There have been some great articles on how to use regression towards the mean and (roughly equivalently, I’d claim) Bayes Theorem to make projections but in case they left you still wanting more, here are some interactive slides that demonstrate the concept. For a full discussion of the mathematics, Kincaid has you covered. Anyway, here you go:

**Using Bayes Theorem to Make a Projection
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eggs withRenting a Projection Screen