Steamer Projections

2012 Steamer Hitter Projections

Update: Version 3.0 of the pitcher projections is out. We adjusted Steamer to account for the lower run environment over the last couple of years.

The 2012 Steamer Hitter Projections are now available for download.

We’ve also uploaded version 2.0 of our pitcher projections. This version includes the projected fastball velocities that Steamer uses in its pitcher forecasts. For pitchers with prior MLB experience we generated these numbers using pitch f/x data from Fangraphs and Peter deserves a great deal of credit for laboriously typing in fastball velocities from the 2012 Minor League Baseball Analyst for the guys who haven’t yet made it to the show.

Enjoy and thanks in advance for your input!

Comments (16)

  1. Luke

    Woohoo! Great news. You all rock. Keep up the good work.

    Reply
  2. Jeremiah

    Amazing work! Any chance you could add games played?

    Reply
  3. pronk

    Any chance you can run a projection Chris Sale purely as a starter (as opposed to his current projection, which splits time between starting and relief pitching).

    Reply
    1. J. Cross (Post author)

      Yes! Thanks for the idea, I just posted it.

      Reply
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  5. Brian

    Batting averages seem severely depressed. Only 6 guys are projected to hit .300 and none above .313. Last season 26 players batted over .300 in over 500 plate appearances, and 9 of them were over .313. 2010 and 2009 show the same pattern. Seems like everybody has been regressed towards a .267 BA as if it’s not a skill. BABIP for hitters is much more of a repeatable skill than it is for pitchers but looks like it’s been regressed in the same way.

    Reply
    1. J. Cross (Post author)

      Brian, thanks for the comment.

      Remember that variance in outcomes is variance in talent + variance in luck. In other words, seasonal batting averages (which depend on talent and luck) should be more spread out than projections which are merely proxies for talent.

      No question, *someone* will hit higher than .313. But what I’m saying is that there’s no single player who is likely to hit higher than that. If you check out other high quality projection systems you’ll see roughly the same thing. The highest projected BA in Zips is .310, for instance.

      Reply
      1. Brian

        Yes, I must have been tired when I was browsing through them. It was a bit of a shock to sort by BA and see only a handful hovering above .300 but it makes sense and it’s a pretty basic principle. Duh.

        Reply
  6. Zac

    Can you talk about how you are figuring playing time estimates for hitters? Figuring playing time estimates seems to be more art than science, and I was planning to use projections using the consensus fan projection at fangraphs, but if steamer can be at least close (and avoid the instances where fan projections may be out of date, like those who assumed that Braun would be suspended, for instance), I will use that instead.

    Reply
    1. Brian

      I’m interested in this too. With the prevalence of advanced stats, there are exponentially diminishing returns on making rate stats more accurate. The real gains (in terms of fantasy baseball) will be made with accurate playing time projections. No matter how good you project wOBA it means nothing if the AB and IP projections are out of whack. This is really hard to nail down until the end of March, but it’s extremely important. Last season I used the Fangraphs projections for AB and IP, with minor tweaks of course for players whose roles have changed (Feliz, for instance). It worked out pretty well.

      Reply
      1. J. Cross (Post author)

        I’m glad you guys are interested b/c we’re going to do a big writeup of this, looking into which systems have been the most accurate in projecting playing time and looking at injury rates.

        Here’s a writeup I did last March that we plan to build on:

        http://www.fangraphs.com/community/index.php/2010-forecast-evaluations-part-i/

        Reply
        1. Chris

          Any chance that happens in the next week or so? Can’t wait!

          Reply
  7. JP

    Is Ryan Vogelsong missing or did I just miss him?

    Reply
    1. JP

      Crap, replied under the wrong post… sorry… but he seems to be missing from pitcher projections…

      Reply
  8. J. Cross

    We’re aiming to do an All-Star break update and then *maybe* have the system set up to update itself daily at some point.

    Reply
  9. Ben

    Cool! Looking forward to it.

    Reply

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