2013 Projections:

2012 Projections:

lastplayerpicked files — All updated March 21th, 2012

Old Projections:

1. David says:

Thanks a lot for doing these. It’s always impressive and cool to see the work that people do for free (and how it’s often way better than the stuff that others try to sell; see CHONE kicking PECOTA’s butt for the past three years).

• SpankyMcGovern says:

Yeah, because why should somebody expect to make a living off their hard work when so many people would rather not pay for things of value?

2. Joe Peta says:

Help a newbie to your projections, please: What does IFF% (infield fly percentage?) stand for and why does GB%, FB% and IFF% sum to 81% for all pitchers?

• Peter Rosenbloom says:

Joe,

IFF% does indeed mean Infield Fly Percentage. Also, the reason those 3 statistics(IFF, GB and FB) sum to 81% is because we gave all of our pitchers a 19% Line Drive Percentage.

• Joe P says:

Peter,

Thanks so much for the explanation.

3. Alex says:

Thanks for doing this, it’s always nice to pull projections that are based on statistics, and not someone’s gut feeling. Just a note, I noticed that Ryan Vogelsong isn’t on the spreadsheet… oversight?

4. J. Cross says:

Yes, an oversight, we pulled him from the data pool after his disappeared for a few years and neglected to add him back in. I want to get him, Darvish and probably a handful of others in the mix before the season starts.

5. Jason says:

Will you be publishing hitter projections for 2012 too?

• Dash says:

Yes we will. They should be out by the end of the week so stay tuned!

6. Joe P says:

The updated pitching projections are in .xlsx format so those of us working with an older version of Excel can’t download it. Is it possible to save it in the old format?

• J. Cross says:

Yes, it’s an .xls again now. Thanks for the note.

7. Kyle Boddy says:

The 2012 spreadsheet seems to be down. Will it be up again soon?

• Kyle Boddy says:

Ah, never mind. It was during the xls switchover.

8. Steve says:

New to your system. I’m looking at the projections for Pirates pitchers. Can I just slide AJ Burnett over, or are there park/league factors that will effect that data?

• J. Cross says:

When I move Burnett to Pittsburg (we’ll have this updated on the next version) his ERA falls just a bit from 4.21 to 4.16 but he also falls from 8.6 wins to 7.5 wins (due to less run support) so he actually falls from being a $1.70 player to a$0.91 player.

Thanks for the note, that reminds me to see who else has switched teams since we made our player pool

9. Bat571 says:

#390 – not with SEA, signed with LAD
#393 – not with SEA, signed with NYY
#546 – not with SEA, playing in Korea
#993 – not with SEA, FA

10. Jeff R. says:

I really appreciate your work. I don’t see Addison Reed of the White Sox listed on your pitcher projections.
Thanks

• J. Cross says:

We should be able to add him in for our next update.

11. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:

hey fellas. Sent here from the good guys at Razzball. Like your rankings. One quick question related to Michael Pineda… Why the IP projection of 160 (which causes his K’s to fall to 148). Kid threw 170 innings last year, should be on track for a full schedule… Are you assuming the Yankees limit his innings? Or are you foreseeing an injury?

• J. Cross says:

Thanks for the note.

I do think that Pineda is a relatively high injury risk this year but off hand I don’t think that should drop his projected IP to 160 unless the Yankees are limiting his innings. We’re going to do an analysis of playing time projections and injury risk in a couple of weeks and then work on fine tuning our playing time projections based on that.

12. Sean says:

Just an FYI…

Brett Myers will be closing for the Astros this season.

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120228&content_id=26890094&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou

• Dash says:

Thanks.

We will be releasing an updated version soon with changes for injuries, role reassignments and trades so in that version we will have Myers projected in his new role.

13. mattmaison says:

Don’t know if you’re planning on adding it for an update, but just wanted to let you know that the hitters spreadsheet is missing 5×5 dollar values.

Otherwise, the projections look great so far!

14. J. Cross says:

Noted. We just need to go through and determine the replacement levels by position. Might have to do this for a couple of formats since the number of active catchers, outfielder, MIF etc would make a difference.

• J. Cross says:

Better yet, use the Last Player Picked files (just added) to get \$ values.

15. John says:

Thanks again for the CSV files for LPP. From reading through the site it sounds like you have at least one big update in the works to adjust for playing time and maybe adding in some missing players and what not. When are you targeting to have that update ready? I’m just curious as I prepare for my draft.

Thanks again and keep up the great work.

• J. Cross says:

We want to get it done ASAP but Dash and Peter are busy with papers and I have papers to grade… so, hopefully I’ll be posting something on Sunday but I can’t promise that it won’t take longer.

16. Joel says:

Thanks again, guys. These are awesome.

17. chuckiT says:

Love the site, thank you for your work.

I tried uploading the CSV files for the LPP tool, and am getting “errors”. Can you please look into this?

• J. Cross says:

Will do. I just tried it and got the same error. Not sure what’s wrong.

• J. Cross says:

Ok, thanks to Brian Jenner these should work now.

• chuckiT says:

Thank you.

18. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:

hey guys, putting together my draft software for this weekends draft and just want to make sure i don’t do double work. Will this be the final update before this weekend?

• J. Cross says:

The final update won’t be out until next week (just before the start of the season) I’m afraid.

• The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:

gotcha, thanks! I think the majority of drafts across the country will be this weekend.

I’ll use this version though. thanks again

19. M. Austin says:

Any plan on including or reasoning behind excluding Quality Starts and Blown Saves?

20. MP says:

Jesus Flores is missing.

21. Kyle says:

These projections are excellent. Thank you kindly for giving these to us.
Like Talented Mr. Dope Man above, I have my draft this Saturday, and wanted to check and see if there will be any updates between now and then. Just want to make sure I have the latest information.
Thanks again!

• J. Cross says:

Thanks, Kyle!

Sorry for the slow response. I’ve been distracted. No more updates in the short term, unfortunately but I think we might put out an All-Star Break update in anticipation of more consistent updates next year.

22. Excellent post, i for certain love the blog, keep on it. If you have a chance check out my site Blank Tee’s.

23. Brian says:

Some of these look way out of whack. I jumped straight to the Blue Jays starting rotation to see how things look, and none of the 5 guys are projected under a 4 ERA. Morrow was projected by Steamer to have a 3.63 ERA last season. He went out and had a career year with a 2.96 ERA and now his 2013 projection is 4.04. Same goes for Josh Johnson. RA Dickey has had a 2.95 ERA over the past 3 seasons and is projected to be above 4. I know these are objective and Steamer has never really liked knuckeballers, but has something changed from prior seasons?

• J. Cross says:

I’m just mad that you guys have Reyes and Dickey now.

Dickey would have been projected to have a 3.69 ERA with the Mets. That said, I think it’s fair to question how Steamer handles knuckleballers at this point. Definitely something we want to work on more. We don’t use fastball velocity for knuckleballs and instead just regress them to the mean of other knuckleballers. Still, we basically assume that they are like other pitchers in terms of how their ERA depends on K’s, BB’s, GB% etc. and I know that’s not quite right. Steamer definitely doesn’t know whether knuckleballers are more effective in domes or anything like that.

Steamer had high expectations for Morrow last year and he had a career year in terms of ERA but it wasn’t a career year in terms of peripherals – his strikeout rate was way down and he’s unlikely to repeat his .252 BABIP. Josh Johnson also fell off in K% and his fastball velocity is down from his best days. The Blue Jays, as a team, are projected to improve from a 4.64 ERA last year to a 4.12 ERA in 2013 so that’s not too shabby. We’ve made a couple of tweaks to the formulas (as we do every year) but, by and large, I don’t think anything has changed.

• Brian says:

Makes sense. I was just hoping to see a couple guys with a 3 at the front of their ERA! I realize a lot of that is due to the park they play in and the teams they play against, too.

Thanks for the projections, I always look forward to these.

24. Blancheball says:

Thanks for this. How can we rank players in the spreadsheet? Doesn’t seem to be a filter to do this.

25. PriceGuideFan says:

Hey guys,

any plans on making Last Player Picked formatted sheets for this year?

Great work again last year.

26. J. Cross says:

PriceGuideFan, it looks like Mays has you covered:

http://lastplayerpicked.wordpress.com/2013/01/29/early-2013-steamers/

• defaultPos says:

Sorry if I am missing this – but is the expected Position for each player available anywhere? Not seeing it in the Razzball spreadsheet. Thanks.

• J. Cross says:

27. Closer Guru says:

For your 2013 closer projections, why are saves either 30 or 10 only for each closer?

28. PriceGuideFan says:

Thanks J.

Have you guys discussed how you’re doing playing time projections this year? Has it changed from prior years?

• J. Cross says:

Closer Guru+Price Fan Guide,

Razzball is doing the playing time projections and the saves/holds/QS projections that you see in this download file and on Razzball so that’s one change. Rudy Gamble (of Razzball) simply knows the MLB depth charts much better than I do at this point and can do a much better job of this stuff than I could. I’m guessing that the saves are 30/10 simply b/c at this point in the pre-season no much precision is warranted but I should defer to him on that.

• A says:

Are the playing time projections from Razzball the reason why these stats differ from what is posted on Fangraphs, or are there other differences?

Thanks very much!!!!

29. DBA says:

First, a big thank you for the work you do. The STEAMER projections have quickly become one of my favorites.

Second, any insight you can offer into the Pujols projection? After 4 consecutive years of declining walk rates and ISO, I’m quite surprised to see both forecast to tick back up in his age-33 season (never mind have the 2nd highest HR projection of anyone in baseball!).

• J. Cross says:

Thanks!

I can tell you that we have Busch Stadium II reducing RHB HR’s by 8% and Angel Stadium increasing them by 1.5% (granted, those factors should matter less for Pujols than other guys). But I think the real story is that we’re not really projecting a trend. We’re weighing seasons further back less, but we’re not looking at the decline and therefore projecting further decline. Those higher HR totals in the past are helping him.

30. WHIP says:

Anyone else notice that the stated WHIP in the Razzball sheet is different from a calculation of (BB+H)/IP? Looks like the reported number is greater than the calculated number by 8% or so – seemingly less for groundballers (eg, Brad Ziegler) and more for flyball types (eg, Jared Weaver, Phil Hughes).

Can someone please fill me in on what I am missing here? Thanks.

• J. Cross says:

Ah! Good catch. That H column is showing non-HR hits. So, this hits column should be higher than it is (and, as you point out, this difference will be greater for flyball/HR pitchers than groundball pitchers). The WHIPs and everything else should be okay, that column is just misnamed. I’ll put up an updated sheet.

31. Ben says:

The spreadsheet is great, and always very helpful; I’m working on a tweak right now.

I’m trying to devise solid predictive formulas for holds and Quality Starts for my league; any suggestions?

• Ben says:

I guess my question should be, can the file be updated to reflect the holds and quality start predictions that Rudy has added on Razzball?

• J. Cross says:

Hi Ben,

The QS and holds are Razzball’s and I can’t make them available for download here. Is there a category you need that isn’t in one of the point shares formulas on Razzball?

• Ben says:

No, it’s just QS and Holds. For now, I’ve made QS based on a rudimentary combination of GS, ERA and IP/GS, while I’m calculating holds based on games and Z-values for K/9, WHIP, and K/BB (I’ve also zeroed out any pitcher for whom G=GS or for whom SV>20). I’m hopeful it’ll be good, at least until (unless?) Razzball allows you to include their holds/QS projections in your downloads.

Thanks again for the amazing work!

This is great stuff again. However, I’d like to see holds added to the downloadable spreadsheet. Also would be nice if you could come up with reasonable projections for , CGs and SHOs. Those stats would be very helpful for us point leaguers. Thanks again for doing such a bang up job though.

33. Kody says:

Question #2- Why does Josh Rutledge have so many AB when he has Tulo batting in front of him? Is he used alot? I’m not too familiar with the way the Rockies play.

• Matt W says:

He’s moving to 2nd supposedly

34. DBA says:

What’s the general timeline for ongoing updates/changes in playing time projections?
Thanks.

35. J. Cross says:

DBA,

I’d like to make this more and more automated so that I can update them more frequently. Maybe I could have a google doc that just refreshes:

What do you think?

• SJ says:

Love the idea if it means getting the absolute latest update before I draft. It’d be great if each update could be dated/timed so we know if we have the latest. Thanks for these!

• J. Cross says:

Ok, I added two new pages:

If you go to one of these you’ll get the latest downloaded automatically.

• SJ says:

Could u give us notice each time you update? I take your projections and play with them for my league’s settings, so its important to know whether I must reformat or not.

• John says:

When clicking on these links the CSV file seems to be named with todays date. Does that mean there was an update today or will the current date always appear in the file name?

• J. Cross says:

It doesn’t mean that (it just gives the date of the download)… but I did just make an update!

36. Byron says:

You put spaces in front of all the names! Why, why would you do that! I shouldn’t need to come up with =RIGHT(C2&D2,LEN(C2)+LEN(D2)-1) even if I’m incredibly proud of being able to.

• J. Cross says:

Heh, sorry Byron!

I didn’t do it on purpose – there’s a database exporting to a csv file and there was a space in the php code… basically I don’t know what I’m doing! That said, I think I fixed it.

• Mike says:

FYI, if you have a column of data in Excel and you know every single cell has just one space in front of it you want to get rid of, you can highlight the data, use Data > Text to Column > Fixed Width. Then set your columns to mark that single character (space) as one column, and the rest as the second column. Then select to “skip” importing the first column, and hit OK.

• Byron says:

Thanks, but it sounds easier to just do =RIGHT(CELL,LEN(CELL)-1)). My formula up top was only that complicated because I was also uniting the first and last name fields simultaneously.

37. Zac says:

Any chance for a Hiroyuki Nakajima projection or do you not get involved with NPB comparisons?

• J. Cross says:

We should have him added pretty soon.

• hankp says:

Is Ryu another guy that is likely to be added?

38. MP says:

Do you have any way to project Fujikawa?

• MP says:

39. hankp says:

Any chance of getting MLB IDs added to the pitchers like you’ve got for the hitters?

• J. Cross says:

• hankp says:

Now that’s service…thanks!

40. hankp says:

Do you expect to have any more updates before the season?

41. Jason P. says:

Yes I am curious about that as well, especially since my auction is 9 days away.

• J. Cross says:

We’ll have an update within the next 9 days, definitely.

42. Bill says:

We are using these in school for Excel learning, I figured if it was something interesting the kids would stay focused. Is this data for preseason 2013? I thought it was until I saw 43 home runs for one player and a lot of innings pitched for the preseason.

Thanks for all you do.

• Byron says:

These are projections for the upcoming 2013 season.

• J. Cross says:

Yes, thanks for answering this. I didn’t see it before.

43. Brian says:

Billy Hamilton is projected for 55 SB attempts in 202 PA. Considering you only project him to get on base 63 times, something is amiss. I only point it out in case it’s a systemic error that applies to other players in less obvious ways.

• J. Cross says:

Hi Brian,

I’m seeing 14.6 in 70 PA on this site (Razzball playing time) and 44 SB in 207 PA on Fangraphs. It’s possible that one of those PA numbers just changed – I haven’t been keeping track of it – but the SB/PA ratio should basically stay the same. Anyway, I agree that it’s too high and I’ll look into what’s happening here.

• Brian says:

I’m using the ones from Fangraphs. And yes, it was 207 not 202.

There are some other odd playing time projections from the Fangraphs set (Ramsey, Lindor, Buxton and Naquin all projected for 555 PA, amongst other oddities).

So, are the Razzball playing time projections the ones you recommend using? What is the difference between the Razzball and Fangraphs variations of the projections/playing time?

• J. Cross says:

The Fangraphs playing time is from Fangraphs Fans and adjusted down to account for Fan optimism. The Razzball playing time (here) is from Rudy Gamble of Razzball. The Fangraphs fans have done pretty decently in the past but you’ll get the occasional crazy projection so using Rudy’s projections is safer, I’d think, and I expect them to be good. We’ll know at the end of the year, I guess.

• Brian says:

Ah, OK. Makes sense. It includes guys with less than 8 projections, which accounts for the weird ones like Buxton. I think I’ll use Razzball playing time when there are less than 8 fan votes. Thanks! Excellent work, as usual.

44. Greg says:

Is there a way to organize your projections into rankings? Is there something I can adjust in the excel file to have these projections rank players for 5×5 leagues?

45. Brian says:

So, Aroldis is back to the bullpen. Do you have a quick projection for him as a reliever?

• J. Cross says:

Hi Brian,

Sorry I’m slow on this but our projections now have Chapman as a closer.

• Scott says:

3/29 CSV file still appears to have Chapman projected as a starter.

• J. Cross says:

Oh, thanks for noting this! We had a mix up with our dropbox files. I’ll get on this.

• J. Cross says:

Fixed! Thanks!

46. Pingback: Updating Projections | RotoValue

47. Phil says:

Hi,

I was wondering if you know whether or not your projections will be updated on Fan Graphs in the next few days?

Thanks,
Phil

• J. Cross says:

They are updated with the new Mariners fence adjustment as of today and they’ll have one more (last, I believe) adjustment that should appear tomorrow a little after 9 am.

48. David says:

Hello

I just wanted to thank you for taking your time to help us out with projections. My fantasy auction is a couple days away, and I was just finishing my projections using your stats, when I noticed something. Overall, your projections for SB’s seems to be very low. I compared them to other projections systems as well as last years real results and noticed that they are extremely low. I kinda doubt that this indicates a problem, but I am curious why your stolen bases are being projected so low this year.

Thanks

• J. Cross says:

Thanks, David.

I have some ideas about things we could do to improve our SB model and reason that regressing young players to the league mean might not be the best way to go but rather than speculate here I think I’d better investigate this more fully and report back when I have a better grasp on this.

49. MP says:

Curious if you are going to post a summary of your off-season research and outline (roughly) the changes to the Steamer algo for this season. Thanks!

• J. Cross says:

Definitely.