There have been some great articles on how to use regression towards the mean and (roughly equivalently, I’d claim) Bayes Theorem to make projections but in case they left you still wanting more, here are some interactive slides that demonstrate the concept. For a full discussion of the mathematics, Kincaid has you covered. Anyway, here you go:
We started keeping a weekly log of past projections in June. This might give you a sense of just how quickly these things change 😉
We set up a page where you can cook your own Steamer Percentile Projections using a player’s projected mean, his playing time and his reliability score. Let us know what you think.