Author Archives: J. Cross

The final pre-season (sort of — really, as of March 30th, 2014) projections are available here where they’ll remain untouched for posterity.  There’s also a zip file in there that has our split hitter projections (v. LHP and v. RHP projections, that is). … Continue reading →

We’ve made what are likely (hopefully) our final methodological tweaks of the 2014 pre-season. First, we started accounting for pitcher defense (including how pitchers affect the running game) which helps Clayton Kershaw and Mark Buehrle among others.  We also tweaked … Continue reading →

As of this morning, we’ve updated our fielding projections.  There are two major changes in the way we’re cooking this year’s fielding projections.   First, these are now based on more data: 5 past years and the current season (in-season, … Continue reading →

Our previous regression levels for hitters were too high and didn’t fully reflect the lower offensive levels we’ve been seeing in the last couple of years.  Our new lower levels knock hitters down by roughly 3 wOBA points on average … Continue reading →

Steamer has officially adopted Fangraphs Parks Factors, the differences are considerably larger than I might have expected and I think we can all feel good about this change. Park factors were never something we had great enthusiasm for, some of … Continue reading →

We’ve updated our save projections so that now they take advantage of information from the Fangraph Fan Ballots in addition to the Fangraphs Depth Charts. Before the update, our system was quite simple: all pitchers who were rated as the … Continue reading →

\(\) A team has m wins and n losses. What is the probability that, at some point in the season, they had a .500 record? I posed this question over on the book blog and Kincaid presented the following solution … Continue reading →

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We’re backing off just a bit from our stunning original Jose Abreu projection. His projected line, which was .292/.381/.554, is now .279/.364/.518 making him roughly the 12th best hitter in the game. We’ll have more on the reasoning behind this … Continue reading →

Our projections for Jose Abreu and Alexander Guerrero are up on Fangraphs. Abreu gets a monster projection. His .401 wOBA projection is the 3rd highest in baseball. Obviously, this has a great deal of uncertainty around it. We don’t have … Continue reading →