and didn’t fully reflect the lower offensive levels we’ve been seeing in the last couple of years. Our new lower levels knock hitters down by roughly 3 wOBA points on average (less for more established players but more for players with less history and thus more regression).
One nice aspect of new lower our projected league offensive level is that our projected offensive level is now essentially identical to both ZiPS and Oliver making all three projection systems directly comparable.
Steamer has officially adopted Fangraphs
Parks Factors, the differences are considerably larger than I might have
expected and I think we can all feel good about this change. Park factors were
never something we had great enthusiasm for, some of our park factors were out
of date and, personally, I am quite pleased to pass the buck and rely on Fangraphs here. Go here to
read up on how Fangraphs creates its park factors.
So, how big are the changes and whose projections changed the
We’ve updated our save projections so that now they take advantage of information from the Fangraph Fan Ballots in addition to the Fangraphs Depth Charts.
Before the update, our system was quite simple: all pitchers who were rated as the leading closer candidate for their team were assigned 28 saves, all #2 guys were given 6 saves and all #3 guys were given 3 saves.
Now, Joe Nathan, Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson lead the way with 35 projected saves (our new maximum) and John Axford, despite being the #1 guy on the Indians depth chart falls all the way to 20 saves, with Cody Allen and Vinnie Pestano each taking 8. Danny Farquhar, the #2 guys for the Mariners, goes from only 6 projected saves up to 15, with Fernando Rodney taking 23. Pedro Strop is projected for 9 saves despite ranking 5th in the Cubs pen.
Let me know if anything looks amiss.
We’re backing off just a bit from our stunning original Jose Abreu projection. His projected line, which was .292/.381/.554, is now .279/.364/.518 making him roughly the 12th best hitter in the game. We’ll have more on the reasoning behind this adjustment in the future but we wanted to give early drafters an immediate heads up.