Steamer Update 2/12/14

The first thing that you should know (and hopefully already do know) is that we’re up on Fangraphs. You can download the hitter and pitcher sheets from there by clicking “Export Data.”

The playing time for these projections is based on the Fangraphs Depth Charts which are updated daily by a team of experts and should get more and more accurate as the season approaches.

Yesterday, we updated our projected lineups. During the season this year, our projected lineups will update based on teams’ actual lineups with recent games weighed most heavily and our “rest-of-season” R, RBI and playing time projections will reflect these updates.

We’re hard at work on our code (some genuine improvements along with some spring cleaning) so you can expect a couple of additional updates within the week.

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ESPN Insider: One-pitch Aces

Check out Dash’s analysis of these unique pitchers who are trying to replicate Mariano Rivera’s method of mastering one pitch in order to dominate the competition.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9633923/kenley-jansen-tony-cingrani-thriving-one-pitch-pitchers-mlb

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ESPN Insider: The Right “Stuff”

Here’s our first ESPN Insider piece.

I might follow up here with more on the methodology if folks are interested.

 

 

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The Hollow Under the Knee

Dave Cameron recently suggested that the rise in strikeouts over the last 6 years could be at least partially due to changes in umpiring.  On The Book Blog forum, mcbrown focused in on 0-0 counts with the bases empty and looked at called strike rates, ball rates and swing rates by year.  I thought it might be interesting to follow his lead and look at pitches taken on 0-0 counts with the bases empty (right-handed hitters only) and see if the called strike zone has changed.  Brian Mills and David Golebiewski have looked at this before.

strikezones

It’s not obvious or dramatic but it looks like the bottom of the called strike zone has moved down a bit matching what David Golebiewski found when looking at this after the 2011 season.  Look at 2008 and 2009, the center of the bottom dashed line falls in the sky blue range indicating something like a 35% chance of a strike call.  By 2011 and 2012, it’s in the green, suggesting roughly a 50% chance of a strike call.

There’s another little bit of trickiness based on how I collected the data above.  Hoping to get a less hazy look at the bottom and top of the strike zone, I limited the data to pitches on which the mlbam stringer had entered an “sz_bot” and “sz_top” (indicated the bottom and top of the strikezone) that were within 0.1 feet of the average values over the five year span.  This would throw out the tall/upright and short/crouching batters.  But maybe all we’re seeing in the images above are changes in how the stringers enter the bottom of the strike zone?  Brian Mills looked at this issue as well as the issue of systematic bias in strike zone designations.  He suggests that there were a changes in how sz_bot and sz_top were assigned some time in 2007.  I left 2007 out of this analysis completely.  To check for moving strike zone designations, I looked at batters who stepped up to the plate in all five years (339 of them) and looked at the average bottom and top that had been assigned to each batter in each year and then the average of those averages for each year.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
bottom 1.59 1.63 1.68 1.61 1.60
top 3.44 3.44 3.46 3.43 3.45

It looks like something a little funny happened in  2010 where for the same group of hitters the average sz_bot snuck up by about an inch but there doesn’t appear to be a trend in designated strike zone size.

So, has the bottom of the strike zone moved down?  And how much difference could this make?

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Final 2013 Steamer Projections

The final batch of Steamer Projections (for posterity, I suppose) welcomes Jose Fernandez and reluctantly accepts that Johan Santana is out for the year.

You can find them here.

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The Rosenheck Factor

Dan Rosenheck showed that pitchers who get more pop ups and more swings and misses in the strike zone tend to have lower BABIPs and lower ERAs.  Steve Saude also wrote about this back in October.  As of today, Steamers’ pitcher projections take these factors into account.

Why did we wait until two days before the start of the season for this update?!?!

Well, Dan plays in a high stakes fantasy league that drafted last night and he didn’t want his secret sauce to get out to the public before the big draft.  Anyway, the table below shows ERAs, BABIPs and WHIPs both before and after this adjustment.  Ted Lilly gains the most from this adjustment but Marco Estrada’s jump might matter more to fantasy players;  Dan won Estrada in last night’s auction but had to pay $11, so he wasn’t the only one interested.

[Note: After making this update, we also shifted Ted Lilly towards more of a bullpen role which brings his ERA down to 3.80]

Name
ERA
ERAold
BABIP
BABIPold
WHIP
WHIPold
Ted Lilly 4.05 4.27 0.280 0.284 1.29 1.31
Neftali Feliz 3.34 3.51 0.280 0.286 1.29 1.31
Chris Young 4.75 4.92 0.278 0.280 1.38 1.39
Marco Estrada 3.66 3.81 0.283 0.287 1.21 1.23
Tyler Clippard 3.01 3.16 0.272 0.279 1.20 1.23
Bruce Chen 4.38 4.53 0.287 0.288 1.35 1.35
Phil Hughes 4.10 4.24 0.285 0.287 1.28 1.29
Colby Lewis 3.90 4.04 0.283 0.285 1.23 1.24
J.J. Hoover 3.27 3.41 0.283 0.287 1.26 1.27
Antonio Bastardo 2.88 3.01 0.277 0.284 1.20 1.22
David Hernandez 2.85 2.98 0.282 0.287 1.19 1.21
Josh Lindblom 3.90 4.02 0.282 0.285 1.37 1.38
Jordan Norberto 3.80 3.92 0.287 0.290 1.40 1.42
Matt Moore 3.72 3.83 0.281 0.286 1.29 1.31
Alexi Ogando 3.99 4.10 0.285 0.288 1.29 1.3
Chris Capuano 3.62 3.73 0.287 0.289 1.22 1.23
Logan Ondrusek 4.22 4.33 0.291 0.292 1.44 1.45
Jon Rauch 3.64 3.75 0.288 0.289 1.29 1.29
Johan Santana 3.98 4.09 0.285 0.288 1.28 1.29
Troy Patton 3.70 3.81 0.290 0.292 1.29 1.3
Fernando Rodriguez 3.71 3.81 0.282 0.285 1.36 1.37
Kenley Jansen 2.31 2.41 0.276 0.285 1.10 1.13
Jonathan Papelbon 2.59 2.69 0.285 0.291 1.09 1.11
Alfredo Aceves 3.73 3.83 0.290 0.291 1.35 1.35
Tony Sipp 3.70 3.80 0.285 0.288 1.35 1.36
Ernesto Frieri 3.05 3.15 0.270 0.277 1.24 1.26
Michael Gonzalez 3.43 3.53 0.289 0.293 1.30 1.32
Dallas Braden 4.25 4.35 0.288 0.289 1.31 1.32
Josh Collmenter 3.99 4.10 0.287 0.289 1.28 1.28
Justin Verlander 3.36 3.46 0.285 0.289 1.16 1.17
Jose Valverde 3.75 3.85 0.291 0.293 1.36 1.37
Freddy Garcia 3.66 3.76 0.288 0.289 1.25 1.25
Ryan Webb 3.43 3.53 0.302 0.303 1.34 1.34
Jason Vargas 4.38 4.48 0.283 0.284 1.32 1.32
Jon Lester 3.79 3.88 0.299 0.300 1.31 1.31
Jesse Crain 3.47 3.56 0.283 0.288 1.30 1.31
Danny Duffy 3.79 3.88 0.290 0.292 1.33 1.34
Jeff Niemann 4.08 4.17 0.291 0.292 1.31 1.31
Jeremy Hellickson 4.37 4.46 0.285 0.287 1.36 1.36
Clayton Kershaw 3.16 3.25 0.287 0.291 1.15 1.16
Jered Weaver 3.83 3.92 0.279 0.281 1.21 1.22
Nick Hagadone 3.83 3.92 0.288 0.291 1.40 1.41
Matt Cain 3.67 3.76 0.287 0.288 1.22 1.22
Scott Feldman 3.70 3.78 0.294 0.294 1.26 1.26
Wade Davis 4.45 4.53 0.291 0.291 1.41 1.41
Jason Grilli 2.75 2.83 0.284 0.288 1.17 1.18
Eric Stults 4.28 4.36 0.289 0.289 1.35 1.35
Michael Bowden 3.85 3.93 0.286 0.287 1.38 1.38
Rafael Soriano 3.15 3.23 0.285 0.288 1.22 1.23
Brandon Gomes 3.59 3.67 0.284 0.286 1.31 1.32
Drew Smyly 3.65 3.73 0.286 0.288 1.26 1.27
Jose Mijares 3.57 3.65 0.287 0.288 1.32 1.33
A.J. Griffin 4.07 4.15 0.288 0.289 1.28 1.28
Dan Haren 3.47 3.55 0.290 0.291 1.15 1.15
John Lackey 4.43 4.51 0.295 0.294 1.38 1.38
Josh Beckett 3.73 3.81 0.290 0.292 1.24 1.25
Shaun Marcum 3.98 4.06 0.288 0.290 1.26 1.27
Hisanori Takahashi 3.40 3.47 0.288 0.291 1.25 1.26
Samuel Deduno 4.82 4.89 0.301 0.301 1.56 1.56
Bartolo Colon 4.01 4.09 0.294 0.292 1.25 1.25
Tyler Skaggs 4.22 4.29 0.290 0.291 1.36 1.37
Mariano Rivera 3.15 3.22 0.293 0.296 1.19 1.19
Grant Balfour 3.46 3.53 0.284 0.287 1.29 1.3
Luis Avilan 3.62 3.69 0.290 0.292 1.34 1.35
Hiroki Kuroda 3.98 4.05 0.296 0.297 1.27 1.27
Collin McHugh 4.32 4.39 0.291 0.293 1.37 1.37
Roy Halladay 3.45 3.52 0.295 0.296 1.16 1.17
Jake Peavy 3.94 4.01 0.287 0.288 1.23 1.23
Chris Tillman 4.59 4.66 0.287 0.287 1.40 1.4
Drew Pomeranz 4.55 4.62 0.300 0.301 1.43 1.44
Darren O’Day 3.43 3.50 0.285 0.287 1.22 1.23
Joe Paterson 4.16 4.22 0.296 0.296 1.44 1.44
Alfredo Simon 3.47 3.54 0.294 0.296 1.27 1.28
Dan Straily 4.10 4.16 0.284 0.285 1.33 1.33
Barry Zito 4.71 4.77 0.290 0.289 1.44 1.44
Frank Herrmann 3.88 3.94 0.289 0.289 1.33 1.34
Javier Lopez 3.67 3.73 0.300 0.301 1.38 1.39
Tony Watson 3.37 3.43 0.286 0.289 1.28 1.29
Cliff Lee 3.20 3.26 0.291 0.293 1.09 1.1
Anthony Bass 3.74 3.80 0.292 0.292 1.29 1.3
Mitchell Boggs 3.34 3.40 0.296 0.297 1.29 1.29
Edgmer Escalona 4.12 4.18 0.295 0.297 1.40 1.41
Raul Valdes 3.20 3.26 0.284 0.287 1.18 1.19
Matt Guerrier 3.90 3.96 0.289 0.290 1.36 1.36
Jeremy Horst 3.78 3.84 0.290 0.292 1.34 1.35
Darren Oliver 3.30 3.36 0.297 0.298 1.24 1.24
Daniel Hudson 4.01 4.06 0.291 0.292 1.27 1.27
Matt Garza 3.66 3.72 0.290 0.291 1.23 1.24
James Russell 3.78 3.84 0.284 0.286 1.30 1.31
Jeremy Affeldt 3.33 3.39 0.301 0.301 1.32 1.32
Michael Kohn 3.83 3.89 0.282 0.284 1.39 1.39
Vinnie Pestano 3.21 3.27 0.287 0.292 1.24 1.25
Luke Gregerson 3.18 3.23 0.290 0.293 1.23 1.24
Tommy Milone 3.89 3.95 0.289 0.288 1.22 1.21
Matt Harvey 3.90 3.95 0.291 0.293 1.32 1.33
Joakim Soria 3.50 3.55 0.289 0.291 1.27 1.27
Scott Baker 3.74 3.79 0.286 0.287 1.21 1.22
Cole Hamels 3.40 3.45 0.290 0.294 1.16 1.17
Jorge de la Rosa 4.48 4.53 0.301 0.302 1.39 1.4
Tyson Ross 4.00 4.05 0.296 0.296 1.38 1.38
Luis Perez 3.84 3.89 0.301 0.302 1.39 1.4
Craig Stammen 3.87 3.92 0.293 0.294 1.31 1.32
Andy Pettitte 3.87 3.92 0.297 0.297 1.27 1.27
Rick Porcello 4.13 4.18 0.300 0.298 1.33 1.32
Mike Adams 3.35 3.40 0.292 0.294 1.23 1.24
Eric O’Flaherty 3.21 3.26 0.298 0.299 1.29 1.29
Justin De Fratus 3.42 3.47 0.292 0.294 1.27 1.28
Yu Darvish 3.38 3.42 0.290 0.294 1.20 1.21
Trevor Rosenthal 3.19 3.24 0.292 0.294 1.26 1.27
Carlos Villanueva 3.80 3.85 0.286 0.287 1.28 1.28
Aroldis Chapman 2.35 2.40 0.283 0.292 1.11 1.13
Robbie Ross 3.50 3.54 0.299 0.299 1.31 1.31
Ian Kennedy 3.89 3.93 0.289 0.290 1.24 1.25
Shelby Miller 3.90 3.94 0.291 0.292 1.32 1.33
Frank Francisco 3.43 3.47 0.289 0.292 1.28 1.29
Nick Vincent 3.28 3.32 0.287 0.289 1.25 1.26
Xavier Cedeno 3.83 3.88 0.292 0.292 1.35 1.35
Blake Beavan 4.88 4.92 0.291 0.288 1.36 1.35
Luis Ayala 3.97 4.01 0.295 0.294 1.34 1.34
Robert Carson 4.04 4.08 0.293 0.293 1.41 1.41
Daniel Bard 4.10 4.14 0.296 0.296 1.47 1.47
Brandon McCarthy 3.90 3.94 0.298 0.297 1.25 1.24
Al Alburquerque 3.15 3.19 0.289 0.294 1.27 1.28
Randall Delgado 4.16 4.19 0.296 0.297 1.39 1.4
Jose Arredondo 3.89 3.93 0.290 0.292 1.38 1.39
Jhoulys Chacin 4.69 4.73 0.305 0.304 1.46 1.46
Sam LeCure 3.41 3.45 0.292 0.293 1.25 1.26
George Kontos 3.47 3.51 0.292 0.293 1.28 1.29
Franklin Morales 4.01 4.05 0.288 0.290 1.37 1.38
Michael Stutes 3.91 3.95 0.287 0.287 1.38 1.39
Erasmo Ramirez 4.38 4.42 0.292 0.291 1.33 1.33
Todd Redmond 4.31 4.35 0.292 0.292 1.33 1.33
Jared Burton 3.61 3.64 0.293 0.295 1.30 1.31
Michael Pineda 3.74 3.77 0.288 0.290 1.24 1.25
Joe Nathan 2.98 3.01 0.288 0.290 1.17 1.17
Steve Cishek 3.46 3.49 0.296 0.298 1.32 1.33
Chris Leroux 3.43 3.46 0.294 0.294 1.27 1.27
Aaron Laffey 4.00 4.03 0.301 0.299 1.39 1.38
Brad Ziegler 3.39 3.43 0.310 0.309 1.38 1.38
Mike Dunn 3.59 3.62 0.287 0.290 1.36 1.37
Koji Uehara 2.72 2.75 0.282 0.287 1.09 1.1
Drew Storen 3.13 3.16 0.291 0.293 1.22 1.23
Max Scherzer 3.43 3.46 0.284 0.287 1.18 1.19
Alex Burnett 4.25 4.28 0.298 0.297 1.44 1.43
Roberto Hernandez 4.16 4.19 0.299 0.297 1.35 1.35
Brian Matusz 3.77 3.80 0.286 0.286 1.30 1.3
Tanner Scheppers 3.59 3.62 0.290 0.291 1.30 1.31
Matt Capps 4.01 4.04 0.294 0.294 1.33 1.33
Randy Choate 3.43 3.46 0.299 0.301 1.33 1.34
Tom Gorzelanny 3.63 3.66 0.289 0.290 1.30 1.31
Matt Harrison 4.34 4.36 0.296 0.295 1.36 1.36
Jeff Locke 4.11 4.14 0.292 0.292 1.34 1.34
Sam Demel 3.65 3.67 0.298 0.298 1.34 1.35
Eduardo Sanchez 3.95 3.98 0.288 0.290 1.44 1.45
Kyle Drabek 5.23 5.25 0.303 0.302 1.60 1.6
Andrew Bailey 3.50 3.52 0.290 0.291 1.30 1.3
Mat Latos 3.81 3.84 0.290 0.291 1.24 1.25
Derek Holland 4.07 4.09 0.291 0.291 1.30 1.3
Ryan Vogelsong 4.13 4.15 0.293 0.292 1.34 1.34
Alex Sanabia 4.49 4.51 0.291 0.290 1.36 1.35
Casey Kelly 3.86 3.88 0.293 0.293 1.29 1.29
Jarrod Parker 4.23 4.25 0.294 0.294 1.36 1.36
Aaron Harang 4.36 4.38 0.289 0.288 1.38 1.38
Brandon Lyon 3.65 3.67 0.292 0.292 1.30 1.3
Bobby Parnell 3.18 3.20 0.300 0.302 1.26 1.26
David Huff 4.19 4.21 0.290 0.289 1.33 1.33
Matt Thornton 3.38 3.40 0.295 0.297 1.26 1.27
R.A. Dickey 4.16 4.17 0.297 0.299 1.29 1.3
Sean Marshall 2.83 2.85 0.297 0.299 1.17 1.17
Brett Cecil 4.63 4.64 0.295 0.294 1.39 1.39
Rob Scahill 4.98 5.00 0.303 0.302 1.52 1.52
Duane Below 4.13 4.15 0.292 0.291 1.37 1.36
Doug Fister 3.83 3.84 0.297 0.295 1.23 1.23
Thad Weber 4.16 4.18 0.295 0.294 1.33 1.32
Cesar Ramos 3.87 3.88 0.293 0.293 1.36 1.36
Tommy Hunter 3.78 3.80 0.294 0.291 1.25 1.23
Ross Detwiler 4.29 4.30 0.296 0.294 1.37 1.36
Tyler Thornburg 4.10 4.11 0.293 0.293 1.36 1.36
Bronson Arroyo 4.59 4.60 0.292 0.289 1.32 1.31
Jordan Walden 2.98 2.99 0.289 0.292 1.22 1.23
Chris Sale 3.62 3.63 0.293 0.295 1.23 1.23
John Danks 4.58 4.59 0.293 0.293 1.37 1.37
Jonathan Broxton 3.42 3.43 0.296 0.297 1.29 1.29
Chad Durbin 3.94 3.95 0.294 0.293 1.37 1.37
Johnny Cueto 3.99 4.00 0.296 0.295 1.27 1.27
Chris Resop 3.99 4.00 0.291 0.290 1.37 1.37
Jonny Venters 2.93 2.94 0.301 0.303 1.27 1.28
Jon Niese 3.78 3.79 0.299 0.298 1.26 1.26
Kelvin Herrera 3.04 3.05 0.299 0.301 1.23 1.23
Luis Mendoza 4.48 4.49 0.304 0.301 1.45 1.43
J.A. Happ 4.32 4.33 0.292 0.292 1.39 1.39
Pedro Strop 3.74 3.75 0.297 0.299 1.39 1.4
Rafael Betancourt 3.37 3.38 0.291 0.294 1.19 1.2
Jake Arrieta 4.20 4.21 0.292 0.292 1.36 1.36
Phillippe Aumont 3.85 3.86 0.295 0.297 1.42 1.43
Henderson Alvarez 4.01 4.02 0.306 0.304 1.36 1.34
Alex Cobb 3.83 3.84 0.300 0.299 1.32 1.31
Chris Perez 3.68 3.69 0.289 0.289 1.32 1.32
Glen Perkins 3.09 3.10 0.293 0.295 1.19 1.2
Gio Gonzalez 3.53 3.54 0.293 0.295 1.25 1.26
Yusmeiro Petit 4.11 4.12 0.294 0.293 1.30 1.29
Adam Warren 5.06 5.07 0.294 0.293 1.48 1.47
Kyle Farnsworth 3.46 3.47 0.291 0.292 1.27 1.28
Ryan Madson 3.31 3.32 0.286 0.288 1.24 1.25
John Ely 3.14 3.15 0.292 0.293 1.19 1.19
Chris Narveson 4.48 4.49 0.292 0.291 1.38 1.38
Carlos Torres 4.14 4.15 0.303 0.302 1.42 1.42
Kyle McPherson 3.79 3.79 0.292 0.292 1.24 1.24
Clayton Mortensen 4.03 4.04 0.296 0.295 1.39 1.39
Everett Teaford 4.48 4.48 0.298 0.296 1.43 1.42
A.J. Burnett 3.84 3.84 0.299 0.298 1.31 1.31
Esmil Rogers 3.57 3.57 0.299 0.299 1.30 1.3
Gavin Floyd 4.20 4.20 0.295 0.295 1.31 1.31
Bryan Morris 3.49 3.49 0.293 0.293 1.29 1.29
Eric Surkamp 4.06 4.06 0.292 0.291 1.32 1.32
Casey Coleman 3.83 3.83 0.293 0.292 1.35 1.34
Hector Noesi 4.79 4.79 0.289 0.289 1.42 1.42
Heath Bell 3.83 3.83 0.297 0.296 1.37 1.37
Chris Rusin 4.66 4.66 0.294 0.292 1.42 1.41
Arodys Vizcaino 3.90 3.90 0.290 0.290 1.30 1.3
Jared Hughes 3.57 3.57 0.300 0.299 1.33 1.32
Blake Wood 3.69 3.69 0.297 0.298 1.35 1.35
David Robertson 2.98 2.98 0.292 0.295 1.21 1.21
Chris Hatcher 3.76 3.76 0.294 0.293 1.36 1.36
Kyuji Fujikawa 2.96 2.96 0.290 0.292 1.20 1.2
Gerrit Cole 3.96 3.96 0.292 0.292 1.33 1.33
Zack Wheeler 4.38 4.38 0.295 0.295 1.43 1.43
JC Ramirez 4.14 4.14 0.294 0.293 1.40 1.4
Brian Duensing 4.31 4.31 0.298 0.296 1.35 1.34
Brandon Morrow 3.99 3.99 0.293 0.294 1.30 1.3
Kevin Jepsen 3.46 3.46 0.288 0.289 1.29 1.29
Hyun-jin Ryu 3.69 3.69 0.292 0.292 1.25 1.26
Aaron Crow 3.40 3.40 0.298 0.300 1.30 1.31
Tom Layne 3.84 3.84 0.292 0.291 1.37 1.37
Brad Brach 3.19 3.19 0.284 0.286 1.24 1.25
Hector Ambriz 4.25 4.25 0.291 0.291 1.43 1.43
Francisco Rodriguez 3.51 3.51 0.294 0.294 1.30 1.3
Sergio Romo 2.74 2.74 0.287 0.291 1.10 1.12
Jhan Marinez 4.44 4.44 0.292 0.292 1.53 1.53
David Price 3.44 3.44 0.292 0.293 1.20 1.2
Fernando Rodney 3.20 3.20 0.294 0.297 1.26 1.26
Andrew Cashner 3.42 3.42 0.291 0.294 1.23 1.24
Paco Rodriguez 3.36 3.36 0.292 0.293 1.30 1.31
Shawn Camp 3.84 3.84 0.297 0.296 1.34 1.33
Brian Wilson 3.50 3.50 0.295 0.296 1.31 1.32
Mark Lowe 3.53 3.53 0.292 0.293 1.30 1.3
Wade LeBlanc 4.38 4.38 0.289 0.288 1.34 1.34
Shawn Kelley 3.64 3.63 0.283 0.284 1.30 1.3
Adam Ottavino 3.86 3.86 0.304 0.304 1.37 1.38
Tony Cingrani 3.91 3.91 0.292 0.293 1.31 1.32
Craig Breslow 3.72 3.71 0.291 0.291 1.33 1.33
Octavio Dotel 3.31 3.31 0.282 0.285 1.22 1.23
Mark Rogers 4.91 4.91 0.292 0.292 1.53 1.53
Craig Kimbrel 1.84 1.84 0.282 0.290 0.99 1.01
Wily Peralta 4.32 4.32 0.297 0.297 1.44 1.44
Brad Boxberger 3.23 3.23 0.286 0.288 1.29 1.3
David Herndon 4.04 4.04 0.299 0.298 1.39 1.38
Elvin Ramirez 4.24 4.24 0.294 0.294 1.50 1.5
Jerry Blevins 3.82 3.81 0.287 0.288 1.34 1.35
Anibal Sanchez 4.04 4.03 0.290 0.291 1.27 1.27
Nick Masset 3.59 3.58 0.294 0.295 1.31 1.31
Jason Frasor 3.40 3.39 0.292 0.294 1.28 1.29
Leyson Septimo 4.59 4.58 0.292 0.292 1.58 1.58
Brett Anderson 3.83 3.82 0.301 0.300 1.29 1.28
Greg Holland 3.08 3.07 0.292 0.295 1.25 1.26
Trevor Cahill 3.95 3.95 0.306 0.305 1.36 1.36
Luke Hochevar 4.25 4.24 0.298 0.297 1.35 1.34
Josh Roenicke 4.52 4.51 0.297 0.296 1.50 1.49
Carl Pavano 4.19 4.18 0.302 0.299 1.29 1.27
Jon Garland 4.80 4.79 0.305 0.303 1.46 1.45
Evan Scribner 3.84 3.83 0.291 0.289 1.34 1.33
Jeremy Guthrie 4.77 4.77 0.297 0.293 1.42 1.4
Oliver Perez 4.12 4.11 0.288 0.287 1.43 1.43
Joel Peralta 3.22 3.21 0.278 0.280 1.19 1.19
Fernando Salas 3.43 3.42 0.286 0.287 1.28 1.28
Cory Luebke 3.64 3.63 0.288 0.289 1.23 1.24
Rex Brothers 3.45 3.44 0.300 0.303 1.33 1.34
Jenrry Mejia 4.43 4.42 0.302 0.300 1.45 1.44
Carlos Marmol 3.55 3.54 0.285 0.288 1.37 1.38
Ryan Mattheus 3.81 3.80 0.296 0.295 1.35 1.35
Brandon Kintzler 3.79 3.78 0.298 0.297 1.35 1.35
Ronald Belisario 3.22 3.21 0.301 0.302 1.30 1.3
Phil Coke 3.74 3.73 0.291 0.291 1.31 1.31
Julio Teheran 4.47 4.46 0.288 0.287 1.38 1.38
CC Sabathia 3.57 3.56 0.297 0.298 1.20 1.2
Henry Rodriguez 3.47 3.46 0.289 0.291 1.34 1.35
Will Harris 3.92 3.91 0.300 0.300 1.36 1.36
Pedro Beato 4.19 4.18 0.296 0.295 1.44 1.43
Jim Johnson 3.54 3.53 0.302 0.301 1.31 1.3
Wei-Yin Chen 4.29 4.28 0.287 0.287 1.31 1.31
Jeff Francis 4.31 4.30 0.307 0.305 1.32 1.31
Jaye Chapman 4.05 4.04 0.292 0.292 1.45 1.45
Liam Hendriks 4.50 4.49 0.296 0.294 1.35 1.34
Dillon Gee 4.09 4.08 0.298 0.297 1.31 1.31
J.J. Putz 2.98 2.97 0.294 0.295 1.17 1.17
Brad Lincoln 3.41 3.40 0.296 0.296 1.22 1.22
John Lannan 4.68 4.67 0.303 0.300 1.47 1.45
Brad Hand 4.98 4.97 0.289 0.288 1.56 1.55
Pat Neshek 4.14 4.13 0.287 0.286 1.39 1.39
Casey Crosby 5.17 5.16 0.293 0.292 1.59 1.58
Joaquin Benoit 3.11 3.10 0.283 0.287 1.18 1.2
Chris Carpenter 4.35 4.33 0.296 0.295 1.51 1.51
Sean Doolittle 2.73 2.71 0.284 0.287 1.15 1.16
Mike Minor 3.97 3.95 0.285 0.285 1.28 1.28
Miguel Gonzalez 4.54 4.53 0.288 0.287 1.37 1.37
Jordan Lyles 4.51 4.49 0.296 0.294 1.36 1.35
Felix Hernandez 3.45 3.43 0.298 0.298 1.19 1.19
Mike Fiers 4.02 4.00 0.289 0.289 1.28 1.28
Jordan Zimmermann 3.79 3.77 0.292 0.291 1.22 1.21
Josh Stinson 4.62 4.60 0.296 0.294 1.51 1.5
Jerome Williams 3.87 3.86 0.295 0.294 1.28 1.28
Justin Wilson 3.69 3.67 0.291 0.291 1.37 1.37
Brandon Beachy 3.67 3.65 0.285 0.286 1.23 1.23
Brooks Raley 4.81 4.79 0.293 0.290 1.45 1.44
David Carpenter 4.19 4.18 0.290 0.289 1.43 1.43
Joe Savery 3.96 3.94 0.295 0.293 1.35 1.35
Travis Wood 4.12 4.10 0.285 0.284 1.31 1.3
Darin Downs 3.86 3.84 0.291 0.290 1.33 1.33
Bryan Shaw 4.07 4.05 0.301 0.300 1.42 1.41
Wandy Rodriguez 4.20 4.18 0.296 0.294 1.33 1.33
Lucas Luetge 4.08 4.06 0.294 0.294 1.42 1.42
J.P. Howell 3.71 3.69 0.296 0.296 1.36 1.36
Brandon League 3.32 3.30 0.301 0.301 1.30 1.3
Daisuke Matsuzaka 4.76 4.74 0.290 0.288 1.44 1.43
Lucas Harrell 4.69 4.66 0.302 0.300 1.48 1.46
Chad Jenkins 5.28 5.25 0.301 0.297 1.50 1.48
Miles Mikolas 3.65 3.63 0.294 0.293 1.34 1.33
Josh Outman 4.67 4.65 0.302 0.301 1.48 1.47
Mark Melancon 3.26 3.24 0.298 0.298 1.27 1.27
Joe Smith 3.87 3.85 0.303 0.302 1.39 1.39
Tyler Chatwood 5.12 5.10 0.311 0.307 1.58 1.57
Martin Perez 5.21 5.18 0.296 0.293 1.57 1.56
Dallas Keuchel 5.18 5.16 0.298 0.294 1.49 1.47
Jose Ceda 3.50 3.48 0.292 0.293 1.33 1.33
Andrew Miller 3.87 3.85 0.295 0.295 1.43 1.43
Kris Medlen 3.61 3.59 0.294 0.294 1.21 1.21
Stephen Strasburg 2.84 2.82 0.290 0.293 1.08 1.09
Carlos Carrasco 4.11 4.09 0.298 0.297 1.33 1.33
Robbie Erlin 3.95 3.92 0.291 0.290 1.26 1.26
Nick Tepesch 4.65 4.62 0.292 0.290 1.42 1.41
Brad Bergesen 4.73 4.70 0.299 0.296 1.42 1.41
Ryan Cook 3.42 3.39 0.290 0.292 1.29 1.29
Huston Street 2.92 2.90 0.285 0.287 1.15 1.16
Jake McGee 2.76 2.73 0.286 0.288 1.14 1.15
Bruce Rondon 3.72 3.69 0.289 0.290 1.40 1.4
Cesar Cabral 3.84 3.81 0.294 0.293 1.37 1.37
Kyle Gibson 4.30 4.27 0.294 0.293 1.34 1.34
Nestor Molina 4.76 4.73 0.294 0.292 1.38 1.37
Simon Castro 4.91 4.88 0.294 0.292 1.43 1.42
Charlie Leesman 5.58 5.55 0.294 0.292 1.62 1.61
Nathan Eovaldi 4.54 4.51 0.296 0.295 1.44 1.43
Tommy Hottovy 4.22 4.19 0.296 0.295 1.45 1.44
Michael Kirkman 3.99 3.96 0.289 0.288 1.43 1.42
Alberto Cabrera 3.78 3.75 0.291 0.291 1.36 1.36
Mike Pelfrey 4.86 4.83 0.298 0.294 1.43 1.42
Danny Hultzen 4.78 4.76 0.291 0.291 1.53 1.53
Tsuyoshi Wada 4.45 4.42 0.291 0.290 1.35 1.34
Sonny Gray 4.97 4.94 0.293 0.291 1.50 1.49
Felix Doubront 4.02 3.99 0.296 0.296 1.34 1.34
Jacob Turner 4.50 4.47 0.296 0.294 1.40 1.39
Josh Fields 3.93 3.90 0.291 0.291 1.40 1.4
Rudy Owens 4.64 4.61 0.293 0.291 1.37 1.36
Francisco Liriano 3.88 3.85 0.294 0.296 1.32 1.33
Jake Westbrook 4.13 4.10 0.306 0.303 1.40 1.38
Tyler Cloyd 4.51 4.48 0.291 0.289 1.33 1.32
Brayan Villarreal 3.52 3.49 0.284 0.286 1.31 1.31
Trevor Bauer 4.31 4.28 0.294 0.294 1.41 1.41
Kyle Lohse 4.25 4.22 0.295 0.292 1.29 1.27
James Shields 3.67 3.64 0.299 0.298 1.23 1.23
Patrick Corbin 4.06 4.03 0.299 0.297 1.31 1.3
Jeff Samardzija 4.01 3.98 0.290 0.291 1.33 1.33
Cody Eppley 4.08 4.05 0.302 0.301 1.43 1.43
Jake Diekman 3.82 3.79 0.294 0.296 1.42 1.42
Nate Jones 3.89 3.86 0.294 0.294 1.37 1.37
Zack Greinke 3.26 3.23 0.296 0.296 1.15 1.15
Jason Berken 4.61 4.58 0.295 0.292 1.41 1.4
Clay Rapada 3.97 3.94 0.294 0.294 1.37 1.37
Zach Duke 4.33 4.30 0.298 0.295 1.35 1.34
Travis Blackley 4.26 4.23 0.294 0.293 1.36 1.35
Ubaldo Jimenez 4.53 4.50 0.295 0.294 1.42 1.42
Vin Mazzaro 4.94 4.90 0.299 0.296 1.52 1.5
Cory Gearrin 3.50 3.47 0.294 0.294 1.31 1.32
Shawn Tolleson 3.24 3.20 0.290 0.290 1.26 1.26
Mark Buehrle 4.82 4.78 0.300 0.296 1.38 1.36
Wilton Lopez 3.57 3.53 0.309 0.308 1.28 1.28
A.J. Ramos 3.39 3.36 0.292 0.293 1.31 1.31
Jim Henderson 3.66 3.63 0.292 0.293 1.35 1.36
Chris Archer 4.39 4.36 0.290 0.289 1.45 1.45
Santiago Casilla 3.56 3.53 0.298 0.297 1.33 1.33
Jesse Chavez 3.54 3.51 0.289 0.288 1.25 1.25
Steve Johnson 4.94 4.91 0.285 0.285 1.48 1.48
Tim Byrdak 3.77 3.73 0.289 0.289 1.36 1.36
Lance Lynn 3.78 3.74 0.293 0.294 1.28 1.28
Cole DeVries 4.80 4.76 0.290 0.287 1.38 1.37
Justin Masterson 4.19 4.15 0.305 0.303 1.38 1.37
Paul Maholm 4.10 4.07 0.299 0.296 1.33 1.31
Mike Leake 4.19 4.15 0.299 0.297 1.30 1.29
Dane de la Rosa 4.00 3.96 0.292 0.291 1.43 1.42
Dylan Bundy 4.45 4.41 0.290 0.289 1.38 1.38
Jose Veras 3.89 3.85 0.288 0.289 1.38 1.38
Cristhian Martinez 3.44 3.40 0.292 0.293 1.23 1.24
Jeremy Hefner 4.47 4.43 0.297 0.294 1.36 1.35
Rafael Dolis 4.22 4.18 0.296 0.294 1.47 1.47
Casey Janssen 3.28 3.24 0.299 0.299 1.22 1.22
Tom Wilhelmsen 3.48 3.44 0.291 0.292 1.29 1.29
Scott Maine 4.22 4.18 0.292 0.291 1.45 1.44
Scott Elbert 3.66 3.62 0.289 0.290 1.35 1.36
Jose Ortega 4.53 4.49 0.291 0.290 1.55 1.54
Javy Guerra 3.91 3.87 0.294 0.293 1.39 1.39
Vance Worley 4.42 4.38 0.296 0.293 1.37 1.36
Chien-Ming Wang 5.04 5.00 0.301 0.297 1.46 1.44
David Aardsma 4.09 4.05 0.293 0.292 1.40 1.4
Josh Johnson 4.17 4.13 0.300 0.298 1.32 1.32
Ervin Santana 4.40 4.35 0.297 0.294 1.37 1.36
Homer Bailey 4.09 4.05 0.293 0.292 1.27 1.26
Jake Odorizzi 4.53 4.49 0.289 0.288 1.40 1.4
Josh Kinney 3.84 3.79 0.294 0.293 1.35 1.35
Marcos Mateo 3.55 3.51 0.289 0.289 1.30 1.3
Jose Quintana 4.74 4.70 0.298 0.296 1.43 1.42
Luke Putkonen 4.37 4.33 0.294 0.292 1.43 1.42
Scott Downs 3.68 3.64 0.298 0.296 1.35 1.34
Scott Kazmir 5.03 4.99 0.293 0.291 1.52 1.51
Dale Thayer 3.44 3.39 0.290 0.289 1.25 1.24
Stephen Pryor 3.79 3.75 0.289 0.290 1.40 1.41
Tom Koehler 3.75 3.70 0.292 0.291 1.34 1.33
Matt Albers 3.91 3.86 0.300 0.299 1.38 1.38
Jason Hammel 4.34 4.30 0.295 0.293 1.35 1.34
Barry Enright 5.20 5.16 0.285 0.281 1.51 1.49
Brad Peacock 4.47 4.43 0.290 0.289 1.42 1.41
Burke Badenhop 3.68 3.63 0.304 0.301 1.34 1.33
Bud Norris 4.32 4.28 0.288 0.288 1.35 1.34
Donnie Veal 4.01 3.96 0.292 0.292 1.40 1.4
Yovani Gallardo 3.75 3.70 0.296 0.295 1.26 1.25
Wesley Wright 3.87 3.83 0.296 0.295 1.35 1.35
Chad Billingsley 4.05 4.00 0.295 0.293 1.31 1.3
Philip Humber 4.53 4.48 0.293 0.290 1.35 1.34
Jaime Garcia 3.67 3.62 0.301 0.299 1.26 1.25
Madison Bumgarner 3.49 3.44 0.295 0.294 1.18 1.18
Dylan Axelrod 4.52 4.47 0.294 0.293 1.38 1.37
Fautino De Los Santos 3.71 3.66 0.293 0.293 1.35 1.35
Hisashi Iwakuma 4.14 4.09 0.299 0.297 1.32 1.31
Stephen Fife 4.84 4.79 0.294 0.291 1.46 1.45
Joe Saunders 4.76 4.71 0.296 0.291 1.39 1.37
Edward Mujica 3.41 3.36 0.294 0.294 1.23 1.22
Ivan Nova 4.23 4.18 0.301 0.298 1.34 1.33
Tyler Robertson 4.14 4.09 0.296 0.295 1.42 1.41
Garrett Richards 4.53 4.48 0.291 0.289 1.43 1.43
Ricky Nolasco 4.13 4.08 0.298 0.295 1.28 1.27
Joe Blanton 3.94 3.89 0.289 0.288 1.22 1.22
Jeff Karstens 4.19 4.14 0.293 0.290 1.27 1.26
John Axford 3.13 3.08 0.294 0.296 1.24 1.25
Justin Grimm 4.70 4.64 0.294 0.292 1.41 1.4
Dan Jennings 4.26 4.21 0.296 0.294 1.47 1.46
Christian Friedrich 4.58 4.53 0.303 0.301 1.40 1.39
Tim Hudson 4.03 3.98 0.303 0.300 1.34 1.33
Charlie Furbush 3.26 3.20 0.290 0.291 1.22 1.22
Ryan Dempster 4.19 4.14 0.295 0.294 1.34 1.33
Edinson Volquez 4.11 4.06 0.294 0.295 1.38 1.39
Tim Collins 3.41 3.35 0.289 0.293 1.32 1.33
Kyle Kendrick 4.54 4.49 0.297 0.293 1.36 1.35
Adam Wainwright 3.47 3.42 0.299 0.298 1.20 1.2
Ricky Romero 4.66 4.60 0.307 0.305 1.48 1.47
David Carpenter 3.94 3.88 0.294 0.293 1.38 1.38
Zach McAllister 4.40 4.34 0.294 0.292 1.34 1.33
David Phelps 4.14 4.08 0.295 0.294 1.33 1.32
Drew Hutchison 4.31 4.25 0.300 0.299 1.35 1.34
Marc Rzepczynski 3.42 3.36 0.303 0.301 1.32 1.32
Brett Myers 4.64 4.58 0.299 0.296 1.38 1.37
Sergio Santos 3.36 3.30 0.296 0.297 1.28 1.29
Clay Buchholz 4.42 4.36 0.300 0.298 1.39 1.38
Rubby de la Rosa 4.40 4.34 0.296 0.295 1.42 1.42
Sean Burnett 3.62 3.56 0.295 0.293 1.31 1.3
Felipe Paulino 3.74 3.68 0.295 0.295 1.30 1.29
Joba Chamberlain 3.38 3.32 0.297 0.296 1.25 1.25
Joe Kelly 4.29 4.23 0.300 0.297 1.41 1.4
Charlie Morton 4.23 4.17 0.304 0.301 1.39 1.38
Tim Lincecum 3.82 3.76 0.295 0.295 1.29 1.3
Junichi Tazawa 3.28 3.21 0.296 0.296 1.24 1.24
Jeremy Jeffress 4.42 4.36 0.298 0.297 1.53 1.53
Kevin Correia 4.91 4.85 0.300 0.296 1.44 1.41
Corey Kluber 4.32 4.25 0.296 0.295 1.38 1.38
Addison Reed 3.46 3.39 0.288 0.288 1.25 1.25
Erik Bedard 4.33 4.27 0.293 0.291 1.35 1.35
Jason Marquis 4.07 4.00 0.300 0.297 1.33 1.32
Matt Belisle 3.69 3.62 0.307 0.306 1.29 1.28
Zach Britton 4.31 4.24 0.301 0.298 1.41 1.4
Jason Motte 2.82 2.75 0.288 0.290 1.14 1.15
Hector Santiago 3.84 3.77 0.291 0.291 1.37 1.37
Boone Logan 3.45 3.38 0.291 0.293 1.28 1.29
Luis Marte 4.04 3.97 0.288 0.287 1.39 1.39
Josh Edgin 3.69 3.62 0.294 0.293 1.35 1.35
Clayton Richard 4.30 4.23 0.299 0.295 1.35 1.33
Joe Thatcher 3.35 3.28 0.289 0.289 1.26 1.26
C.J. Wilson 4.08 4.00 0.294 0.293 1.34 1.33
Edwin Jackson 3.96 3.88 0.295 0.293 1.29 1.28
Alex White 4.86 4.78 0.299 0.295 1.47 1.45
Tommy Hanson 4.14 4.06 0.285 0.284 1.31 1.3
Carter Capps 2.98 2.90 0.291 0.292 1.21 1.21
Michael Schwimer 3.72 3.64 0.287 0.288 1.31 1.31
Scott Diamond 4.49 4.41 0.305 0.300 1.39 1.37
Joel Hanrahan 3.50 3.42 0.293 0.293 1.31 1.31
Wade Miley 4.34 4.26 0.299 0.295 1.34 1.33
James McDonald 4.25 4.17 0.289 0.287 1.36 1.35
Matt Reynolds 3.70 3.61 0.295 0.294 1.31 1.3
Josh Lueke 3.97 3.88 0.291 0.289 1.35 1.34
Rhiner Cruz 4.65 4.56 0.291 0.289 1.53 1.53
Juan Nicasio 4.25 4.16 0.304 0.301 1.32 1.31
Anthony Swarzak 4.79 4.69 0.297 0.292 1.42 1.4
Steve Delabar 3.69 3.59 0.294 0.296 1.35 1.36
Jair Jurrjens 5.16 5.05 0.292 0.288 1.45 1.43

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Adjusting Regression Means

Strikeouts are up, walks are down and we’d changed by not changing at all.

As Tango recently pointed out, Steamer was looking a a little pessimistic this year. Really, we were just a little behind the times. The good thing about basing our regression levels on pitch data is that if pitchers start throwing harder (and they have), Steamer adjusts accordingly. The bad news is that if they throw harder AND they strikeout even more batters than would be expected by this increase (they’ve done this too) we have a somewhat more complicated adjustment to make.

Kregressionmeans

Our projections now attempt to take into account the league wide changes in strikeout and walk rates. The big thing you’ll notice is that ERA projections are down a bit. We’ve also added an adjustment based on the research done by Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman who found, among other things, that relievers’ strikeout rates drop off more steeply with age than starters’ strikeout rates do.

8 days till baseball… one major update to come.

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March Madness: Individual Player Pools

There’s an individual player pool at my wife’s office.  To help out, I matched seasonal PPG with Nate Silver’s projected bracket (to determine how many games each player is expected to play in) and multiplied these to project total tournament points for each player.

I didn’t make adjustments for conference difficulty, teams’ opponents or anything else.  I also didn’t include the 8 teams from “round 1″.  In short, I put little time or thought into these and absolutely zero basketball expertise… but they might still be better than nothing.  Here you go:

PLAYER
TEAM
PPG
Expected G
Exp Points
Russ Smith Louisville 18.1 4.45 80.6
Cody Zeller Indiana 16.9 4.36 73.7
Deshaun Thomas Ohio State 19.6 3.50 68.5
Kelly Olynyk Gonzaga 17.5 3.73 65.2
Ben McLemore Kansas 16.4 3.81 62.4
Victor Oladipo Indiana 13.6 4.36 59.3
Trey Burke Michigan 19.2 3.02 58.0
Mason Plumlee Duke 17.2 3.36 57.8
Seth Curry Duke 17.0 3.36 57.1
Elias Harris Gonzaga 14.9 3.73 55.5
Christian Watford Indiana 12.5 4.36 54.5
Jeff Withey Kansas 13.6 3.81 51.8
Erik Murphy Florida 12.7 3.93 49.8
Kenny Boynton Florida 12.3 3.93 48.3
Ryan Kelly Duke 14.3 3.36 48.1
Mike Rosario Florida 12.1 3.93 47.5
Otto Porter Georgetown 16.3 2.86 46.6
Tim Hardaway Jr. Michigan 14.8 3.02 44.7
Gorgui Dieng Louisville 10.0 4.45 44.5
Peyton Siva Louisville 10.0 4.45 44.5
Chane Behanan Louisville 9.9 4.45 44.1
Jordan Hulls Indiana 10.1 4.36 44.0
Shane Larkin Miami (Fla.) 14.2 3.09 43.9
Doug McDermott Creighton 23.1 1.90 43.9
Travis Releford Kansas 11.5 3.81 43.8
Kevin Pangos Gonzaga 11.5 3.73 42.9
Kenny Kadji Miami (Fla.) 13.5 3.09 41.8
Quinn Cook Duke 12.4 3.36 41.7
Patric Young Florida 10.6 3.93 41.6
Durand Scott Miami (Fla.) 13.4 3.09 41.5
Will Sheehey Indiana 9.4 4.36 41.0
C.J. Fair Syracuse 14.4 2.71 39.0
Keith Appling Michigan State 13.6 2.85 38.7
Rasheed Sulaimon Duke 11.5 3.36 38.7
Elijah Johnson Kansas 10.1 3.81 38.4
James Southerland Syracuse 13.9 2.71 37.7
Brandon Triche Syracuse 13.8 2.71 37.4
Gary Harris Michigan State 12.9 2.85 36.8
Kendall Williams New Mexico 13.5 2.72 36.7
Rodney McGruder Kansas State 15.7 2.30 36.1
Markel Starks Georgetown 12.5 2.86 35.7
Scottie Wilbekin Florida 9.1 3.93 35.7
Wayne Blackshear Louisville 8.0 4.45 35.6
Mark Lyons Arizona 14.8 2.39 35.3
Rotnei Clarke Butler 16.7 2.11 35.2
Nik Stauskas Michigan 11.5 3.02 34.7
Aaron Craft Ohio State 9.9 3.50 34.6
Greg Whittington Georgetown 12.1 2.86 34.6
Anthony Bennett UNLV 16.1 2.14 34.5
Gary Bell Jr. Gonzaga 9.2 3.73 34.3
Tony Snell New Mexico 12.6 2.72 34.2
Kevin Ferrell Indiana 7.8 4.36 34.0
Vander Blue Marquette 14.3 2.35 33.6
Lenzelle Smith Ohio State 9.6 3.50 33.6
Luke Hancock Louisville 7.5 4.45 33.4
Michael Carter-Williams Syracuse 12.0 2.71 32.5
Alex Kirk New Mexico 11.9 2.72 32.3
Glenn Robinson III Michigan 10.7 3.02 32.3
Treveon Graham Virginia Commonwealth 15.4 2.09 32.2
Dwayne Evans Saint Louis 13.6 2.36 32.1
Solomon Hill Arizona 13.4 2.39 32.0
Marcus Smart Oklahoma State 15.4 2.02 31.1
Markel Brown Oklahoma State 15.3 2.02 30.9
Mike Muscala Bucknell 19.0 1.59 30.2
Jamaal Franklin San Diego State 16.7 1.80 30.1
Juvonte Reddic Virginia Commonwealth 14.4 2.09 30.1
C.J. Leslie North Carolina State 14.9 2.01 29.9
Adreian Payne Michigan State 10.4 2.85 29.6
Brandon Paul Illinois 16.6 1.78 29.6
Ben Brust Wisconsin 11.4 2.56 29.1
Kevin Young Kansas 7.6 3.81 28.9
Jared Berggren Wisconsin 11.3 2.56 28.9
Le’Bryan Nash Oklahoma State 14.1 2.02 28.5
Trey McKinney Jones Miami (Fla.) 9.1 3.09 28.2
Nick Johnson Arizona 11.7 2.39 27.9
James Michael McAdoo North Carolina 14.5 1.91 27.7
Allen Crabbe California 18.7 1.47 27.5
Marshall Henderson Ole Miss 20.0 1.37 27.3
Spencer Dinwiddie Colorado 15.6 1.75 27.3
Reggie Bullock North Carolina 14.3 1.91 27.3
Derrick Nix Michigan State 9.5 2.85 27.1
Davante Gardner Marquette 11.5 2.35 27.0
Angel Rodriguez Kansas State 11.7 2.30 26.9
Sam Dower Gonzaga 7.2 3.73 26.8
Sean Kilpatrick Cincinnati 16.9 1.59 26.8
Branden Dawson Michigan State 9.4 2.85 26.8
Ryan Evans Wisconsin 10.4 2.56 26.6
Laurence Bowers Missouri 14.4 1.85 26.6
P.J. Hairston North Carolina 13.8 1.91 26.3
LaQuinton Ross Ohio State 7.5 3.50 26.2
Shabazz Muhammad UCLA 17.8 1.47 26.2
Khalif Wyatt Temple 19.8 1.32 26.1
Troy Daniels Virginia Commonwealth 12.5 2.09 26.1
Cameron Bairstow New Mexico 9.6 2.72 26.1
Joe Jackson Memphis 13.6 1.92 26.1
Sam Thompson Ohio State 7.4 3.50 25.9
Andre Hollins Minnesota 13.9 1.86 25.9
D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera Georgetown 9.0 2.86 25.7
Ian Clark Belmont 18.1 1.42 25.6
Nate Wolters South Dakota State 22.7 1.13 25.5
Richard Howell North Carolina State 12.7 2.01 25.5
Scott Wood North Carolina State 12.7 2.01 25.5
Montrezl Harrell Louisville 5.7 4.45 25.4
Romero Osby Oklahoma 15.8 1.60 25.3
Jerian Grant Notre Dame 13.4 1.87 25.1
T.J. Warren North Carolina State 12.4 2.01 24.9
Lamont Jones Iona 23.0 1.08 24.8
Casey Prather Florida 6.3 3.93 24.7
Jack Cooley Notre Dame 13.1 1.87 24.5
Chase Tapley San Diego State 13.5 1.80 24.3
Sam Dekker Wisconsin 9.5 2.56 24.3
Lorenzo Brown North Carolina State 12.1 2.01 24.3
Cody Ellis Saint Louis 10.3 2.36 24.3
Mike McCall Jr. Saint Louis 10.0 2.36 23.6
Kwamain Mitchell Saint Louis 10.0 2.36 23.6
Andrew Smith Butler 11.1 2.11 23.4
Jake Cohen Davidson 14.8 1.58 23.4
Tray Woodall Pittsburgh 11.8 1.98 23.3
Michael Frazier II Florida 5.9 3.93 23.2
Will Clyburn Iowa State 15.0 1.53 23.0
Justin Cobbs California 15.5 1.47 22.8
Adonis Thomas Memphis 11.9 1.92 22.8
Reggie Johnson Miami (Fla.) 7.3 3.09 22.6
Jordan Adams UCLA 15.3 1.47 22.5
Anthony Marshall UNLV 10.5 2.14 22.5
Rob Brandenberg Virginia Commonwealth 10.6 2.09 22.1
D.J. Richardson Illinois 12.4 1.78 22.1
Jamil Wilson Marquette 9.4 2.35 22.1
Perry Ellis Kansas 5.8 3.81 22.1
Jordair Jett Saint Louis 9.3 2.36 21.9
De’Mon Brooks Davidson 13.8 1.58 21.8
Jabari Brown Oregon 13.7 1.59 21.7
Askia Booker Colorado 12.4 1.75 21.7
Bryce Dejean-Jones UNLV 10.1 2.14 21.6
Katin Reinhardt UNLV 10.1 2.14 21.6
Will Yeguete Florida 5.5 3.93 21.6
Phil Pressey Missouri 11.6 1.85 21.4
Eric Atkins Notre Dame 11.4 1.87 21.3
Roosevelt Jones Butler 10.1 2.11 21.3
Colton Iverson Colorado State 14.7 1.43 21.0
Phil Forte Oklahoma State 10.4 2.02 21.0
Naadir Tharpe Kansas 5.5 3.81 20.9
Kellen Dunham Butler 9.9 2.11 20.9
Khyle Marshall Butler 9.9 2.11 20.9
Nate Lubick Georgetown 7.2 2.86 20.6
Cleanthony Early Wichita State 13.6 1.51 20.6
Chris Crawford Memphis 10.7 1.92 20.5
Przemek Karnowski Gonzaga 5.5 3.73 20.5
Keion Bell Missouri 11.1 1.85 20.5
Alex Oriakhi Missouri 11.1 1.85 20.5
Junior Cadougan Marquette 8.7 2.35 20.4
Julian Gamble Miami (Fla.) 6.6 3.09 20.4
Tyrus McGee Iowa State 13.2 1.53 20.2
Geron Johnson Memphis 10.5 1.92 20.1
Cashmere Wright Cincinnati 12.6 1.59 20.0
Ryan Broekhoff Valparaiso 15.9 1.25 19.9
Cameron Ayers Bucknell 12.5 1.59 19.9
Kevin Parrom Arizona 8.3 2.39 19.8
Lamar Patterson Pittsburgh 10.0 1.98 19.8
Austin Hollins Minnesota 10.6 1.86 19.7
Murphy Holloway Ole Miss 14.4 1.37 19.7
Kevin Ware Louisville 4.4 4.45 19.6
Hugh Greenwood New Mexico 7.2 2.72 19.6
Kerron Johnson Belmont 13.7 1.42 19.4
Talib Zanna Pittsburgh 9.8 1.98 19.4
Carl Hall Wichita State 12.8 1.51 19.4
Rodney Williams Jr. Minnesota 10.3 1.86 19.2
Andre Roberson Colorado 10.9 1.75 19.1
Wesley Saunders Harvard 16.5 1.16 19.1
Earnest Ross Missouri 10.3 1.85 19.0
Tracy Abrams Illinois 10.6 1.78 18.9
Steven Pledger Oklahoma 11.8 1.60 18.9
Mitch McGary Michigan 6.2 3.02 18.7
Shane Southwell Kansas State 8.1 2.30 18.6
Trevor Mbakwe Minnesota 10.0 1.86 18.6
Evan Ravenel Ohio State 5.3 3.50 18.5
Daniel Mullings New Mexico State 14.0 1.32 18.5
E.J. Singler Oregon 11.6 1.59 18.4
Georges Niang Iowa State 12.0 1.53 18.4
Brandon Ashley Arizona 7.7 2.39 18.4
Dorian Green Colorado State 12.8 1.43 18.3
Gregory Echenique Creighton 9.6 1.90 18.2
Thomas Gipson Kansas State 7.9 2.30 18.2
Wes Eikmeier Colorado State 12.7 1.43 18.2
JayVaughn Pinkston Villanova 13.1 1.39 18.1
Josh Scott Colorado 10.3 1.75 18.0
Rion Brown Miami (Fla.) 5.8 3.09 17.9
JaQuon Parker Cincinnati 11.3 1.59 17.9
Sean Armand Iona 16.6 1.08 17.9
Remy Abell Indiana 4.1 4.36 17.9
Trevor Noack Belmont 12.5 1.42 17.7
Zeke Marshall Akron 13.0 1.36 17.7
Xavier Thames San Diego State 9.8 1.80 17.7
Bryson Johnson Bucknell 11.1 1.59 17.6
Dundrecous Nelson Ole Miss 12.8 1.37 17.5
Carlos Emory Oregon 11.0 1.59 17.5
Sherwood Brown Florida Gulf Coast 15.3 1.14 17.4
Traevon Jackson Wisconsin 6.8 2.56 17.4
Will Spradling Kansas State 7.5 2.30 17.3
Rob Loe Saint Louis 7.3 2.36 17.2
Melvin Ejim Iowa State 11.2 1.53 17.2
Jean-Paul Olukemi Oklahoma State 8.5 2.02 17.2
Mikael Hopkins Georgetown 6.0 2.86 17.1
Damyean Dotson Oregon 10.8 1.59 17.1
Shannon Scott Ohio State 4.9 3.50 17.1
Rodney Purvis North Carolina State 8.5 2.01 17.1
Mathias Ward Montana 14.8 1.15 17.0
Pat Connaughton Notre Dame 9.0 1.87 16.8
Kareem Jamar Montana 14.5 1.15 16.7
Trent Lockett Marquette 7.1 2.35 16.7
Mike Bruesewitz Wisconsin 6.5 2.56 16.6
Ryan Arcidiacono Villanova 12.0 1.39 16.6
Travis Wear UCLA 11.2 1.47 16.5
Joe Willman Bucknell 10.3 1.59 16.4
Grant Gibbs Creighton 8.6 1.90 16.3
Jabril Trawick Georgetown 5.7 2.86 16.3
Derick Beltran Southern 15.9 1.02 16.2
Joe Coleman Minnesota 8.7 1.86 16.2
Amath M’Baye Oklahoma 10.1 1.60 16.2
Malcolm Miller Southern 15.8 1.02 16.1
J.J. Moore Pittsburgh 8.1 1.98 16.0
Will Cherry Montana 13.9 1.15 16.0
Bernard Thompson Florida Gulf Coast 14.0 1.14 16.0
Kevin Van Wijk Valparaiso 12.7 1.25 15.9
Greg Smith Colorado State 11.1 1.43 15.9
Mike Black Albany 14.9 1.07 15.9
Xavier Johnson Colorado 9.0 1.75 15.8
Malcolm Armstead Wichita State 10.4 1.51 15.7
T.J. Price Western Kentucky 15.3 1.02 15.6
Scootie Randall Temple 11.8 1.32 15.6
Darrun Hilliard Villanova 11.2 1.39 15.5
Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona 6.5 2.39 15.5
Nik Cochran Davidson 9.8 1.58 15.5
Demetrius Treadwell Akron 11.4 1.36 15.5
Bishop Daniels Miami (Fla.) 5.0 3.09 15.5
Dexter Strickland North Carolina 8.1 1.91 15.5
Bandja Sy New Mexico State 11.7 1.32 15.4
Khem Birch UNLV 7.2 2.14 15.4
Mike Moser UNLV 7.2 2.14 15.4
Jordan Morgan Michigan 5.1 3.02 15.4
Tarik Black Memphis 8.0 1.92 15.3
Korie Lucious Iowa State 9.9 1.53 15.2
DeQuan Hicks Northwestern State 14.1 1.07 15.1
Tony Woods Oregon 9.5 1.59 15.1
Darius Theus Virginia Commonwealth 7.2 2.09 15.0
Shaq Goodwin Memphis 7.8 1.92 15.0
Siyani Chambers Harvard 12.9 1.16 14.9
J.J. Mann Belmont 10.5 1.42 14.9
Melvin Johnson Virginia Commonwealth 7.1 2.09 14.8
Scott Martin Notre Dame 7.9 1.87 14.8
Arsalan Kazemi Oregon 9.3 1.59 14.8
Marcus Paige North Carolina 7.7 1.91 14.7
Ethan Wragge Creighton 7.7 1.90 14.6
D.J. Stephens Memphis 7.6 1.92 14.6
Todd Mayo Marquette 6.2 2.35 14.6
Chris Czerapowicz Davidson 9.2 1.58 14.5
Denzel Valentine Michigan State 5.1 2.85 14.5
Amile Jefferson Duke 4.3 3.36 14.5
Kyle Anderson UCLA 9.8 1.47 14.4
Rakeem Christmas Syracuse 5.3 2.71 14.4
Leslie McDonald North Carolina 7.5 1.91 14.3
Chris Babb Iowa State 9.3 1.53 14.3
Tyrone Watson New Mexico State 10.8 1.32 14.2
David Laury Iona 13.1 1.08 14.1
Austin Chatman Creighton 7.4 1.90 14.1
Jordan Dykstra South Dakota State 12.5 1.13 14.1
Alex Abreu Akron 10.3 1.36 14.0
Michael Cobbins Oklahoma State 6.9 2.02 13.9
Chase Fieler Florida Gulf Coast 12.2 1.14 13.9
Steven Adams Pittsburgh 7.0 1.98 13.8
Blake Jenkins Belmont 9.7 1.42 13.7
Travis Trice Michigan State 4.8 2.85 13.7
Demetrius Walker New Mexico 5.0 2.72 13.6
Joseph Bertrand Illinois 7.6 1.78 13.5
Dominic Artis Oregon 8.5 1.59 13.5
Sim Bhullar New Mexico State 10.2 1.32 13.4
Mouphtaou Yarou Villanova 9.7 1.39 13.4
David Stockton Gonzaga 3.6 3.73 13.4
Shamir Davis Northwestern State 12.5 1.07 13.4
JJ O’Brien San Diego State 7.4 1.80 13.3
Josh Jones Creighton 7.0 1.90 13.3
Garrick Sherman Notre Dame 7.1 1.87 13.3
Anthony Lee Temple 10.0 1.32 13.2
Nick Harney Akron 9.7 1.36 13.2
George Fant Western Kentucky 12.9 1.02 13.2
Jeremy Hollowell Indiana 3.0 4.36 13.1
Reginald Buckner Ole Miss 9.5 1.37 13.0
James Hulbin Northwestern State 12.1 1.07 13.0
Amir Williams Ohio State 3.7 3.50 12.9
Jacob Iati Albany 12.1 1.07 12.9
Lorenzo McCloud Pacific 11.4 1.13 12.9
JP Kuhlman Davidson 8.1 1.58 12.8
Buddy Hield Oklahoma 8.0 1.60 12.8
Tyler Griffey Illinois 7.1 1.78 12.7
Grant Jerrett Arizona 5.3 2.39 12.6
Demetric Williams Wichita State 8.3 1.51 12.5
Chad Adams New Mexico 4.6 2.72 12.5
Pierce Hornung Colorado State 8.7 1.43 12.4
Richard Solomon California 8.4 1.47 12.4
Tyler Kalinoski Davidson 7.8 1.58 12.3

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Updated Steamer Projections

Our updated projections include three important additions:

*Hiroyuki Nakajima, Kyuji Fujikawa and Hyun-Jin Ryu have been added.

*Pitcher ERAs now take into account our team defense projections.  This will help the pitchers on the Angels among others and hurt the pitchers on the Blue Jays and Rockies.  (Note: the team defense projections differ between Razzball and Fangraphs since the projected playing time differs.)  Thanks to the guys behind them, Jered Weaver’s ERA falls from 4.10 to 3.99 while R.A. Dickey’s moves in the opposite direction, from 3.98 to 4.07.

*Thanks to the work of Clint Hulsey who compiled fastball velocities based on scouting reports on his I R Fast blog, Minor League fastball velocities have been added for 489 minor league pitchers.  Bruce Rondon gets a major boost in his strikeout rate and his ERA falls all the way from 5.34 to 4.08.  Gerrit Cole goes from 4.47 to 4.17.

We’ll keep updating playing time bit by bit and should have one last significant update that will come immediately before the season starts (we might even get to see Jered Weaver’s ERA fall once again).  During the season, our projections will be updated on Razzball and Fangraphs.  If you have a draft coming up, you can get discounted Rotochamp software through the ad on our Downloads page and send some money back our way in the process.

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Oh, the Dreaded Bias!

Two days ago, Dave Cameron wrote about the players Steamer and Zips disagree on the most, showing that Steamer is a little down on Jurickson Profar, Bryce Harper and a few others. In the comments, mattybobo pointed out that Steamer has atypically low BABIP projections for players with no MLB experience and that this looked like a mistake.

Well, I did some checking and, um, he’s right.

More specifically, Steamer was adjusting down the rate at which hitters get singles too aggressively when forming Major League Equivalencies (using what should be the adjustment factor for *all hits* rather than the adjustment factor for singles). Anyway, after making some adjustments, I checked our year to year MLE BABIPs for batters who moved up a level, batters who repeated a level and batters who made the jump the majors and can now feel comfortable standing behind our projections.

Players whose projections were based largely on minor league stats, of course, see the most benefit. Profar jumps up from .232/.301/.370 to .247/.315/.386. Bryce Harper’s move is less drastic, from .257/.329/.450 to .263/.335/.457. Both projections are still notably pessimistic compared to the other forecasters on Fangraphs (ZiPS, Oliver, James and the Fans), and this is always cause to be wary, but the gap has narrowed somewhat.

One last note, our adjusted system will still, to some extent, under-project players who go from the minors to a full MLB season. Historically, players who had more than 300 MLB PA following a season with 300 minor league PA’s over performed their Steamer BABIP MLEs. I’m okay with that. A Jurickson Profar who gets close to a full season’s worth of PA is more likely to be a Profar who has exceeded expectations than one who has fallen short.  This gets tricky though and it’s something we’ll need to revisit in the future with a little more data on hand.

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