Author Archive: J. Cross

Now with Fangraphs Park Factors

Steamer has officially adopted Fangraphs

Parks Factors, the differences are considerably larger than I might have
expected and I think we can all feel good about this change. Park factors were
never something we had great enthusiasm for, some of our park factors were out
of date and, personally, I am quite pleased to pass the buck and rely on Fangraphs here. Go here to
read up on how Fangraphs creates its park factors.

So, how big are the changes and whose projections changed the
most?

(more…)

Updated Save Projections

We’ve updated our save projections so that now they take advantage of information from the Fangraph Fan Ballots in addition to the Fangraphs Depth Charts.

Before the update, our system was quite simple: all pitchers who were rated as the leading closer candidate for their team were assigned 28 saves, all #2 guys were given 6 saves and all #3 guys were given 3 saves.

Now, Joe Nathan, Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson lead the way with 35 projected saves (our new maximum) and John Axford, despite being the #1 guy on the Indians depth chart falls all the way to 20 saves, with Cody Allen and Vinnie Pestano each taking 8. Danny Farquhar, the #2 guys for the Mariners, goes from only 6 projected saves up to 15, with Fernando Rodney taking 23. Pedro Strop is projected for 9 saves despite ranking 5th in the Cubs pen.

Let me know if anything looks amiss.

Jose Abreu… still a stud

We’re backing off just a bit from our stunning original Jose Abreu projection. His projected line, which was .292/.381/.554, is now .279/.364/.518 making him roughly the 12th best hitter in the game. We’ll have more on the reasoning behind this adjustment in the future but we wanted to give early drafters an immediate heads up.

Jose Abreu

Our projections for Jose Abreu and Alexander Guerrero are up on Fangraphs.

Abreu gets a monster projection. His .401 wOBA projection is the 3rd highest in baseball. Obviously, this has a great deal of uncertainty around it. We don’t have any Cuban park factors and simply projected Cuban baseball as a high-A quality league. We’ll see what happens.