Downloads

2014 Projections:

The final pre-season (sort of — really, as of March 30th, 2014) projections are available here.  There’s also a zip file in there that has our splits hitter projections (v. LHP and v. RHP projections, that is).  Starting soon you’ll be able to find in-season updates on Fangraphs and Razzball.  Razzball creates it’s own playing time (and save, hold and QS projections) and also re-combines our split hitter lines to provide slightly different rate stats than you’ll see on Fangraphs.

2013 Projections:

2012 Projections:

  • [download id="7"] — Updated March 20th, 2012
  • [download id="6"] — Updated March 20th, 2012

lastplayerpicked files — All updated March 21th, 2012

  • [download id="11"]
  • [download id="12"]
  • [download id="13"]
  • [download id="14"]

 

 

Old Projections:

  • [download id="4"]
  • [download id="5"]
  • [download id="1"]
  • [download id="2"]

125 thoughts on “Downloads”

  1. Thanks a lot for doing these. It’s always impressive and cool to see the work that people do for free (and how it’s often way better than the stuff that others try to sell; see CHONE kicking PECOTA’s butt for the past three years).

    1. Yeah, because why should somebody expect to make a living off their hard work when so many people would rather not pay for things of value?

  2. Help a newbie to your projections, please: What does IFF% (infield fly percentage?) stand for and why does GB%, FB% and IFF% sum to 81% for all pitchers?

    1. Joe,

      IFF% does indeed mean Infield Fly Percentage. Also, the reason those 3 statistics(IFF, GB and FB) sum to 81% is because we gave all of our pitchers a 19% Line Drive Percentage.

  3. Thanks for doing this, it’s always nice to pull projections that are based on statistics, and not someone’s gut feeling. Just a note, I noticed that Ryan Vogelsong isn’t on the spreadsheet… oversight?

  4. Yes, an oversight, we pulled him from the data pool after his disappeared for a few years and neglected to add him back in. I want to get him, Darvish and probably a handful of others in the mix before the season starts.

  5. The updated pitching projections are in .xlsx format so those of us working with an older version of Excel can’t download it. Is it possible to save it in the old format?

  6. New to your system. I’m looking at the projections for Pirates pitchers. Can I just slide AJ Burnett over, or are there park/league factors that will effect that data?

    1. When I move Burnett to Pittsburg (we’ll have this updated on the next version) his ERA falls just a bit from 4.21 to 4.16 but he also falls from 8.6 wins to 7.5 wins (due to less run support) so he actually falls from being a $1.70 player to a $0.91 player.

      Thanks for the note, that reminds me to see who else has switched teams since we made our player pool

  7. #390 – not with SEA, signed with LAD
    #393 – not with SEA, signed with NYY
    #546 – not with SEA, playing in Korea
    #993 – not with SEA, FA

  8. hey fellas. Sent here from the good guys at Razzball. Like your rankings. One quick question related to Michael Pineda… Why the IP projection of 160 (which causes his K’s to fall to 148). Kid threw 170 innings last year, should be on track for a full schedule… Are you assuming the Yankees limit his innings? Or are you foreseeing an injury?

    1. Thanks for the note.

      I do think that Pineda is a relatively high injury risk this year but off hand I don’t think that should drop his projected IP to 160 unless the Yankees are limiting his innings. We’re going to do an analysis of playing time projections and injury risk in a couple of weeks and then work on fine tuning our playing time projections based on that.

    1. Thanks.

      We will be releasing an updated version soon with changes for injuries, role reassignments and trades so in that version we will have Myers projected in his new role.

  9. Don’t know if you’re planning on adding it for an update, but just wanted to let you know that the hitters spreadsheet is missing 5×5 dollar values.

    Otherwise, the projections look great so far!

  10. Noted. We just need to go through and determine the replacement levels by position. Might have to do this for a couple of formats since the number of active catchers, outfielder, MIF etc would make a difference.

  11. Thanks again for the CSV files for LPP. From reading through the site it sounds like you have at least one big update in the works to adjust for playing time and maybe adding in some missing players and what not. When are you targeting to have that update ready? I’m just curious as I prepare for my draft.

    Thanks again and keep up the great work.

    1. We want to get it done ASAP but Dash and Peter are busy with papers and I have papers to grade… so, hopefully I’ll be posting something on Sunday but I can’t promise that it won’t take longer.

  12. Love the site, thank you for your work.

    I tried uploading the CSV files for the LPP tool, and am getting “errors”. Can you please look into this?

  13. hey guys, putting together my draft software for this weekends draft and just want to make sure i don’t do double work. Will this be the final update before this weekend?

      1. gotcha, thanks! I think the majority of drafts across the country will be this weekend.

        I’ll use this version though. thanks again

  14. These projections are excellent. Thank you kindly for giving these to us.
    Like Talented Mr. Dope Man above, I have my draft this Saturday, and wanted to check and see if there will be any updates between now and then. Just want to make sure I have the latest information.
    Thanks again!

    1. Thanks, Kyle!

      Sorry for the slow response. I’ve been distracted. No more updates in the short term, unfortunately but I think we might put out an All-Star Break update in anticipation of more consistent updates next year.

  15. Some of these look way out of whack. I jumped straight to the Blue Jays starting rotation to see how things look, and none of the 5 guys are projected under a 4 ERA. Morrow was projected by Steamer to have a 3.63 ERA last season. He went out and had a career year with a 2.96 ERA and now his 2013 projection is 4.04. Same goes for Josh Johnson. RA Dickey has had a 2.95 ERA over the past 3 seasons and is projected to be above 4. I know these are objective and Steamer has never really liked knuckeballers, but has something changed from prior seasons?

    1. I’m just mad that you guys have Reyes and Dickey now.

      Dickey would have been projected to have a 3.69 ERA with the Mets. That said, I think it’s fair to question how Steamer handles knuckleballers at this point. Definitely something we want to work on more. We don’t use fastball velocity for knuckleballs and instead just regress them to the mean of other knuckleballers. Still, we basically assume that they are like other pitchers in terms of how their ERA depends on K’s, BB’s, GB% etc. and I know that’s not quite right. Steamer definitely doesn’t know whether knuckleballers are more effective in domes or anything like that.

      Steamer had high expectations for Morrow last year and he had a career year in terms of ERA but it wasn’t a career year in terms of peripherals – his strikeout rate was way down and he’s unlikely to repeat his .252 BABIP. Josh Johnson also fell off in K% and his fastball velocity is down from his best days. The Blue Jays, as a team, are projected to improve from a 4.64 ERA last year to a 4.12 ERA in 2013 so that’s not too shabby. We’ve made a couple of tweaks to the formulas (as we do every year) but, by and large, I don’t think anything has changed.

      1. Makes sense. I was just hoping to see a couple guys with a 3 at the front of their ERA! I realize a lot of that is due to the park they play in and the teams they play against, too.

        Thanks for the projections, I always look forward to these.

    1. Sorry if I am missing this – but is the expected Position for each player available anywhere? Not seeing it in the Razzball spreadsheet. Thanks.

  16. Thanks J.

    Have you guys discussed how you’re doing playing time projections this year? Has it changed from prior years?

    1. Closer Guru+Price Fan Guide,

      Razzball is doing the playing time projections and the saves/holds/QS projections that you see in this download file and on Razzball so that’s one change. Rudy Gamble (of Razzball) simply knows the MLB depth charts much better than I do at this point and can do a much better job of this stuff than I could. I’m guessing that the saves are 30/10 simply b/c at this point in the pre-season no much precision is warranted but I should defer to him on that.

      1. Are the playing time projections from Razzball the reason why these stats differ from what is posted on Fangraphs, or are there other differences?

        Thanks very much!!!!

  17. First, a big thank you for the work you do. The STEAMER projections have quickly become one of my favorites.

    Second, any insight you can offer into the Pujols projection? After 4 consecutive years of declining walk rates and ISO, I’m quite surprised to see both forecast to tick back up in his age-33 season (never mind have the 2nd highest HR projection of anyone in baseball!).

    1. Thanks!

      I can tell you that we have Busch Stadium II reducing RHB HR’s by 8% and Angel Stadium increasing them by 1.5% (granted, those factors should matter less for Pujols than other guys). But I think the real story is that we’re not really projecting a trend. We’re weighing seasons further back less, but we’re not looking at the decline and therefore projecting further decline. Those higher HR totals in the past are helping him.

  18. Anyone else notice that the stated WHIP in the Razzball sheet is different from a calculation of (BB+H)/IP? Looks like the reported number is greater than the calculated number by 8% or so – seemingly less for groundballers (eg, Brad Ziegler) and more for flyball types (eg, Jared Weaver, Phil Hughes).

    Can someone please fill me in on what I am missing here? Thanks.

    1. Ah! Good catch. That H column is showing non-HR hits. So, this hits column should be higher than it is (and, as you point out, this difference will be greater for flyball/HR pitchers than groundball pitchers). The WHIPs and everything else should be okay, that column is just misnamed. I’ll put up an updated sheet.

  19. The spreadsheet is great, and always very helpful; I’m working on a tweak right now.

    I’m trying to devise solid predictive formulas for holds and Quality Starts for my league; any suggestions?

    1. I guess my question should be, can the file be updated to reflect the holds and quality start predictions that Rudy has added on Razzball?

      1. Hi Ben,

        The QS and holds are Razzball’s and I can’t make them available for download here. Is there a category you need that isn’t in one of the point shares formulas on Razzball?

        1. No, it’s just QS and Holds. For now, I’ve made QS based on a rudimentary combination of GS, ERA and IP/GS, while I’m calculating holds based on games and Z-values for K/9, WHIP, and K/BB (I’ve also zeroed out any pitcher for whom G=GS or for whom SV>20). I’m hopeful it’ll be good, at least until (unless?) Razzball allows you to include their holds/QS projections in your downloads.

          Thanks again for the amazing work!

  20. This is great stuff again. However, I’d like to see holds added to the downloadable spreadsheet. Also would be nice if you could come up with reasonable projections for , CGs and SHOs. Those stats would be very helpful for us point leaguers. Thanks again for doing such a bang up job though.

  21. Question #2- Why does Josh Rutledge have so many AB when he has Tulo batting in front of him? Is he used alot? I’m not too familiar with the way the Rockies play.

    1. Love the idea if it means getting the absolute latest update before I draft. It’d be great if each update could be dated/timed so we know if we have the latest. Thanks for these!

        1. Could u give us notice each time you update? I take your projections and play with them for my league’s settings, so its important to know whether I must reformat or not.

        2. When clicking on these links the CSV file seems to be named with todays date. Does that mean there was an update today or will the current date always appear in the file name?

  22. You put spaces in front of all the names! Why, why would you do that! I shouldn’t need to come up with =RIGHT(C2&D2,LEN(C2)+LEN(D2)-1) even if I’m incredibly proud of being able to.

    1. Heh, sorry Byron!

      I didn’t do it on purpose – there’s a database exporting to a csv file and there was a space in the php code… basically I don’t know what I’m doing! That said, I think I fixed it.

    2. FYI, if you have a column of data in Excel and you know every single cell has just one space in front of it you want to get rid of, you can highlight the data, use Data > Text to Column > Fixed Width. Then set your columns to mark that single character (space) as one column, and the rest as the second column. Then select to “skip” importing the first column, and hit OK.

      1. Thanks, but it sounds easier to just do =RIGHT(CELL,LEN(CELL)-1)). My formula up top was only that complicated because I was also uniting the first and last name fields simultaneously.

  23. We are using these in school for Excel learning, I figured if it was something interesting the kids would stay focused. Is this data for preseason 2013? I thought it was until I saw 43 home runs for one player and a lot of innings pitched for the preseason.

    Thanks for all you do.

  24. Billy Hamilton is projected for 55 SB attempts in 202 PA. Considering you only project him to get on base 63 times, something is amiss. I only point it out in case it’s a systemic error that applies to other players in less obvious ways.

    1. Hi Brian,

      I’m seeing 14.6 in 70 PA on this site (Razzball playing time) and 44 SB in 207 PA on Fangraphs. It’s possible that one of those PA numbers just changed – I haven’t been keeping track of it – but the SB/PA ratio should basically stay the same. Anyway, I agree that it’s too high and I’ll look into what’s happening here.

      1. I’m using the ones from Fangraphs. And yes, it was 207 not 202.

        There are some other odd playing time projections from the Fangraphs set (Ramsey, Lindor, Buxton and Naquin all projected for 555 PA, amongst other oddities).

        So, are the Razzball playing time projections the ones you recommend using? What is the difference between the Razzball and Fangraphs variations of the projections/playing time?

        1. The Fangraphs playing time is from Fangraphs Fans and adjusted down to account for Fan optimism. The Razzball playing time (here) is from Rudy Gamble of Razzball. The Fangraphs fans have done pretty decently in the past but you’ll get the occasional crazy projection so using Rudy’s projections is safer, I’d think, and I expect them to be good. We’ll know at the end of the year, I guess.

          1. Ah, OK. Makes sense. It includes guys with less than 8 projections, which accounts for the weird ones like Buxton. I think I’ll use Razzball playing time when there are less than 8 fan votes. Thanks! Excellent work, as usual.

  25. Is there a way to organize your projections into rankings? Is there something I can adjust in the excel file to have these projections rank players for 5×5 leagues?

  26. Hi,

    I was wondering if you know whether or not your projections will be updated on Fan Graphs in the next few days?

    Thanks,
    Phil

    1. They are updated with the new Mariners fence adjustment as of today and they’ll have one more (last, I believe) adjustment that should appear tomorrow a little after 9 am.

  27. Hello

    I just wanted to thank you for taking your time to help us out with projections. My fantasy auction is a couple days away, and I was just finishing my projections using your stats, when I noticed something. Overall, your projections for SB’s seems to be very low. I compared them to other projections systems as well as last years real results and noticed that they are extremely low. I kinda doubt that this indicates a problem, but I am curious why your stolen bases are being projected so low this year.

    Thanks

    1. Thanks, David.

      I have some ideas about things we could do to improve our SB model and reason that regressing young players to the league mean might not be the best way to go but rather than speculate here I think I’d better investigate this more fully and report back when I have a better grasp on this.

  28. Curious if you are going to post a summary of your off-season research and outline (roughly) the changes to the Steamer algo for this season. Thanks!

  29. I noticed that last year you had projections for fly ball rates and ground ball rates. Do you not project these anymore, or are they just not on the fangraphs site?

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