Google Docs for Download

The final pre-season (sort of — really, as of March 30th, 2014) projections are available here where they’ll remain untouched for posterity.  There’s also a zip file in there that has our split hitter projections (v. LHP and v. RHP projections, that is).  Starting soon you’ll be able to find in-season updates on Fangraphs and Razzball.  Razzball creates it’s own playing time (and save, hold and QS projections) and also re-combines our split hitter lines to provide slightly different rate stats than you’ll see on Fangraphs.

Comments (19)

  1. Varanasi

    Great! Thanks for the update.

    Is there a way to tell when the ROS stats on Fangraphs have changed? Do you do them on a regular schedule?

    Thanks again.

    Reply
    1. J. Cross (Post author)

      Once they start updating (which will be soon, I think), they’ll update every night at 3 am.

      Reply
      1. Varanasi

        Jared:

        Thanks Jared. Will you continue to post them to google drive, too?

        Reply
        1. J. Cross (Post author)

          You’re welcome. The google drive is just a one time pre-season thing.

          Reply
  2. Varanasi

    Sorry to bug you, but any idea when Fangraphs will start posting the ROS and update files?

    Reply
    1. J. Cross (Post author)
  3. Varanasi

    Thanks! And thanks for all your work.

    Reply
  4. Anthony

    I was wondering a lot of the pitchers pre-season had a way higher WAR projection on FanGraphs than what they do know after 1 or 2 starts, are these updated WAR projections accurate now or should I way until pitchers have a couple more starts in them to really take an updated WAR projection??

    Reply
    1. J. Cross (Post author)

      Anthony, can you give me a couple of examples? I noticed that something is funny with Robbie Erlin right now. I don’t do the WAR calculations but I’ll ask and find out.

      Reply
      1. Anthony

        Yeah Max Scherzer had a preseason WAR of 4.3 but know after one start he is down to 3 (in which he was pretty dominate), for the updated WAR on Fangraphs. Danny Salazar had a preseason WAR of 3.3 and now for the update he has a 1.9 WAR for the year just after one bad start. Just wondering if the numbers seem to move up towards the preseason projected WAR after a handful of starts than after just one start.

        Reply
        1. J. Cross (Post author)

          Interesting.

          Scherzer (pre-season) was projected for a 3.29 ERA in 192 IP and now he’s projected for a 3.29 ERA in 186 innings.

          Salazar’s projection on the other hand has changed a bit from a 3.35 projected ERA to a 3.52 ERA and it’s because his velocity is down from last year

          Reply
          1. Anthony

            Sounds good, I know adjusted league ERA, plus all that other good stuff with projected ERA spits out a projected WAR, was just curious if I should wait for a handful of starts before the Updated WAR’s are a good indicator for the rest of the season

  5. Jordan

    Do the ROS projections change significantly based on in-season performance, lineup order and playing time etc.?

    Reply
  6. Varanasi

    Hi Jared:

    I don’t know whether you are interested, but here are some pitchers who have gotten playing time and who will get more that are not among the ROS predictions. (Bell is on the 15-day DL.)

    Trevor Bell
    Kyle Farnsworth
    Chen-Chang Lee
    Gus Schlosser
    Blake Treinen

    Thanks again from your work!

    Reply
    1. Varanasi

      And . . .

      Yoslan Herrera

      Reply
      1. J. Cross (Post author)

        Thanks. I’m mostly not up on this stuff and leave the depth charts to the FG crew… but maybe I should make a little query to catch stuff like this.

        Reply
  7. Varanasi

    And Kyle Farnsworth, the Mets current closer.

    Reply
    1. Varanasi

      Oops. Sorry. I mentioned him above.

      Reply
  8. Dennis

    How would you neutralize your projections from the park factors? Simply divide your projection by the Fan Graphs park factors (that has already been halved)?

    Reply

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