Steamer Projections Blog

The Hollow Under the Knee

Posted on April 14, 2013 by J. Cross

Dave Cameron recently suggested that the rise in strikeouts over the last 6 years could be at least partially due to changes in umpiring. On The Book Blog forum, mcbrown focused in on 0-0 counts with the bases empty and looked at called strike rates, ball rates and swing rates by year. I thought it might be interesting to follow his lead and look at pitches taken on 0-0 counts with the bases empty (right-handed hitters only) and see if the called strike zone has changed. Brian Mills and David Golebiewski have looked at this before.

It’s not obvious or dramatic but it looks like the bottom of the called strike zone has moved down a bit matching what David Golebiewski found when looking at this after the 2011 season. Look at 2008 and 2009, the center of the bottom dashed line falls in the sky blue range indicating something like a 35% chance of a strike call. By 2011 and 2012, it’s in the green, suggesting roughly a 50% chance of a strike call.

There’s another little bit of trickiness based on how I collected the data above. Hoping to get a less hazy look at the bottom and top of the strike zone, I limited the data to pitches on which the mlbam stringer had entered an “sz_bot” and “sz_top” (indicated the bottom and top of the strikezone) that were within 0.1 feet of the average values over the five year span. This would throw out the tall/upright and short/crouching batters. But maybe all we’re seeing in the images above are changes in how the stringers enter the bottom of the strike zone? Brian Mills looked at this issue as well as the issue of systematic bias in strike zone designations. He suggests that there were a changes in how sz_bot and sz_top were assigned some time in 2007. I left 2007 out of this analysis completely. To check for moving strike zone designations, I looked at batters who stepped up to the plate in all five years (339 of them) and looked at the average bottom and top that had been assigned to each batter in each year and then the average of those averages for each year.

	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
bottom	1.59	1.63	1.68	1.61	1.60
top	3.44	3.44	3.46	3.43	3.45

It looks like something a little funny happened in 2010 where for the same group of hitters the average sz_bot snuck up by about an inch but there doesn’t appear to be a trend in designated strike zone size.

So, has the bottom of the strike zone moved down? And how much difference could this make?

Posted in Uncategorized | 6 Comments

Final 2013 Steamer Projections

Posted on March 31, 2013 by J. Cross

The final batch of Steamer Projections (for posterity, I suppose) welcomes Jose Fernandez and reluctantly accepts that Johan Santana is out for the year.

You can find them here.

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

The Rosenheck Factor

Posted on March 29, 2013 by J. Cross

Dan Rosenheck showed that pitchers who get more pop ups and more swings and misses in the strike zone tend to have lower BABIPs and lower ERAs. Steve Saude also wrote about this back in October. As of today, Steamers’ pitcher projections take these factors into account.

Why did we wait until two days before the start of the season for this update?!?!

Well, Dan plays in a high stakes fantasy league that drafted last night and he didn’t want his secret sauce to get out to the public before the big draft. Anyway, the table below shows ERAs, BABIPs and WHIPs both before and after this adjustment. Ted Lilly gains the most from this adjustment but Marco Estrada’s jump might matter more to fantasy players; Dan won Estrada in last night’s auction but had to pay $11, so he wasn’t the only one interested.

[Note: After making this update, we also shifted Ted Lilly towards more of a bullpen role which brings his ERA down to 3.80]

Name	ERA	ERAold	BABIP	BABIPold	WHIP	WHIPold
Ted Lilly	4.05	4.27	0.280	0.284	1.29	1.31
Neftali Feliz	3.34	3.51	0.280	0.286	1.29	1.31
Chris Young	4.75	4.92	0.278	0.280	1.38	1.39
Marco Estrada	3.66	3.81	0.283	0.287	1.21	1.23
Tyler Clippard	3.01	3.16	0.272	0.279	1.20	1.23
Bruce Chen	4.38	4.53	0.287	0.288	1.35	1.35
Phil Hughes	4.10	4.24	0.285	0.287	1.28	1.29
Colby Lewis	3.90	4.04	0.283	0.285	1.23	1.24
J.J. Hoover	3.27	3.41	0.283	0.287	1.26	1.27
Antonio Bastardo	2.88	3.01	0.277	0.284	1.20	1.22
David Hernandez	2.85	2.98	0.282	0.287	1.19	1.21
Josh Lindblom	3.90	4.02	0.282	0.285	1.37	1.38
Jordan Norberto	3.80	3.92	0.287	0.290	1.40	1.42
Matt Moore	3.72	3.83	0.281	0.286	1.29	1.31
Alexi Ogando	3.99	4.10	0.285	0.288	1.29	1.3
Chris Capuano	3.62	3.73	0.287	0.289	1.22	1.23
Logan Ondrusek	4.22	4.33	0.291	0.292	1.44	1.45
Jon Rauch	3.64	3.75	0.288	0.289	1.29	1.29
Johan Santana	3.98	4.09	0.285	0.288	1.28	1.29
Troy Patton	3.70	3.81	0.290	0.292	1.29	1.3
Fernando Rodriguez	3.71	3.81	0.282	0.285	1.36	1.37
Kenley Jansen	2.31	2.41	0.276	0.285	1.10	1.13
Jonathan Papelbon	2.59	2.69	0.285	0.291	1.09	1.11
Alfredo Aceves	3.73	3.83	0.290	0.291	1.35	1.35
Tony Sipp	3.70	3.80	0.285	0.288	1.35	1.36
Ernesto Frieri	3.05	3.15	0.270	0.277	1.24	1.26
Michael Gonzalez	3.43	3.53	0.289	0.293	1.30	1.32
Dallas Braden	4.25	4.35	0.288	0.289	1.31	1.32
Josh Collmenter	3.99	4.10	0.287	0.289	1.28	1.28
Justin Verlander	3.36	3.46	0.285	0.289	1.16	1.17
Jose Valverde	3.75	3.85	0.291	0.293	1.36	1.37
Freddy Garcia	3.66	3.76	0.288	0.289	1.25	1.25
Ryan Webb	3.43	3.53	0.302	0.303	1.34	1.34
Jason Vargas	4.38	4.48	0.283	0.284	1.32	1.32
Jon Lester	3.79	3.88	0.299	0.300	1.31	1.31
Jesse Crain	3.47	3.56	0.283	0.288	1.30	1.31
Danny Duffy	3.79	3.88	0.290	0.292	1.33	1.34
Jeff Niemann	4.08	4.17	0.291	0.292	1.31	1.31
Jeremy Hellickson	4.37	4.46	0.285	0.287	1.36	1.36
Clayton Kershaw	3.16	3.25	0.287	0.291	1.15	1.16
Jered Weaver	3.83	3.92	0.279	0.281	1.21	1.22
Nick Hagadone	3.83	3.92	0.288	0.291	1.40	1.41
Matt Cain	3.67	3.76	0.287	0.288	1.22	1.22
Scott Feldman	3.70	3.78	0.294	0.294	1.26	1.26
Wade Davis	4.45	4.53	0.291	0.291	1.41	1.41
Jason Grilli	2.75	2.83	0.284	0.288	1.17	1.18
Eric Stults	4.28	4.36	0.289	0.289	1.35	1.35
Michael Bowden	3.85	3.93	0.286	0.287	1.38	1.38
Rafael Soriano	3.15	3.23	0.285	0.288	1.22	1.23
Brandon Gomes	3.59	3.67	0.284	0.286	1.31	1.32
Drew Smyly	3.65	3.73	0.286	0.288	1.26	1.27
Jose Mijares	3.57	3.65	0.287	0.288	1.32	1.33
A.J. Griffin	4.07	4.15	0.288	0.289	1.28	1.28
Dan Haren	3.47	3.55	0.290	0.291	1.15	1.15
John Lackey	4.43	4.51	0.295	0.294	1.38	1.38
Josh Beckett	3.73	3.81	0.290	0.292	1.24	1.25
Shaun Marcum	3.98	4.06	0.288	0.290	1.26	1.27
Hisanori Takahashi	3.40	3.47	0.288	0.291	1.25	1.26
Samuel Deduno	4.82	4.89	0.301	0.301	1.56	1.56
Bartolo Colon	4.01	4.09	0.294	0.292	1.25	1.25
Tyler Skaggs	4.22	4.29	0.290	0.291	1.36	1.37
Mariano Rivera	3.15	3.22	0.293	0.296	1.19	1.19
Grant Balfour	3.46	3.53	0.284	0.287	1.29	1.3
Luis Avilan	3.62	3.69	0.290	0.292	1.34	1.35
Hiroki Kuroda	3.98	4.05	0.296	0.297	1.27	1.27
Collin McHugh	4.32	4.39	0.291	0.293	1.37	1.37
Roy Halladay	3.45	3.52	0.295	0.296	1.16	1.17
Jake Peavy	3.94	4.01	0.287	0.288	1.23	1.23
Chris Tillman	4.59	4.66	0.287	0.287	1.40	1.4
Drew Pomeranz	4.55	4.62	0.300	0.301	1.43	1.44
Darren O'Day	3.43	3.50	0.285	0.287	1.22	1.23
Joe Paterson	4.16	4.22	0.296	0.296	1.44	1.44
Alfredo Simon	3.47	3.54	0.294	0.296	1.27	1.28
Dan Straily	4.10	4.16	0.284	0.285	1.33	1.33
Barry Zito	4.71	4.77	0.290	0.289	1.44	1.44
Frank Herrmann	3.88	3.94	0.289	0.289	1.33	1.34
Javier Lopez	3.67	3.73	0.300	0.301	1.38	1.39
Tony Watson	3.37	3.43	0.286	0.289	1.28	1.29
Cliff Lee	3.20	3.26	0.291	0.293	1.09	1.1
Anthony Bass	3.74	3.80	0.292	0.292	1.29	1.3
Mitchell Boggs	3.34	3.40	0.296	0.297	1.29	1.29
Edgmer Escalona	4.12	4.18	0.295	0.297	1.40	1.41
Raul Valdes	3.20	3.26	0.284	0.287	1.18	1.19
Matt Guerrier	3.90	3.96	0.289	0.290	1.36	1.36
Jeremy Horst	3.78	3.84	0.290	0.292	1.34	1.35
Darren Oliver	3.30	3.36	0.297	0.298	1.24	1.24
Daniel Hudson	4.01	4.06	0.291	0.292	1.27	1.27
Matt Garza	3.66	3.72	0.290	0.291	1.23	1.24
James Russell	3.78	3.84	0.284	0.286	1.30	1.31
Jeremy Affeldt	3.33	3.39	0.301	0.301	1.32	1.32
Michael Kohn	3.83	3.89	0.282	0.284	1.39	1.39
Vinnie Pestano	3.21	3.27	0.287	0.292	1.24	1.25
Luke Gregerson	3.18	3.23	0.290	0.293	1.23	1.24
Tommy Milone	3.89	3.95	0.289	0.288	1.22	1.21
Matt Harvey	3.90	3.95	0.291	0.293	1.32	1.33
Joakim Soria	3.50	3.55	0.289	0.291	1.27	1.27
Scott Baker	3.74	3.79	0.286	0.287	1.21	1.22
Cole Hamels	3.40	3.45	0.290	0.294	1.16	1.17
Jorge de la Rosa	4.48	4.53	0.301	0.302	1.39	1.4
Tyson Ross	4.00	4.05	0.296	0.296	1.38	1.38
Luis Perez	3.84	3.89	0.301	0.302	1.39	1.4
Craig Stammen	3.87	3.92	0.293	0.294	1.31	1.32
Andy Pettitte	3.87	3.92	0.297	0.297	1.27	1.27
Rick Porcello	4.13	4.18	0.300	0.298	1.33	1.32
Mike Adams	3.35	3.40	0.292	0.294	1.23	1.24
Eric O'Flaherty	3.21	3.26	0.298	0.299	1.29	1.29
Justin De Fratus	3.42	3.47	0.292	0.294	1.27	1.28
Yu Darvish	3.38	3.42	0.290	0.294	1.20	1.21
Trevor Rosenthal	3.19	3.24	0.292	0.294	1.26	1.27
Carlos Villanueva	3.80	3.85	0.286	0.287	1.28	1.28
Aroldis Chapman	2.35	2.40	0.283	0.292	1.11	1.13
Robbie Ross	3.50	3.54	0.299	0.299	1.31	1.31
Ian Kennedy	3.89	3.93	0.289	0.290	1.24	1.25
Shelby Miller	3.90	3.94	0.291	0.292	1.32	1.33
Frank Francisco	3.43	3.47	0.289	0.292	1.28	1.29
Nick Vincent	3.28	3.32	0.287	0.289	1.25	1.26
Xavier Cedeno	3.83	3.88	0.292	0.292	1.35	1.35
Blake Beavan	4.88	4.92	0.291	0.288	1.36	1.35
Luis Ayala	3.97	4.01	0.295	0.294	1.34	1.34
Robert Carson	4.04	4.08	0.293	0.293	1.41	1.41
Daniel Bard	4.10	4.14	0.296	0.296	1.47	1.47
Brandon McCarthy	3.90	3.94	0.298	0.297	1.25	1.24
Al Alburquerque	3.15	3.19	0.289	0.294	1.27	1.28
Randall Delgado	4.16	4.19	0.296	0.297	1.39	1.4
Jose Arredondo	3.89	3.93	0.290	0.292	1.38	1.39
Jhoulys Chacin	4.69	4.73	0.305	0.304	1.46	1.46
Sam LeCure	3.41	3.45	0.292	0.293	1.25	1.26
George Kontos	3.47	3.51	0.292	0.293	1.28	1.29
Franklin Morales	4.01	4.05	0.288	0.290	1.37	1.38
Michael Stutes	3.91	3.95	0.287	0.287	1.38	1.39
Erasmo Ramirez	4.38	4.42	0.292	0.291	1.33	1.33
Todd Redmond	4.31	4.35	0.292	0.292	1.33	1.33
Jared Burton	3.61	3.64	0.293	0.295	1.30	1.31
Michael Pineda	3.74	3.77	0.288	0.290	1.24	1.25
Joe Nathan	2.98	3.01	0.288	0.290	1.17	1.17
Steve Cishek	3.46	3.49	0.296	0.298	1.32	1.33
Chris Leroux	3.43	3.46	0.294	0.294	1.27	1.27
Aaron Laffey	4.00	4.03	0.301	0.299	1.39	1.38
Brad Ziegler	3.39	3.43	0.310	0.309	1.38	1.38
Mike Dunn	3.59	3.62	0.287	0.290	1.36	1.37
Koji Uehara	2.72	2.75	0.282	0.287	1.09	1.1
Drew Storen	3.13	3.16	0.291	0.293	1.22	1.23
Max Scherzer	3.43	3.46	0.284	0.287	1.18	1.19
Alex Burnett	4.25	4.28	0.298	0.297	1.44	1.43
Roberto Hernandez	4.16	4.19	0.299	0.297	1.35	1.35
Brian Matusz	3.77	3.80	0.286	0.286	1.30	1.3
Tanner Scheppers	3.59	3.62	0.290	0.291	1.30	1.31
Matt Capps	4.01	4.04	0.294	0.294	1.33	1.33
Randy Choate	3.43	3.46	0.299	0.301	1.33	1.34
Tom Gorzelanny	3.63	3.66	0.289	0.290	1.30	1.31
Matt Harrison	4.34	4.36	0.296	0.295	1.36	1.36
Jeff Locke	4.11	4.14	0.292	0.292	1.34	1.34
Sam Demel	3.65	3.67	0.298	0.298	1.34	1.35
Eduardo Sanchez	3.95	3.98	0.288	0.290	1.44	1.45
Kyle Drabek	5.23	5.25	0.303	0.302	1.60	1.6
Andrew Bailey	3.50	3.52	0.290	0.291	1.30	1.3
Mat Latos	3.81	3.84	0.290	0.291	1.24	1.25
Derek Holland	4.07	4.09	0.291	0.291	1.30	1.3
Ryan Vogelsong	4.13	4.15	0.293	0.292	1.34	1.34
Alex Sanabia	4.49	4.51	0.291	0.290	1.36	1.35
Casey Kelly	3.86	3.88	0.293	0.293	1.29	1.29
Jarrod Parker	4.23	4.25	0.294	0.294	1.36	1.36
Aaron Harang	4.36	4.38	0.289	0.288	1.38	1.38
Brandon Lyon	3.65	3.67	0.292	0.292	1.30	1.3
Bobby Parnell	3.18	3.20	0.300	0.302	1.26	1.26
David Huff	4.19	4.21	0.290	0.289	1.33	1.33
Matt Thornton	3.38	3.40	0.295	0.297	1.26	1.27
R.A. Dickey	4.16	4.17	0.297	0.299	1.29	1.3
Sean Marshall	2.83	2.85	0.297	0.299	1.17	1.17
Brett Cecil	4.63	4.64	0.295	0.294	1.39	1.39
Rob Scahill	4.98	5.00	0.303	0.302	1.52	1.52
Duane Below	4.13	4.15	0.292	0.291	1.37	1.36
Doug Fister	3.83	3.84	0.297	0.295	1.23	1.23
Thad Weber	4.16	4.18	0.295	0.294	1.33	1.32
Cesar Ramos	3.87	3.88	0.293	0.293	1.36	1.36
Tommy Hunter	3.78	3.80	0.294	0.291	1.25	1.23
Ross Detwiler	4.29	4.30	0.296	0.294	1.37	1.36
Tyler Thornburg	4.10	4.11	0.293	0.293	1.36	1.36
Bronson Arroyo	4.59	4.60	0.292	0.289	1.32	1.31
Jordan Walden	2.98	2.99	0.289	0.292	1.22	1.23
Chris Sale	3.62	3.63	0.293	0.295	1.23	1.23
John Danks	4.58	4.59	0.293	0.293	1.37	1.37
Jonathan Broxton	3.42	3.43	0.296	0.297	1.29	1.29
Chad Durbin	3.94	3.95	0.294	0.293	1.37	1.37
Johnny Cueto	3.99	4.00	0.296	0.295	1.27	1.27
Chris Resop	3.99	4.00	0.291	0.290	1.37	1.37
Jonny Venters	2.93	2.94	0.301	0.303	1.27	1.28
Jon Niese	3.78	3.79	0.299	0.298	1.26	1.26
Kelvin Herrera	3.04	3.05	0.299	0.301	1.23	1.23
Luis Mendoza	4.48	4.49	0.304	0.301	1.45	1.43
J.A. Happ	4.32	4.33	0.292	0.292	1.39	1.39
Pedro Strop	3.74	3.75	0.297	0.299	1.39	1.4
Rafael Betancourt	3.37	3.38	0.291	0.294	1.19	1.2
Jake Arrieta	4.20	4.21	0.292	0.292	1.36	1.36
Phillippe Aumont	3.85	3.86	0.295	0.297	1.42	1.43
Henderson Alvarez	4.01	4.02	0.306	0.304	1.36	1.34
Alex Cobb	3.83	3.84	0.300	0.299	1.32	1.31
Chris Perez	3.68	3.69	0.289	0.289	1.32	1.32
Glen Perkins	3.09	3.10	0.293	0.295	1.19	1.2
Gio Gonzalez	3.53	3.54	0.293	0.295	1.25	1.26
Yusmeiro Petit	4.11	4.12	0.294	0.293	1.30	1.29
Adam Warren	5.06	5.07	0.294	0.293	1.48	1.47
Kyle Farnsworth	3.46	3.47	0.291	0.292	1.27	1.28
Ryan Madson	3.31	3.32	0.286	0.288	1.24	1.25
John Ely	3.14	3.15	0.292	0.293	1.19	1.19
Chris Narveson	4.48	4.49	0.292	0.291	1.38	1.38
Carlos Torres	4.14	4.15	0.303	0.302	1.42	1.42
Kyle McPherson	3.79	3.79	0.292	0.292	1.24	1.24
Clayton Mortensen	4.03	4.04	0.296	0.295	1.39	1.39
Everett Teaford	4.48	4.48	0.298	0.296	1.43	1.42
A.J. Burnett	3.84	3.84	0.299	0.298	1.31	1.31
Esmil Rogers	3.57	3.57	0.299	0.299	1.30	1.3
Gavin Floyd	4.20	4.20	0.295	0.295	1.31	1.31
Bryan Morris	3.49	3.49	0.293	0.293	1.29	1.29
Eric Surkamp	4.06	4.06	0.292	0.291	1.32	1.32
Casey Coleman	3.83	3.83	0.293	0.292	1.35	1.34
Hector Noesi	4.79	4.79	0.289	0.289	1.42	1.42
Heath Bell	3.83	3.83	0.297	0.296	1.37	1.37
Chris Rusin	4.66	4.66	0.294	0.292	1.42	1.41
Arodys Vizcaino	3.90	3.90	0.290	0.290	1.30	1.3
Jared Hughes	3.57	3.57	0.300	0.299	1.33	1.32
Blake Wood	3.69	3.69	0.297	0.298	1.35	1.35
David Robertson	2.98	2.98	0.292	0.295	1.21	1.21
Chris Hatcher	3.76	3.76	0.294	0.293	1.36	1.36
Kyuji Fujikawa	2.96	2.96	0.290	0.292	1.20	1.2
Gerrit Cole	3.96	3.96	0.292	0.292	1.33	1.33
Zack Wheeler	4.38	4.38	0.295	0.295	1.43	1.43
JC Ramirez	4.14	4.14	0.294	0.293	1.40	1.4
Brian Duensing	4.31	4.31	0.298	0.296	1.35	1.34
Brandon Morrow	3.99	3.99	0.293	0.294	1.30	1.3
Kevin Jepsen	3.46	3.46	0.288	0.289	1.29	1.29
Hyun-jin Ryu	3.69	3.69	0.292	0.292	1.25	1.26
Aaron Crow	3.40	3.40	0.298	0.300	1.30	1.31
Tom Layne	3.84	3.84	0.292	0.291	1.37	1.37
Brad Brach	3.19	3.19	0.284	0.286	1.24	1.25
Hector Ambriz	4.25	4.25	0.291	0.291	1.43	1.43
Francisco Rodriguez	3.51	3.51	0.294	0.294	1.30	1.3
Sergio Romo	2.74	2.74	0.287	0.291	1.10	1.12
Jhan Marinez	4.44	4.44	0.292	0.292	1.53	1.53
David Price	3.44	3.44	0.292	0.293	1.20	1.2
Fernando Rodney	3.20	3.20	0.294	0.297	1.26	1.26
Andrew Cashner	3.42	3.42	0.291	0.294	1.23	1.24
Paco Rodriguez	3.36	3.36	0.292	0.293	1.30	1.31
Shawn Camp	3.84	3.84	0.297	0.296	1.34	1.33
Brian Wilson	3.50	3.50	0.295	0.296	1.31	1.32
Mark Lowe	3.53	3.53	0.292	0.293	1.30	1.3
Wade LeBlanc	4.38	4.38	0.289	0.288	1.34	1.34
Shawn Kelley	3.64	3.63	0.283	0.284	1.30	1.3
Adam Ottavino	3.86	3.86	0.304	0.304	1.37	1.38
Tony Cingrani	3.91	3.91	0.292	0.293	1.31	1.32
Craig Breslow	3.72	3.71	0.291	0.291	1.33	1.33
Octavio Dotel	3.31	3.31	0.282	0.285	1.22	1.23
Mark Rogers	4.91	4.91	0.292	0.292	1.53	1.53
Craig Kimbrel	1.84	1.84	0.282	0.290	0.99	1.01
Wily Peralta	4.32	4.32	0.297	0.297	1.44	1.44
Brad Boxberger	3.23	3.23	0.286	0.288	1.29	1.3
David Herndon	4.04	4.04	0.299	0.298	1.39	1.38
Elvin Ramirez	4.24	4.24	0.294	0.294	1.50	1.5
Jerry Blevins	3.82	3.81	0.287	0.288	1.34	1.35
Anibal Sanchez	4.04	4.03	0.290	0.291	1.27	1.27
Nick Masset	3.59	3.58	0.294	0.295	1.31	1.31
Jason Frasor	3.40	3.39	0.292	0.294	1.28	1.29
Leyson Septimo	4.59	4.58	0.292	0.292	1.58	1.58
Brett Anderson	3.83	3.82	0.301	0.300	1.29	1.28
Greg Holland	3.08	3.07	0.292	0.295	1.25	1.26
Trevor Cahill	3.95	3.95	0.306	0.305	1.36	1.36
Luke Hochevar	4.25	4.24	0.298	0.297	1.35	1.34
Josh Roenicke	4.52	4.51	0.297	0.296	1.50	1.49
Carl Pavano	4.19	4.18	0.302	0.299	1.29	1.27
Jon Garland	4.80	4.79	0.305	0.303	1.46	1.45
Evan Scribner	3.84	3.83	0.291	0.289	1.34	1.33
Jeremy Guthrie	4.77	4.77	0.297	0.293	1.42	1.4
Oliver Perez	4.12	4.11	0.288	0.287	1.43	1.43
Joel Peralta	3.22	3.21	0.278	0.280	1.19	1.19
Fernando Salas	3.43	3.42	0.286	0.287	1.28	1.28
Cory Luebke	3.64	3.63	0.288	0.289	1.23	1.24
Rex Brothers	3.45	3.44	0.300	0.303	1.33	1.34
Jenrry Mejia	4.43	4.42	0.302	0.300	1.45	1.44
Carlos Marmol	3.55	3.54	0.285	0.288	1.37	1.38
Ryan Mattheus	3.81	3.80	0.296	0.295	1.35	1.35
Brandon Kintzler	3.79	3.78	0.298	0.297	1.35	1.35
Ronald Belisario	3.22	3.21	0.301	0.302	1.30	1.3
Phil Coke	3.74	3.73	0.291	0.291	1.31	1.31
Julio Teheran	4.47	4.46	0.288	0.287	1.38	1.38
CC Sabathia	3.57	3.56	0.297	0.298	1.20	1.2
Henry Rodriguez	3.47	3.46	0.289	0.291	1.34	1.35
Will Harris	3.92	3.91	0.300	0.300	1.36	1.36
Pedro Beato	4.19	4.18	0.296	0.295	1.44	1.43
Jim Johnson	3.54	3.53	0.302	0.301	1.31	1.3
Wei-Yin Chen	4.29	4.28	0.287	0.287	1.31	1.31
Jeff Francis	4.31	4.30	0.307	0.305	1.32	1.31
Jaye Chapman	4.05	4.04	0.292	0.292	1.45	1.45
Liam Hendriks	4.50	4.49	0.296	0.294	1.35	1.34
Dillon Gee	4.09	4.08	0.298	0.297	1.31	1.31
J.J. Putz	2.98	2.97	0.294	0.295	1.17	1.17
Brad Lincoln	3.41	3.40	0.296	0.296	1.22	1.22
John Lannan	4.68	4.67	0.303	0.300	1.47	1.45
Brad Hand	4.98	4.97	0.289	0.288	1.56	1.55
Pat Neshek	4.14	4.13	0.287	0.286	1.39	1.39
Casey Crosby	5.17	5.16	0.293	0.292	1.59	1.58
Joaquin Benoit	3.11	3.10	0.283	0.287	1.18	1.2
Chris Carpenter	4.35	4.33	0.296	0.295	1.51	1.51
Sean Doolittle	2.73	2.71	0.284	0.287	1.15	1.16
Mike Minor	3.97	3.95	0.285	0.285	1.28	1.28
Miguel Gonzalez	4.54	4.53	0.288	0.287	1.37	1.37
Jordan Lyles	4.51	4.49	0.296	0.294	1.36	1.35
Felix Hernandez	3.45	3.43	0.298	0.298	1.19	1.19
Mike Fiers	4.02	4.00	0.289	0.289	1.28	1.28
Jordan Zimmermann	3.79	3.77	0.292	0.291	1.22	1.21
Josh Stinson	4.62	4.60	0.296	0.294	1.51	1.5
Jerome Williams	3.87	3.86	0.295	0.294	1.28	1.28
Justin Wilson	3.69	3.67	0.291	0.291	1.37	1.37
Brandon Beachy	3.67	3.65	0.285	0.286	1.23	1.23
Brooks Raley	4.81	4.79	0.293	0.290	1.45	1.44
David Carpenter	4.19	4.18	0.290	0.289	1.43	1.43
Joe Savery	3.96	3.94	0.295	0.293	1.35	1.35
Travis Wood	4.12	4.10	0.285	0.284	1.31	1.3
Darin Downs	3.86	3.84	0.291	0.290	1.33	1.33
Bryan Shaw	4.07	4.05	0.301	0.300	1.42	1.41
Wandy Rodriguez	4.20	4.18	0.296	0.294	1.33	1.33
Lucas Luetge	4.08	4.06	0.294	0.294	1.42	1.42
J.P. Howell	3.71	3.69	0.296	0.296	1.36	1.36
Brandon League	3.32	3.30	0.301	0.301	1.30	1.3
Daisuke Matsuzaka	4.76	4.74	0.290	0.288	1.44	1.43
Lucas Harrell	4.69	4.66	0.302	0.300	1.48	1.46
Chad Jenkins	5.28	5.25	0.301	0.297	1.50	1.48
Miles Mikolas	3.65	3.63	0.294	0.293	1.34	1.33
Josh Outman	4.67	4.65	0.302	0.301	1.48	1.47
Mark Melancon	3.26	3.24	0.298	0.298	1.27	1.27
Joe Smith	3.87	3.85	0.303	0.302	1.39	1.39
Tyler Chatwood	5.12	5.10	0.311	0.307	1.58	1.57
Martin Perez	5.21	5.18	0.296	0.293	1.57	1.56
Dallas Keuchel	5.18	5.16	0.298	0.294	1.49	1.47
Jose Ceda	3.50	3.48	0.292	0.293	1.33	1.33
Andrew Miller	3.87	3.85	0.295	0.295	1.43	1.43
Kris Medlen	3.61	3.59	0.294	0.294	1.21	1.21
Stephen Strasburg	2.84	2.82	0.290	0.293	1.08	1.09
Carlos Carrasco	4.11	4.09	0.298	0.297	1.33	1.33
Robbie Erlin	3.95	3.92	0.291	0.290	1.26	1.26
Nick Tepesch	4.65	4.62	0.292	0.290	1.42	1.41
Brad Bergesen	4.73	4.70	0.299	0.296	1.42	1.41
Ryan Cook	3.42	3.39	0.290	0.292	1.29	1.29
Huston Street	2.92	2.90	0.285	0.287	1.15	1.16
Jake McGee	2.76	2.73	0.286	0.288	1.14	1.15
Bruce Rondon	3.72	3.69	0.289	0.290	1.40	1.4
Cesar Cabral	3.84	3.81	0.294	0.293	1.37	1.37
Kyle Gibson	4.30	4.27	0.294	0.293	1.34	1.34
Nestor Molina	4.76	4.73	0.294	0.292	1.38	1.37
Simon Castro	4.91	4.88	0.294	0.292	1.43	1.42
Charlie Leesman	5.58	5.55	0.294	0.292	1.62	1.61
Nathan Eovaldi	4.54	4.51	0.296	0.295	1.44	1.43
Tommy Hottovy	4.22	4.19	0.296	0.295	1.45	1.44
Michael Kirkman	3.99	3.96	0.289	0.288	1.43	1.42
Alberto Cabrera	3.78	3.75	0.291	0.291	1.36	1.36
Mike Pelfrey	4.86	4.83	0.298	0.294	1.43	1.42
Danny Hultzen	4.78	4.76	0.291	0.291	1.53	1.53
Tsuyoshi Wada	4.45	4.42	0.291	0.290	1.35	1.34
Sonny Gray	4.97	4.94	0.293	0.291	1.50	1.49
Felix Doubront	4.02	3.99	0.296	0.296	1.34	1.34
Jacob Turner	4.50	4.47	0.296	0.294	1.40	1.39
Josh Fields	3.93	3.90	0.291	0.291	1.40	1.4
Rudy Owens	4.64	4.61	0.293	0.291	1.37	1.36
Francisco Liriano	3.88	3.85	0.294	0.296	1.32	1.33
Jake Westbrook	4.13	4.10	0.306	0.303	1.40	1.38
Tyler Cloyd	4.51	4.48	0.291	0.289	1.33	1.32
Brayan Villarreal	3.52	3.49	0.284	0.286	1.31	1.31
Trevor Bauer	4.31	4.28	0.294	0.294	1.41	1.41
Kyle Lohse	4.25	4.22	0.295	0.292	1.29	1.27
James Shields	3.67	3.64	0.299	0.298	1.23	1.23
Patrick Corbin	4.06	4.03	0.299	0.297	1.31	1.3
Jeff Samardzija	4.01	3.98	0.290	0.291	1.33	1.33
Cody Eppley	4.08	4.05	0.302	0.301	1.43	1.43
Jake Diekman	3.82	3.79	0.294	0.296	1.42	1.42
Nate Jones	3.89	3.86	0.294	0.294	1.37	1.37
Zack Greinke	3.26	3.23	0.296	0.296	1.15	1.15
Jason Berken	4.61	4.58	0.295	0.292	1.41	1.4
Clay Rapada	3.97	3.94	0.294	0.294	1.37	1.37
Zach Duke	4.33	4.30	0.298	0.295	1.35	1.34
Travis Blackley	4.26	4.23	0.294	0.293	1.36	1.35
Ubaldo Jimenez	4.53	4.50	0.295	0.294	1.42	1.42
Vin Mazzaro	4.94	4.90	0.299	0.296	1.52	1.5
Cory Gearrin	3.50	3.47	0.294	0.294	1.31	1.32
Shawn Tolleson	3.24	3.20	0.290	0.290	1.26	1.26
Mark Buehrle	4.82	4.78	0.300	0.296	1.38	1.36
Wilton Lopez	3.57	3.53	0.309	0.308	1.28	1.28
A.J. Ramos	3.39	3.36	0.292	0.293	1.31	1.31
Jim Henderson	3.66	3.63	0.292	0.293	1.35	1.36
Chris Archer	4.39	4.36	0.290	0.289	1.45	1.45
Santiago Casilla	3.56	3.53	0.298	0.297	1.33	1.33
Jesse Chavez	3.54	3.51	0.289	0.288	1.25	1.25
Steve Johnson	4.94	4.91	0.285	0.285	1.48	1.48
Tim Byrdak	3.77	3.73	0.289	0.289	1.36	1.36
Lance Lynn	3.78	3.74	0.293	0.294	1.28	1.28
Cole DeVries	4.80	4.76	0.290	0.287	1.38	1.37
Justin Masterson	4.19	4.15	0.305	0.303	1.38	1.37
Paul Maholm	4.10	4.07	0.299	0.296	1.33	1.31
Mike Leake	4.19	4.15	0.299	0.297	1.30	1.29
Dane de la Rosa	4.00	3.96	0.292	0.291	1.43	1.42
Dylan Bundy	4.45	4.41	0.290	0.289	1.38	1.38
Jose Veras	3.89	3.85	0.288	0.289	1.38	1.38
Cristhian Martinez	3.44	3.40	0.292	0.293	1.23	1.24
Jeremy Hefner	4.47	4.43	0.297	0.294	1.36	1.35
Rafael Dolis	4.22	4.18	0.296	0.294	1.47	1.47
Casey Janssen	3.28	3.24	0.299	0.299	1.22	1.22
Tom Wilhelmsen	3.48	3.44	0.291	0.292	1.29	1.29
Scott Maine	4.22	4.18	0.292	0.291	1.45	1.44
Scott Elbert	3.66	3.62	0.289	0.290	1.35	1.36
Jose Ortega	4.53	4.49	0.291	0.290	1.55	1.54
Javy Guerra	3.91	3.87	0.294	0.293	1.39	1.39
Vance Worley	4.42	4.38	0.296	0.293	1.37	1.36
Chien-Ming Wang	5.04	5.00	0.301	0.297	1.46	1.44
David Aardsma	4.09	4.05	0.293	0.292	1.40	1.4
Josh Johnson	4.17	4.13	0.300	0.298	1.32	1.32
Ervin Santana	4.40	4.35	0.297	0.294	1.37	1.36
Homer Bailey	4.09	4.05	0.293	0.292	1.27	1.26
Jake Odorizzi	4.53	4.49	0.289	0.288	1.40	1.4
Josh Kinney	3.84	3.79	0.294	0.293	1.35	1.35
Marcos Mateo	3.55	3.51	0.289	0.289	1.30	1.3
Jose Quintana	4.74	4.70	0.298	0.296	1.43	1.42
Luke Putkonen	4.37	4.33	0.294	0.292	1.43	1.42
Scott Downs	3.68	3.64	0.298	0.296	1.35	1.34
Scott Kazmir	5.03	4.99	0.293	0.291	1.52	1.51
Dale Thayer	3.44	3.39	0.290	0.289	1.25	1.24
Stephen Pryor	3.79	3.75	0.289	0.290	1.40	1.41
Tom Koehler	3.75	3.70	0.292	0.291	1.34	1.33
Matt Albers	3.91	3.86	0.300	0.299	1.38	1.38
Jason Hammel	4.34	4.30	0.295	0.293	1.35	1.34
Barry Enright	5.20	5.16	0.285	0.281	1.51	1.49
Brad Peacock	4.47	4.43	0.290	0.289	1.42	1.41
Burke Badenhop	3.68	3.63	0.304	0.301	1.34	1.33
Bud Norris	4.32	4.28	0.288	0.288	1.35	1.34
Donnie Veal	4.01	3.96	0.292	0.292	1.40	1.4
Yovani Gallardo	3.75	3.70	0.296	0.295	1.26	1.25
Wesley Wright	3.87	3.83	0.296	0.295	1.35	1.35
Chad Billingsley	4.05	4.00	0.295	0.293	1.31	1.3
Philip Humber	4.53	4.48	0.293	0.290	1.35	1.34
Jaime Garcia	3.67	3.62	0.301	0.299	1.26	1.25
Madison Bumgarner	3.49	3.44	0.295	0.294	1.18	1.18
Dylan Axelrod	4.52	4.47	0.294	0.293	1.38	1.37
Fautino De Los Santos	3.71	3.66	0.293	0.293	1.35	1.35
Hisashi Iwakuma	4.14	4.09	0.299	0.297	1.32	1.31
Stephen Fife	4.84	4.79	0.294	0.291	1.46	1.45
Joe Saunders	4.76	4.71	0.296	0.291	1.39	1.37
Edward Mujica	3.41	3.36	0.294	0.294	1.23	1.22
Ivan Nova	4.23	4.18	0.301	0.298	1.34	1.33
Tyler Robertson	4.14	4.09	0.296	0.295	1.42	1.41
Garrett Richards	4.53	4.48	0.291	0.289	1.43	1.43
Ricky Nolasco	4.13	4.08	0.298	0.295	1.28	1.27
Joe Blanton	3.94	3.89	0.289	0.288	1.22	1.22
Jeff Karstens	4.19	4.14	0.293	0.290	1.27	1.26
John Axford	3.13	3.08	0.294	0.296	1.24	1.25
Justin Grimm	4.70	4.64	0.294	0.292	1.41	1.4
Dan Jennings	4.26	4.21	0.296	0.294	1.47	1.46
Christian Friedrich	4.58	4.53	0.303	0.301	1.40	1.39
Tim Hudson	4.03	3.98	0.303	0.300	1.34	1.33
Charlie Furbush	3.26	3.20	0.290	0.291	1.22	1.22
Ryan Dempster	4.19	4.14	0.295	0.294	1.34	1.33
Edinson Volquez	4.11	4.06	0.294	0.295	1.38	1.39
Tim Collins	3.41	3.35	0.289	0.293	1.32	1.33
Kyle Kendrick	4.54	4.49	0.297	0.293	1.36	1.35
Adam Wainwright	3.47	3.42	0.299	0.298	1.20	1.2
Ricky Romero	4.66	4.60	0.307	0.305	1.48	1.47
David Carpenter	3.94	3.88	0.294	0.293	1.38	1.38
Zach McAllister	4.40	4.34	0.294	0.292	1.34	1.33
David Phelps	4.14	4.08	0.295	0.294	1.33	1.32
Drew Hutchison	4.31	4.25	0.300	0.299	1.35	1.34
Marc Rzepczynski	3.42	3.36	0.303	0.301	1.32	1.32
Brett Myers	4.64	4.58	0.299	0.296	1.38	1.37
Sergio Santos	3.36	3.30	0.296	0.297	1.28	1.29
Clay Buchholz	4.42	4.36	0.300	0.298	1.39	1.38
Rubby de la Rosa	4.40	4.34	0.296	0.295	1.42	1.42
Sean Burnett	3.62	3.56	0.295	0.293	1.31	1.3
Felipe Paulino	3.74	3.68	0.295	0.295	1.30	1.29
Joba Chamberlain	3.38	3.32	0.297	0.296	1.25	1.25
Joe Kelly	4.29	4.23	0.300	0.297	1.41	1.4
Charlie Morton	4.23	4.17	0.304	0.301	1.39	1.38
Tim Lincecum	3.82	3.76	0.295	0.295	1.29	1.3
Junichi Tazawa	3.28	3.21	0.296	0.296	1.24	1.24
Jeremy Jeffress	4.42	4.36	0.298	0.297	1.53	1.53
Kevin Correia	4.91	4.85	0.300	0.296	1.44	1.41
Corey Kluber	4.32	4.25	0.296	0.295	1.38	1.38
Addison Reed	3.46	3.39	0.288	0.288	1.25	1.25
Erik Bedard	4.33	4.27	0.293	0.291	1.35	1.35
Jason Marquis	4.07	4.00	0.300	0.297	1.33	1.32
Matt Belisle	3.69	3.62	0.307	0.306	1.29	1.28
Zach Britton	4.31	4.24	0.301	0.298	1.41	1.4
Jason Motte	2.82	2.75	0.288	0.290	1.14	1.15
Hector Santiago	3.84	3.77	0.291	0.291	1.37	1.37
Boone Logan	3.45	3.38	0.291	0.293	1.28	1.29
Luis Marte	4.04	3.97	0.288	0.287	1.39	1.39
Josh Edgin	3.69	3.62	0.294	0.293	1.35	1.35
Clayton Richard	4.30	4.23	0.299	0.295	1.35	1.33
Joe Thatcher	3.35	3.28	0.289	0.289	1.26	1.26
C.J. Wilson	4.08	4.00	0.294	0.293	1.34	1.33
Edwin Jackson	3.96	3.88	0.295	0.293	1.29	1.28
Alex White	4.86	4.78	0.299	0.295	1.47	1.45
Tommy Hanson	4.14	4.06	0.285	0.284	1.31	1.3
Carter Capps	2.98	2.90	0.291	0.292	1.21	1.21
Michael Schwimer	3.72	3.64	0.287	0.288	1.31	1.31
Scott Diamond	4.49	4.41	0.305	0.300	1.39	1.37
Joel Hanrahan	3.50	3.42	0.293	0.293	1.31	1.31
Wade Miley	4.34	4.26	0.299	0.295	1.34	1.33
James McDonald	4.25	4.17	0.289	0.287	1.36	1.35
Matt Reynolds	3.70	3.61	0.295	0.294	1.31	1.3
Josh Lueke	3.97	3.88	0.291	0.289	1.35	1.34
Rhiner Cruz	4.65	4.56	0.291	0.289	1.53	1.53
Juan Nicasio	4.25	4.16	0.304	0.301	1.32	1.31
Anthony Swarzak	4.79	4.69	0.297	0.292	1.42	1.4
Steve Delabar	3.69	3.59	0.294	0.296	1.35	1.36
Jair Jurrjens	5.16	5.05	0.292	0.288	1.45	1.43

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Adjusting Regression Means

Posted on March 23, 2013 by J. Cross

Strikeouts are up, walks are down and we’d changed by not changing at all.

As Tango recently pointed out, Steamer was looking a a little pessimistic this year. Really, we were just a little behind the times. The good thing about basing our regression levels on pitch data is that if pitchers start throwing harder (and they have), Steamer adjusts accordingly. The bad news is that if they throw harder AND they strikeout even more batters than would be expected by this increase (they’ve done this too) we have a somewhat more complicated adjustment to make.

Our projections now attempt to take into account the league wide changes in strikeout and walk rates. The big thing you’ll notice is that ERA projections are down a bit. We’ve also added an adjustment based on the research done by Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman who found, among other things, that relievers’ strikeout rates drop off more steeply with age than starters’ strikeout rates do.

8 days till baseball… one major update to come.

Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments

March Madness: Individual Player Pools

Posted on March 20, 2013 by J. Cross

There’s an individual player pool at my wife’s office. To help out, I matched seasonal PPG with Nate Silver’s projected bracket (to determine how many games each player is expected to play in) and multiplied these to project total tournament points for each player.

I didn’t make adjustments for conference difficulty, teams’ opponents or anything else. I also didn’t include the 8 teams from “round 1″. In short, I put little time or thought into these and absolutely zero basketball expertise… but they might still be better than nothing. Here you go:

PLAYER	TEAM	PPG	Expected G	Exp Points
Russ Smith	Louisville	18.1	4.45	80.6
Cody Zeller	Indiana	16.9	4.36	73.7
Deshaun Thomas	Ohio State	19.6	3.50	68.5
Kelly Olynyk	Gonzaga	17.5	3.73	65.2
Ben McLemore	Kansas	16.4	3.81	62.4
Victor Oladipo	Indiana	13.6	4.36	59.3
Trey Burke	Michigan	19.2	3.02	58.0
Mason Plumlee	Duke	17.2	3.36	57.8
Seth Curry	Duke	17.0	3.36	57.1
Elias Harris	Gonzaga	14.9	3.73	55.5
Christian Watford	Indiana	12.5	4.36	54.5
Jeff Withey	Kansas	13.6	3.81	51.8
Erik Murphy	Florida	12.7	3.93	49.8
Kenny Boynton	Florida	12.3	3.93	48.3
Ryan Kelly	Duke	14.3	3.36	48.1
Mike Rosario	Florida	12.1	3.93	47.5
Otto Porter	Georgetown	16.3	2.86	46.6
Tim Hardaway Jr.	Michigan	14.8	3.02	44.7
Gorgui Dieng	Louisville	10.0	4.45	44.5
Peyton Siva	Louisville	10.0	4.45	44.5
Chane Behanan	Louisville	9.9	4.45	44.1
Jordan Hulls	Indiana	10.1	4.36	44.0
Shane Larkin	Miami (Fla.)	14.2	3.09	43.9
Doug McDermott	Creighton	23.1	1.90	43.9
Travis Releford	Kansas	11.5	3.81	43.8
Kevin Pangos	Gonzaga	11.5	3.73	42.9
Kenny Kadji	Miami (Fla.)	13.5	3.09	41.8
Quinn Cook	Duke	12.4	3.36	41.7
Patric Young	Florida	10.6	3.93	41.6
Durand Scott	Miami (Fla.)	13.4	3.09	41.5
Will Sheehey	Indiana	9.4	4.36	41.0
C.J. Fair	Syracuse	14.4	2.71	39.0
Keith Appling	Michigan State	13.6	2.85	38.7
Rasheed Sulaimon	Duke	11.5	3.36	38.7
Elijah Johnson	Kansas	10.1	3.81	38.4
James Southerland	Syracuse	13.9	2.71	37.7
Brandon Triche	Syracuse	13.8	2.71	37.4
Gary Harris	Michigan State	12.9	2.85	36.8
Kendall Williams	New Mexico	13.5	2.72	36.7
Rodney McGruder	Kansas State	15.7	2.30	36.1
Markel Starks	Georgetown	12.5	2.86	35.7
Scottie Wilbekin	Florida	9.1	3.93	35.7
Wayne Blackshear	Louisville	8.0	4.45	35.6
Mark Lyons	Arizona	14.8	2.39	35.3
Rotnei Clarke	Butler	16.7	2.11	35.2
Nik Stauskas	Michigan	11.5	3.02	34.7
Aaron Craft	Ohio State	9.9	3.50	34.6
Greg Whittington	Georgetown	12.1	2.86	34.6
Anthony Bennett	UNLV	16.1	2.14	34.5
Gary Bell Jr.	Gonzaga	9.2	3.73	34.3
Tony Snell	New Mexico	12.6	2.72	34.2
Kevin Ferrell	Indiana	7.8	4.36	34.0
Vander Blue	Marquette	14.3	2.35	33.6
Lenzelle Smith	Ohio State	9.6	3.50	33.6
Luke Hancock	Louisville	7.5	4.45	33.4
Michael Carter-Williams	Syracuse	12.0	2.71	32.5
Alex Kirk	New Mexico	11.9	2.72	32.3
Glenn Robinson III	Michigan	10.7	3.02	32.3
Treveon Graham	Virginia Commonwealth	15.4	2.09	32.2
Dwayne Evans	Saint Louis	13.6	2.36	32.1
Solomon Hill	Arizona	13.4	2.39	32.0
Marcus Smart	Oklahoma State	15.4	2.02	31.1
Markel Brown	Oklahoma State	15.3	2.02	30.9
Mike Muscala	Bucknell	19.0	1.59	30.2
Jamaal Franklin	San Diego State	16.7	1.80	30.1
Juvonte Reddic	Virginia Commonwealth	14.4	2.09	30.1
C.J. Leslie	North Carolina State	14.9	2.01	29.9
Adreian Payne	Michigan State	10.4	2.85	29.6
Brandon Paul	Illinois	16.6	1.78	29.6
Ben Brust	Wisconsin	11.4	2.56	29.1
Kevin Young	Kansas	7.6	3.81	28.9
Jared Berggren	Wisconsin	11.3	2.56	28.9
Le'Bryan Nash	Oklahoma State	14.1	2.02	28.5
Trey McKinney Jones	Miami (Fla.)	9.1	3.09	28.2
Nick Johnson	Arizona	11.7	2.39	27.9
James Michael McAdoo	North Carolina	14.5	1.91	27.7
Allen Crabbe	California	18.7	1.47	27.5
Marshall Henderson	Ole Miss	20.0	1.37	27.3
Spencer Dinwiddie	Colorado	15.6	1.75	27.3
Reggie Bullock	North Carolina	14.3	1.91	27.3
Derrick Nix	Michigan State	9.5	2.85	27.1
Davante Gardner	Marquette	11.5	2.35	27.0
Angel Rodriguez	Kansas State	11.7	2.30	26.9
Sam Dower	Gonzaga	7.2	3.73	26.8
Sean Kilpatrick	Cincinnati	16.9	1.59	26.8
Branden Dawson	Michigan State	9.4	2.85	26.8
Ryan Evans	Wisconsin	10.4	2.56	26.6
Laurence Bowers	Missouri	14.4	1.85	26.6
P.J. Hairston	North Carolina	13.8	1.91	26.3
LaQuinton Ross	Ohio State	7.5	3.50	26.2
Shabazz Muhammad	UCLA	17.8	1.47	26.2
Khalif Wyatt	Temple	19.8	1.32	26.1
Troy Daniels	Virginia Commonwealth	12.5	2.09	26.1
Cameron Bairstow	New Mexico	9.6	2.72	26.1
Joe Jackson	Memphis	13.6	1.92	26.1
Sam Thompson	Ohio State	7.4	3.50	25.9
Andre Hollins	Minnesota	13.9	1.86	25.9
D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera	Georgetown	9.0	2.86	25.7
Ian Clark	Belmont	18.1	1.42	25.6
Nate Wolters	South Dakota State	22.7	1.13	25.5
Richard Howell	North Carolina State	12.7	2.01	25.5
Scott Wood	North Carolina State	12.7	2.01	25.5
Montrezl Harrell	Louisville	5.7	4.45	25.4
Romero Osby	Oklahoma	15.8	1.60	25.3
Jerian Grant	Notre Dame	13.4	1.87	25.1
T.J. Warren	North Carolina State	12.4	2.01	24.9
Lamont Jones	Iona	23.0	1.08	24.8
Casey Prather	Florida	6.3	3.93	24.7
Jack Cooley	Notre Dame	13.1	1.87	24.5
Chase Tapley	San Diego State	13.5	1.80	24.3
Sam Dekker	Wisconsin	9.5	2.56	24.3
Lorenzo Brown	North Carolina State	12.1	2.01	24.3
Cody Ellis	Saint Louis	10.3	2.36	24.3
Mike McCall Jr.	Saint Louis	10.0	2.36	23.6
Kwamain Mitchell	Saint Louis	10.0	2.36	23.6
Andrew Smith	Butler	11.1	2.11	23.4
Jake Cohen	Davidson	14.8	1.58	23.4
Tray Woodall	Pittsburgh	11.8	1.98	23.3
Michael Frazier II	Florida	5.9	3.93	23.2
Will Clyburn	Iowa State	15.0	1.53	23.0
Justin Cobbs	California	15.5	1.47	22.8
Adonis Thomas	Memphis	11.9	1.92	22.8
Reggie Johnson	Miami (Fla.)	7.3	3.09	22.6
Jordan Adams	UCLA	15.3	1.47	22.5
Anthony Marshall	UNLV	10.5	2.14	22.5
Rob Brandenberg	Virginia Commonwealth	10.6	2.09	22.1
D.J. Richardson	Illinois	12.4	1.78	22.1
Jamil Wilson	Marquette	9.4	2.35	22.1
Perry Ellis	Kansas	5.8	3.81	22.1
Jordair Jett	Saint Louis	9.3	2.36	21.9
De'Mon Brooks	Davidson	13.8	1.58	21.8
Jabari Brown	Oregon	13.7	1.59	21.7
Askia Booker	Colorado	12.4	1.75	21.7
Bryce Dejean-Jones	UNLV	10.1	2.14	21.6
Katin Reinhardt	UNLV	10.1	2.14	21.6
Will Yeguete	Florida	5.5	3.93	21.6
Phil Pressey	Missouri	11.6	1.85	21.4
Eric Atkins	Notre Dame	11.4	1.87	21.3
Roosevelt Jones	Butler	10.1	2.11	21.3
Colton Iverson	Colorado State	14.7	1.43	21.0
Phil Forte	Oklahoma State	10.4	2.02	21.0
Naadir Tharpe	Kansas	5.5	3.81	20.9
Kellen Dunham	Butler	9.9	2.11	20.9
Khyle Marshall	Butler	9.9	2.11	20.9
Nate Lubick	Georgetown	7.2	2.86	20.6
Cleanthony Early	Wichita State	13.6	1.51	20.6
Chris Crawford	Memphis	10.7	1.92	20.5
Przemek Karnowski	Gonzaga	5.5	3.73	20.5
Keion Bell	Missouri	11.1	1.85	20.5
Alex Oriakhi	Missouri	11.1	1.85	20.5
Junior Cadougan	Marquette	8.7	2.35	20.4
Julian Gamble	Miami (Fla.)	6.6	3.09	20.4
Tyrus McGee	Iowa State	13.2	1.53	20.2
Geron Johnson	Memphis	10.5	1.92	20.1
Cashmere Wright	Cincinnati	12.6	1.59	20.0
Ryan Broekhoff	Valparaiso	15.9	1.25	19.9
Cameron Ayers	Bucknell	12.5	1.59	19.9
Kevin Parrom	Arizona	8.3	2.39	19.8
Lamar Patterson	Pittsburgh	10.0	1.98	19.8
Austin Hollins	Minnesota	10.6	1.86	19.7
Murphy Holloway	Ole Miss	14.4	1.37	19.7
Kevin Ware	Louisville	4.4	4.45	19.6
Hugh Greenwood	New Mexico	7.2	2.72	19.6
Kerron Johnson	Belmont	13.7	1.42	19.4
Talib Zanna	Pittsburgh	9.8	1.98	19.4
Carl Hall	Wichita State	12.8	1.51	19.4
Rodney Williams Jr.	Minnesota	10.3	1.86	19.2
Andre Roberson	Colorado	10.9	1.75	19.1
Wesley Saunders	Harvard	16.5	1.16	19.1
Earnest Ross	Missouri	10.3	1.85	19.0
Tracy Abrams	Illinois	10.6	1.78	18.9
Steven Pledger	Oklahoma	11.8	1.60	18.9
Mitch McGary	Michigan	6.2	3.02	18.7
Shane Southwell	Kansas State	8.1	2.30	18.6
Trevor Mbakwe	Minnesota	10.0	1.86	18.6
Evan Ravenel	Ohio State	5.3	3.50	18.5
Daniel Mullings	New Mexico State	14.0	1.32	18.5
E.J. Singler	Oregon	11.6	1.59	18.4
Georges Niang	Iowa State	12.0	1.53	18.4
Brandon Ashley	Arizona	7.7	2.39	18.4
Dorian Green	Colorado State	12.8	1.43	18.3
Gregory Echenique	Creighton	9.6	1.90	18.2
Thomas Gipson	Kansas State	7.9	2.30	18.2
Wes Eikmeier	Colorado State	12.7	1.43	18.2
JayVaughn Pinkston	Villanova	13.1	1.39	18.1
Josh Scott	Colorado	10.3	1.75	18.0
Rion Brown	Miami (Fla.)	5.8	3.09	17.9
JaQuon Parker	Cincinnati	11.3	1.59	17.9
Sean Armand	Iona	16.6	1.08	17.9
Remy Abell	Indiana	4.1	4.36	17.9
Trevor Noack	Belmont	12.5	1.42	17.7
Zeke Marshall	Akron	13.0	1.36	17.7
Xavier Thames	San Diego State	9.8	1.80	17.7
Bryson Johnson	Bucknell	11.1	1.59	17.6
Dundrecous Nelson	Ole Miss	12.8	1.37	17.5
Carlos Emory	Oregon	11.0	1.59	17.5
Sherwood Brown	Florida Gulf Coast	15.3	1.14	17.4
Traevon Jackson	Wisconsin	6.8	2.56	17.4
Will Spradling	Kansas State	7.5	2.30	17.3
Rob Loe	Saint Louis	7.3	2.36	17.2
Melvin Ejim	Iowa State	11.2	1.53	17.2
Jean-Paul Olukemi	Oklahoma State	8.5	2.02	17.2
Mikael Hopkins	Georgetown	6.0	2.86	17.1
Damyean Dotson	Oregon	10.8	1.59	17.1
Shannon Scott	Ohio State	4.9	3.50	17.1
Rodney Purvis	North Carolina State	8.5	2.01	17.1
Mathias Ward	Montana	14.8	1.15	17.0
Pat Connaughton	Notre Dame	9.0	1.87	16.8
Kareem Jamar	Montana	14.5	1.15	16.7
Trent Lockett	Marquette	7.1	2.35	16.7
Mike Bruesewitz	Wisconsin	6.5	2.56	16.6
Ryan Arcidiacono	Villanova	12.0	1.39	16.6
Travis Wear	UCLA	11.2	1.47	16.5
Joe Willman	Bucknell	10.3	1.59	16.4
Grant Gibbs	Creighton	8.6	1.90	16.3
Jabril Trawick	Georgetown	5.7	2.86	16.3
Derick Beltran	Southern	15.9	1.02	16.2
Joe Coleman	Minnesota	8.7	1.86	16.2
Amath M'Baye	Oklahoma	10.1	1.60	16.2
Malcolm Miller	Southern	15.8	1.02	16.1
J.J. Moore	Pittsburgh	8.1	1.98	16.0
Will Cherry	Montana	13.9	1.15	16.0
Bernard Thompson	Florida Gulf Coast	14.0	1.14	16.0
Kevin Van Wijk	Valparaiso	12.7	1.25	15.9
Greg Smith	Colorado State	11.1	1.43	15.9
Mike Black	Albany	14.9	1.07	15.9
Xavier Johnson	Colorado	9.0	1.75	15.8
Malcolm Armstead	Wichita State	10.4	1.51	15.7
T.J. Price	Western Kentucky	15.3	1.02	15.6
Scootie Randall	Temple	11.8	1.32	15.6
Darrun Hilliard	Villanova	11.2	1.39	15.5
Kaleb Tarczewski	Arizona	6.5	2.39	15.5
Nik Cochran	Davidson	9.8	1.58	15.5
Demetrius Treadwell	Akron	11.4	1.36	15.5
Bishop Daniels	Miami (Fla.)	5.0	3.09	15.5
Dexter Strickland	North Carolina	8.1	1.91	15.5
Bandja Sy	New Mexico State	11.7	1.32	15.4
Khem Birch	UNLV	7.2	2.14	15.4
Mike Moser	UNLV	7.2	2.14	15.4
Jordan Morgan	Michigan	5.1	3.02	15.4
Tarik Black	Memphis	8.0	1.92	15.3
Korie Lucious	Iowa State	9.9	1.53	15.2
DeQuan Hicks	Northwestern State	14.1	1.07	15.1
Tony Woods	Oregon	9.5	1.59	15.1
Darius Theus	Virginia Commonwealth	7.2	2.09	15.0
Shaq Goodwin	Memphis	7.8	1.92	15.0
Siyani Chambers	Harvard	12.9	1.16	14.9
J.J. Mann	Belmont	10.5	1.42	14.9
Melvin Johnson	Virginia Commonwealth	7.1	2.09	14.8
Scott Martin	Notre Dame	7.9	1.87	14.8
Arsalan Kazemi	Oregon	9.3	1.59	14.8
Marcus Paige	North Carolina	7.7	1.91	14.7
Ethan Wragge	Creighton	7.7	1.90	14.6
D.J. Stephens	Memphis	7.6	1.92	14.6
Todd Mayo	Marquette	6.2	2.35	14.6
Chris Czerapowicz	Davidson	9.2	1.58	14.5
Denzel Valentine	Michigan State	5.1	2.85	14.5
Amile Jefferson	Duke	4.3	3.36	14.5
Kyle Anderson	UCLA	9.8	1.47	14.4
Rakeem Christmas	Syracuse	5.3	2.71	14.4
Leslie McDonald	North Carolina	7.5	1.91	14.3
Chris Babb	Iowa State	9.3	1.53	14.3
Tyrone Watson	New Mexico State	10.8	1.32	14.2
David Laury	Iona	13.1	1.08	14.1
Austin Chatman	Creighton	7.4	1.90	14.1
Jordan Dykstra	South Dakota State	12.5	1.13	14.1
Alex Abreu	Akron	10.3	1.36	14.0
Michael Cobbins	Oklahoma State	6.9	2.02	13.9
Chase Fieler	Florida Gulf Coast	12.2	1.14	13.9
Steven Adams	Pittsburgh	7.0	1.98	13.8
Blake Jenkins	Belmont	9.7	1.42	13.7
Travis Trice	Michigan State	4.8	2.85	13.7
Demetrius Walker	New Mexico	5.0	2.72	13.6
Joseph Bertrand	Illinois	7.6	1.78	13.5
Dominic Artis	Oregon	8.5	1.59	13.5
Sim Bhullar	New Mexico State	10.2	1.32	13.4
Mouphtaou Yarou	Villanova	9.7	1.39	13.4
David Stockton	Gonzaga	3.6	3.73	13.4
Shamir Davis	Northwestern State	12.5	1.07	13.4
JJ O'Brien	San Diego State	7.4	1.80	13.3
Josh Jones	Creighton	7.0	1.90	13.3
Garrick Sherman	Notre Dame	7.1	1.87	13.3
Anthony Lee	Temple	10.0	1.32	13.2
Nick Harney	Akron	9.7	1.36	13.2
George Fant	Western Kentucky	12.9	1.02	13.2
Jeremy Hollowell	Indiana	3.0	4.36	13.1
Reginald Buckner	Ole Miss	9.5	1.37	13.0
James Hulbin	Northwestern State	12.1	1.07	13.0
Amir Williams	Ohio State	3.7	3.50	12.9
Jacob Iati	Albany	12.1	1.07	12.9
Lorenzo McCloud	Pacific	11.4	1.13	12.9
JP Kuhlman	Davidson	8.1	1.58	12.8
Buddy Hield	Oklahoma	8.0	1.60	12.8
Tyler Griffey	Illinois	7.1	1.78	12.7
Grant Jerrett	Arizona	5.3	2.39	12.6
Demetric Williams	Wichita State	8.3	1.51	12.5
Chad Adams	New Mexico	4.6	2.72	12.5
Pierce Hornung	Colorado State	8.7	1.43	12.4
Richard Solomon	California	8.4	1.47	12.4
Tyler Kalinoski	Davidson	7.8	1.58	12.3

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Updated Steamer Projections

Posted on March 17, 2013 by J. Cross

Our updated projections include three important additions:

*Hiroyuki Nakajima, Kyuji Fujikawa and Hyun-Jin Ryu have been added.

*Pitcher ERAs now take into account our team defense projections. This will help the pitchers on the Angels among others and hurt the pitchers on the Blue Jays and Rockies. (Note: the team defense projections differ between Razzball and Fangraphs since the projected playing time differs.) Thanks to the guys behind them, Jered Weaver’s ERA falls from 4.10 to 3.99 while R.A. Dickey’s moves in the opposite direction, from 3.98 to 4.07.

*Thanks to the work of Clint Hulsey who compiled fastball velocities based on scouting reports on his I R Fast blog, Minor League fastball velocities have been added for 489 minor league pitchers. Bruce Rondon gets a major boost in his strikeout rate and his ERA falls all the way from 5.34 to 4.08. Gerrit Cole goes from 4.47 to 4.17.

We’ll keep updating playing time bit by bit and should have one last significant update that will come immediately before the season starts (we might even get to see Jered Weaver’s ERA fall once again). During the season, our projections will be updated on Razzball and Fangraphs. If you have a draft coming up, you can get discounted Rotochamp software through the ad on our Downloads page and send some money back our way in the process.

Posted in Uncategorized | 14 Comments

Oh, the Dreaded Bias!

Posted on February 28, 2013 by J. Cross

Two days ago, Dave Cameron wrote about the players Steamer and Zips disagree on the most, showing that Steamer is a little down on Jurickson Profar, Bryce Harper and a few others. In the comments, mattybobo pointed out that Steamer has atypically low BABIP projections for players with no MLB experience and that this looked like a mistake.

Well, I did some checking and, um, he’s right.

More specifically, Steamer was adjusting down the rate at which hitters get singles too aggressively when forming Major League Equivalencies (using what should be the adjustment factor for *all hits* rather than the adjustment factor for singles). Anyway, after making some adjustments, I checked our year to year MLE BABIPs for batters who moved up a level, batters who repeated a level and batters who made the jump the majors and can now feel comfortable standing behind our projections.

Players whose projections were based largely on minor league stats, of course, see the most benefit. Profar jumps up from .232/.301/.370 to .247/.315/.386. Bryce Harper’s move is less drastic, from .257/.329/.450 to .263/.335/.457. Both projections are still notably pessimistic compared to the other forecasters on Fangraphs (ZiPS, Oliver, James and the Fans), and this is always cause to be wary, but the gap has narrowed somewhat.

One last note, our adjusted system will still, to some extent, under-project players who go from the minors to a full MLB season. Historically, players who had more than 300 MLB PA following a season with 300 minor league PA’s over performed their Steamer BABIP MLEs. I’m okay with that. A Jurickson Profar who gets close to a full season’s worth of PA is more likely to be a Profar who has exceeded expectations than one who has fallen short. This gets tricky though and it’s something we’ll need to revisit in the future with a little more data on hand.

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An Extra 5 Miles per Hour… v.2

Posted on November 17, 2012 by J. Cross

Revisiting my last post, I thought it would make more sense to focus on the region in and immediately around the strike zone and to create smoother plots (click to zoom in).

Continue reading →

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An Extra 5 Miles per Hour

Posted on November 16, 2012 by J. Cross

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MLE kwERA 2012

Posted on November 16, 2012 by J. Cross

Here, presented without comment, are the top 100 Major League Equivalent kwERA’s for minor league pitchers during the 2012 season (pitchers with more than 100 batters faced). Players are listed by the highest level team for which they played in 2012.

Note: kwERA = 5.4-12*(K-BB)/PA

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Steamer Projections Blog

The Hollow Under the Knee

Final 2013 Steamer Projections

The Rosenheck Factor

Adjusting Regression Means

March Madness: Individual Player Pools

Updated Steamer Projections

Oh, the Dreaded Bias!

An Extra 5 Miles per Hour… v.2

An Extra 5 Miles per Hour

MLE kwERA 2012

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